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Game engines are increasingly used as simulation platforms by the autonomous vehicle (AV) community to develop vehicle control systems and test environments. A key requirement for simulation-based development and verification is determinism, since a deterministic process will always produce the same output given the same initial conditions and event history. Thus, in a deterministic simulation environment, tests are rendered repeatable and yield simulation results that are trustworthy and straightforward to debug. However, game engines are seldom deterministic. This paper reviews and identifies the potential causes of non-deterministic behaviours in game engines. A case study using CARLA, an open-source autonomous driving simulation environment powered by Unreal Engine, is presented to highlight its inherent shortcomings in providing sufficient precision in experimental results. Different configurations and utilisations of the software and hardware are explored to determine an operational domain where the simulation precision is sufficiently low i.e.\ variance between repeated executions becomes negligible for development and testing work. Finally, a method of a general nature is proposed, that can be used to find the domains of permissible variance in game engine simulations for any given system configuration.

This paper addresses the ability to enable machines to automatically detect failures on machine tool components as well as estimating the severity of the failures, which is a critical step towards autonomous production machines. Extracting information about the severity of failures has been a substantial part of classical, as well as Machine Learning based machine vision systems. Efforts have been undertaken to automatically predict the severity of failures on machine tool components for predictive maintenance purposes. Though, most approaches only partly cover a completely automatic system from detecting failures to the prognosis of their future severity. To the best of the authors knowledge, this is the first time a vision-based system for defect detection and prognosis of failures on metallic surfaces in general and on Ball Screw Drives in specific has been proposed. The authors show that they can do both, detect and prognose the evolution of a failure on the surface of a Ball Screw Drive.

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are gaining immense attention due to their potential to revolutionize various businesses and industries. However, the adoption of UAV-assisted applications will strongly rely on the provision of reliable systems that allow managing UAV operations at high levels of safety and security. Recently, the concept of UAV traffic management (UTM) has been introduced to support safe, efficient, and fair access to low-altitude airspace for commercial UAVs. A UTM system identifies multiple cooperating parties with different roles and levels of authority to provide real-time services to airspace users. However, current UTM systems are centralized and lack a clear definition of protocols that govern a secure interaction between authorities, service providers, and end-users. The lack of such protocols renders the UTM system unscalable and prone to various cyber attacks. Another limitation of the currently proposed UTM architecture is the absence of an efficient mechanism to enforce airspace rules and regulations. To address this issue, we propose a decentralized UTM protocol that controls access to airspace while ensuring high levels of integrity, availability, and confidentiality of airspace operations. To achieve this, we exploit key features of the blockchain and smart contract technologies. In addition, we employ a mobile crowdsensing (MCS) mechanism to seamlessly enforce airspace rules and regulations that govern the UAV operations. The solution is implemented on top of the Etheruem platform and verified using four different smart contract verification tools. We also provided a security and cost analysis of our solution. For reproducibility, we made our implementation publicly available on Github.

Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting, however, forecasting models may often underestimate the current and future disease burden. In this paper, we propose a general framework for addressing reporting delay in disease forecasting efforts with the goal of improving forecasts. We propose strategies for leveraging either historical data on case reporting or external internet-based data to estimate the amount of reporting error. We then describe several approaches for adapting general forecasting pipelines to account for under- or over-reporting of cases. We apply these methods to address reporting delay in data on dengue fever cases in Puerto Rico from 1990 to 2009 and to reports of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United States between 2010 and 2019. Through a simulation study, we compare method performance and evaluate robustness to assumption violations. Our results show that forecasting accuracy and prediction coverage almost always increase when correction methods are implemented to address reporting delay. Some of these methods required knowledge about the reporting error or high quality external data, which may not always be available. Provided alternatives include excluding recently-reported data and performing sensitivity analysis. This work provides intuition and guidance for handling delay in disease case reporting and may serve as a useful resource to inform practical infectious disease forecasting efforts.

