The arboricity of a graph is the minimum number of forests required to cover all its edges. In this paper, we examine arboricity from a game-theoretic perspective and investigate cost-sharing in the minimum forest cover problem. We introduce the arboricity game as a cooperative cost game defined on a graph. The players are edges, and the cost of each coalition is the arboricity of the subgraph induced by the coalition. We study properties of the core and propose an efficient algorithm for computing the nucleolus when the core is not empty. In order to compute the nucleolus in the core, we introduce the prime partition which is built on the densest subgraph lattice. The prime partition decomposes the edge set of a graph into a partially ordered set defined from minimal densest minors and their invariant precedence relation. Moreover, edges from the same partition always have the same value in a core allocation. Consequently, when the core is not empty, the prime partition significantly reduces the number of variables and constraints required in the linear programs of Maschler's scheme and allows us to compute the nucleolus in polynomial time. Besides, the prime partition provides a graph decomposition analogous to the celebrated core decomposition and the density-friendly decomposition, which may be of independent interest.
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The stochastic nature of iterative optimization heuristics leads to inherently noisy performance measurements. Since these measurements are often gathered once and then used repeatedly, the number of collected samples will have a significant impact on the reliability of algorithm comparisons. We show that care should be taken when making decisions based on limited data. Particularly, we show that the number of runs used in many benchmarking studies, e.g., the default value of 15 suggested by the COCO environment, can be insufficient to reliably rank algorithms on well-known numerical optimization benchmarks. Additionally, methods for automated algorithm configuration are sensitive to insufficient sample sizes. This may result in the configurator choosing a `lucky' but poor-performing configuration despite exploring better ones. We show that relying on mean performance values, as many configurators do, can require a large number of runs to provide accurate comparisons between the considered configurations. Common statistical tests can greatly improve the situation in most cases but not always. We show examples of performance losses of more than 20%, even when using statistical races to dynamically adjust the number of runs, as done by irace. Our results underline the importance of appropriately considering the statistical distribution of performance values.
Applications of Reinforcement Learning (RL), in which agents learn to make a sequence of decisions despite lacking complete information about the latent states of the controlled system, that is, they act under partial observability of the states, are ubiquitous. Partially observable RL can be notoriously difficult -- well-known information-theoretic results show that learning partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) requires an exponential number of samples in the worst case. Yet, this does not rule out the existence of large subclasses of POMDPs over which learning is tractable. In this paper we identify such a subclass, which we call weakly revealing POMDPs. This family rules out the pathological instances of POMDPs where observations are uninformative to a degree that makes learning hard. We prove that for weakly revealing POMDPs, a simple algorithm combining optimism and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is sufficient to guarantee polynomial sample complexity. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first provably sample-efficient result for learning from interactions in overcomplete POMDPs, where the number of latent states can be larger than the number of observations.
In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for log-spacings of top order statistics. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are investigated analytically and found to be asymptotically unbiased, consistent and normally distributed. Also, the finite sample behaviour of the estimators are studied through a simulations theory. The proposed estimators were found to yield low bias and MSE. In addition, the proposed estimators are illustrated through the estimation of the tail index of the underlying distribution of claims from the insurance industry.
In this study, we examine a clustering problem in which the covariates of each individual element in a dataset are associated with an uncertainty specific to that element. More specifically, we consider a clustering approach in which a pre-processing applying a non-linear transformation to the covariates is used to capture the hidden data structure. To this end, we approximate the sets representing the propagated uncertainty for the pre-processed features empirically. To exploit the empirical uncertainty sets, we propose a greedy and optimistic clustering (GOC) algorithm that finds better feature candidates over such sets, yielding more condensed clusters. As an important application, we apply the GOC algorithm to synthetic datasets of the orbital properties of stars generated through our numerical simulation mimicking the formation process of the Milky Way. The GOC algorithm demonstrates an improved performance in finding sibling stars originating from the same dwarf galaxy. These realistic datasets have also been made publicly available.
