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Conformal inference is a fundamental and versatile tool that provides distribution-free guarantees for many machine learning tasks. We consider the transductive setting, where decisions are made on a test sample of $m$ new points, giving rise to $m$ conformal $p$-values. {While classical results only concern their marginal distribution, we show that their joint distribution follows a P\'olya urn model, and establish a concentration inequality for their empirical distribution function.} The results hold for arbitrary exchangeable scores, including {\it adaptive} ones that can use the covariates of the test+calibration samples at training stage for increased accuracy. We demonstrate the usefulness of these theoretical results through uniform, in-probability guarantees for two machine learning tasks of current interest: interval prediction for transductive transfer learning and novelty detection based on two-class classification.

We consider optimal experimental design (OED) for Bayesian nonlinear inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) under model uncertainty. Specifically, we consider inverse problems in which, in addition to the inversion parameters, the governing PDEs include secondary uncertain parameters. We focus on problems with infinite-dimensional inversion and secondary parameters and present a scalable computational framework for optimal design of such problems. The proposed approach enables Bayesian inversion and OED under uncertainty within a unified framework. We build on the Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach, to incorporate modeling uncertainties in the Bayesian inverse problem, and methods for A-optimal design of infinite-dimensional Bayesian nonlinear inverse problems. Specifically, a Gaussian approximation to the posterior at the maximum a posteriori probability point is used to define an uncertainty aware OED objective that is tractable to evaluate and optimize. In particular, the OED objective can be computed at a cost, in the number of PDE solves, that does not grow with the dimension of the discretized inversion and secondary parameters. The OED problem is formulated as a binary bilevel PDE constrained optimization problem and a greedy algorithm, which provides a pragmatic approach, is used to find optimal designs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for a model inverse problem governed by an elliptic PDE on a three-dimensional domain. Our computational results also highlight the pitfalls of ignoring modeling uncertainties in the OED and/or inference stages.

Ensemble forecasts and their combination are explored from the perspective of a probability space. Manipulating ensemble forecasts as discrete probability distributions, multi-model ensembles (MMEs) are reformulated as barycenters of these distributions. Barycenters are defined with respect to a given distance. The barycenter with respect to the L2-distance is shown to be equivalent to the pooling method. Then, the barycenter-based approach is extended to a different distance with interesting properties in the distribution space: the Wasserstein distance. Another interesting feature of the barycenter approach is the possibility to give different weights to the ensembles and so to naturally build weighted MME. As a proof of concept, the L2- and the Wasserstein-barycenters are applied to combine two models from the S2S database, namely the European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) models. The performance of the two (weighted-) MMEs are evaluated for the prediction of weekly 2m-temperature over Europe for seven winters. The weights given to the models in the barycenters are optimized with respect to two metrics, the CRPS and the proportion of skilful forecasts. These weights have an important impact on the skill of the two barycenter-based MMEs. Although the ECMWF model has an overall better performance than NCEP, the barycenter-ensembles are generally able to outperform both. However, the best MME method, but also the weights, are dependent on the metric. These results constitute a promising first implementation of this methodology before moving to combination of more models.

The fundamental computational issues in Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs) governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) stem from the requirement of repeated forward model evaluations. A popular strategy to reduce such cost is to replace expensive model simulations by computationally efficient approximations using operator learning, motivated by recent progresses in deep learning. However, using the approximated model directly may introduce a modeling error, exacerbating the already ill-posedness of inverse problems. Thus, balancing between accuracy and efficiency is essential for the effective implementation of such approaches. To this end, we develop an adaptive operator learning framework that can reduce modeling error gradually by forcing the surrogate to be accurate in local areas. This is accomplished by fine-tuning the pre-trained approximate model during the inversion process with adaptive points selected by a greedy algorithm, which requires only a few forward model evaluations. To validate our approach, we adopt DeepOnet to construct the surrogate and use unscented Kalman inversion (UKI) to approximate the solution of BIPs, respectively. Furthermore, we present rigorous convergence guarantee in the linear case using the framework of UKI. We test the approach on several benchmarks, including the Darcy flow, the heat source inversion problem, and the reaction diffusion problems. Numerical results demonstrate that our method can significantly reduce computational costs while maintaining inversion accuracy.

For problems of time-harmonic scattering by rational polygonal obstacles, embedding formulae express the far-field pattern induced by any incident plane wave in terms of the far-field patterns for a relatively small (frequency-independent) set of canonical incident angles. Although these remarkable formulae are exact in theory, here we demonstrate that: (i) they are highly sensitive to numerical errors in practice, and; (ii) direct calculation of the coefficients in these formulae may be impossible for particular sets of canonical incident angles, even in exact arithmetic. Only by overcoming these practical issues can embedding formulae provide a highly efficient approach to computing the far-field pattern induced by a large number of incident angles. Here we propose solutions for problems (i) and (ii), backed up by theory and numerical experiments. Problem (i) is solved using techniques from computational complex analysis: we reformulate the embedding formula as a complex contour integral and prove that this is much less sensitive to numerical errors. In practice, this contour integral can be efficiently evaluated by residue calculus. Problem (ii) is addressed using techniques from numerical linear algebra: we oversample, considering more canonical incident angles than are necessary, thus expanding the space of valid coefficients vectors. The coefficients vectors can then be selected using either a least squares approach or column subset selection.

We propose a method to detect model misspecifications in nonlinear causal additive and potentially heteroscedastic noise models. We aim to identify predictor variables for which we can infer the causal effect even in cases of such misspecification. We develop a general framework based on knowledge of the multivariate observational data distribution and we then propose an algorithm for finite sample data, discuss its asymptotic properties, and illustrate its performance on simulated and real data.

We develop a novel discontinuous Galerkin method for solving the rotating thermal shallow water equations (TRSW) on a curvilinear mesh. Our method is provably entropy stable, conserves mass, buoyancy and vorticity, while also semi-discretely conserving energy. This is achieved by using novel numerical fluxes and splitting the pressure and convection operators. We implement our method on a cubed sphere mesh and numerically verify our theoretical results. Our experiments demonstrate the robustness of the method for a regime of well developed turbulence, where it can be run stably without any dissipation. The entropy stable fluxes are sufficient to control the grid scale noise generated by geostrophic turbulence, eliminating the need for artificial stabilization.

We propose an augmented Lagrangian-based preconditioner to accelerate the convergence of Krylov subspace methods applied to linear systems of equations with a block three-by-three structure such as those arising from mixed finite element discretizations of the coupled Stokes-Darcy flow problem. We analyze the spectrum of the preconditioned matrix and we show how the new preconditioner can be efficiently applied. Numerical experiments are reported to illustrate the effectiveness of the preconditioner in conjunction with flexible GMRES for solving linear systems of equations arising from a 3D test problem.

Feature attribution is a fundamental task in both machine learning and data analysis, which involves determining the contribution of individual features or variables to a model's output. This process helps identify the most important features for predicting an outcome. The history of feature attribution methods can be traced back to General Additive Models (GAMs), which extend linear regression models by incorporating non-linear relationships between dependent and independent variables. In recent years, gradient-based methods and surrogate models have been applied to unravel complex Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems, but these methods have limitations. GAMs tend to achieve lower accuracy, gradient-based methods can be difficult to interpret, and surrogate models often suffer from stability and fidelity issues. Furthermore, most existing methods do not consider users' contexts, which can significantly influence their preferences. To address these limitations and advance the current state-of-the-art, we define a novel feature attribution framework called Context-Aware Feature Attribution Through Argumentation (CA-FATA). Our framework harnesses the power of argumentation by treating each feature as an argument that can either support, attack or neutralize a prediction. Additionally, CA-FATA formulates feature attribution as an argumentation procedure, and each computation has explicit semantics, which makes it inherently interpretable. CA-FATA also easily integrates side information, such as users' contexts, resulting in more accurate predictions.

The multispecies Landau collision operator describes the two-particle, small scattering angle or grazing collisions in a plasma made up of different species of particles such as electrons and ions. Recently, a structure preserving deterministic particle method arXiv:1910.03080 has been developed for the single species spatially homogeneous Landau equation. This method relies on a regularization of the Landau collision operator so that an approximate solution, which is a linear combination of Dirac delta distributions, is well-defined. Based on a weak form of the regularized Landau equation, the time dependent locations of the Dirac delta functions satisfy a system of ordinary differential equations. In this work, we extend this particle method to the multispecies case, and examine its conservation of mass, momentum, and energy, and decay of entropy properties. We show that the equilibrium distribution of the regularized multispecies Landau equation is a Maxwellian distribution, and state a critical condition on the regularization parameters that guarantees a species independent equilibrium temperature. A convergence study comparing an exact multispecies BKW solution to the particle solution shows approximately 2nd order accuracy. Important physical properties such as conservation, decay of entropy, and equilibrium distribution of the particle method are demonstrated with several numerical examples.