We introduce a restriction of the classical 2-party deterministic communication protocol where Alice and Bob are restricted to using only comparison functions. We show that the complexity of a function in the model is, up to a constant factor, determined by a complexity measure analogous to Yao's tiling number, which we call the geometric tiling number which can be computed in polynomial time. As a warm-up, we consider an analogous restricted decision tree model and observe a 1-dimensional analog of the above results.
In this paper we study the finite sample and asymptotic properties of various weighting estimators of the local average treatment effect (LATE), several of which are based on Abadie (2003)'s kappa theorem. Our framework presumes a binary endogenous explanatory variable ("treatment") and a binary instrumental variable, which may only be valid after conditioning on additional covariates. We argue that one of the Abadie estimators, which we show is weight normalized, is likely to dominate the others in many contexts. A notable exception is in settings with one-sided noncompliance, where certain unnormalized estimators have the advantage of being based on a denominator that is bounded away from zero. We use a simulation study and three empirical applications to illustrate our findings. In applications to causal effects of college education using the college proximity instrument (Card, 1995) and causal effects of childbearing using the sibling sex composition instrument (Angrist and Evans, 1998), the unnormalized estimates are clearly unreasonable, with "incorrect" signs, magnitudes, or both. Overall, our results suggest that (i) the relative performance of different kappa weighting estimators varies with features of the data-generating process; and that (ii) the normalized version of Tan (2006)'s estimator may be an attractive alternative in many contexts. Applied researchers with access to a binary instrumental variable should also consider covariate balancing or doubly robust estimators of the LATE.
We consider the classic motion planning problem defined over a roadmap in which a vehicle seeks to find an optimal path from a source to a destination in presence of an attacker who can launch attacks on the vehicle over any edge of the roadmap. The vehicle (defender) has the capability to switch on/off a countermeasure that can detect and permanently disable the attack if it occurs concurrently. We model the problem of traveling along en edge using the framework of a simultaneous zero-sum dynamic game (edge-game) with a stopping state played between an attacker and defender. We characterize the Nash equiliria of an edge-game and provide closed form expressions for two actions per player. We further provide an analytic and approximate expression on the value of an edge-game and characterize conditions under which it grows sub-linearly with the number of stages. We study the sensitivity of Nash equilibrium to the (i) cost of using the countermeasure, (ii) cost of motion and (iii) benefit of disabling the attack. The solution of an edge-game is used to formulate and solve for the secure planning problem known as a meta-game. We design an efficient heuristic by converting the problem to a shortest path problem using the edge cost as the solution of corresponding edge-games. We illustrate our findings through several insightful simulations.
The minimum energy path (MEP) describes the mechanism of reaction, and the energy barrier along the path can be used to calculate the reaction rate in thermal systems. The nudged elastic band (NEB) method is one of the most commonly used schemes to compute MEPs numerically. It approximates an MEP by a discrete set of configuration images, where the discretization size determines both computational cost and accuracy of the simulations. In this paper, we consider a discrete MEP to be a stationary state of the NEB method and prove an optimal convergence rate of the discrete MEP with respect to the number of images. Numerical simulations for the transitions of some several proto-typical model systems are performed to support the theory.
We recall some of the history of the information-theoretic approach to deriving core results in probability theory and indicate parts of the recent resurgence of interest in this area with current progress along several interesting directions. Then we give a new information-theoretic proof of a finite version of de Finetti's classical representation theorem for finite-valued random variables. We derive an upper bound on the relative entropy between the distribution of the first $k$ in a sequence of $n$ exchangeable random variables, and an appropriate mixture over product distributions. The mixing measure is characterised as the law of the empirical measure of the original sequence, and de Finetti's result is recovered as a corollary. The proof is nicely motivated by the Gibbs conditioning principle in connection with statistical mechanics, and it follows along an appealing sequence of steps. The technical estimates required for these steps are obtained via the use of a collection of combinatorial tools known within information theory as `the method of types.'
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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