The design and operation of modern energy systems are heavily influenced by time-dependent and uncertain parameters, e.g., renewable electricity generation, load-demand, and electricity prices. These are typically represented by a set of discrete realizations known as scenarios. A popular scenario generation approach uses deep generative models (DGM) that allow scenario generation without prior assumptions about the data distribution. However, the validation of generated scenarios is difficult, and a comprehensive discussion about appropriate validation methods is currently lacking. To start this discussion, we provide a critical assessment of the currently used validation methods in the energy scenario generation literature. In particular, we assess validation methods based on probability density, auto-correlation, and power spectral density. Furthermore, we propose using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) as an additional validation method for non-trivial features like peaks, bursts, and plateaus. As representative examples, we train generative adversarial networks (GANs), Wasserstein GANs (WGANs), and variational autoencoders (VAEs) on two renewable power generation time series (photovoltaic and wind from Germany in 2013 to 2015) and an intra-day electricity price time series form the European Energy Exchange in 2017 to 2019. We apply the four validation methods to both the historical and the generated data and discuss the interpretation of validation results as well as common mistakes, pitfalls, and limitations of the validation methods. Our assessment shows that no single method sufficiently characterizes a scenario but ideally validation should include multiple methods and be interpreted carefully in the context of scenarios over short time periods.

There are proposals that extend the classical generalized additive models (GAMs) to accommodate high-dimensional data ($p>>n$) using group sparse regularization. However, the sparse regularization may induce excess shrinkage when estimating smoothing functions, damaging predictive performance. Moreover, most of these GAMs consider an "all-in-all-out" approach for functional selection, rendering them difficult to answer if nonlinear effects are necessary. While some Bayesian models can address these shortcomings, using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for model fitting creates a new challenge, scalability. Hence, we propose Bayesian hierarchical generalized additive models as a solution: we consider the smoothing penalty for proper shrinkage of curve interpolation and separation of smoothing function linear and nonlinear spaces. A novel spike-and-slab spline prior is proposed to select components of smoothing functions. Two scalable and deterministic algorithms, EM-Coordinate Descent and EM-Iterative Weighted Least Squares, are developed for different utilities. Simulation studies and metabolomics data analyses demonstrate improved predictive or computational performance against state-of-the-art models, mgcv, COSSO and sparse Bayesian GAM. The software implementation of the proposed models is freely available via an R package BHAM.

Uncertainty modeling is critical in trajectory forecasting systems for both interpretation and safety reasons. To better predict the future trajectories of multiple agents, recent works have introduced interaction modules to capture interactions among agents. This approach leads to correlations among the predicted trajectories. However, the uncertainty brought by such correlations is neglected. To fill this gap, we propose a novel concept, collaborative uncertainty(CU), which models the uncertainty resulting from the interaction module. We build a general CU-based framework to make a prediction model to learn the future trajectory and the corresponding uncertainty. The CU-based framework is integrated as a plugin module to current state-of-the-art (SOTA) systems and deployed in two special cases based on multivariate Gaussian and Laplace distributions. In each case, we conduct extensive experiments on two synthetic datasets and two public, large-scale benchmarks of trajectory forecasting. The results are promising: 1) The results of synthetic datasets show that CU-based framework allows the model to appropriately approximate the ground-truth distribution. 2) The results of trajectory forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that the CU-based framework steadily helps SOTA systems improve their performances. Especially, the proposed CU-based framework helps VectorNet improve by 57cm regarding Final Displacement Error on nuScenes dataset. 3) The visualization results of CU illustrate that the value of CU is highly related to the amount of the interactive information among agents.

Spatio-temporal forecasting has numerous applications in analyzing wireless, traffic, and financial networks. Many classical statistical models often fall short in handling the complexity and high non-linearity present in time-series data. Recent advances in deep learning allow for better modelling of spatial and temporal dependencies. While most of these models focus on obtaining accurate point forecasts, they do not characterize the prediction uncertainty. In this work, we consider the time-series data as a random realization from a nonlinear state-space model and target Bayesian inference of the hidden states for probabilistic forecasting. We use particle flow as the tool for approximating the posterior distribution of the states, as it is shown to be highly effective in complex, high-dimensional settings. Thorough experimentation on several real world time-series datasets demonstrates that our approach provides better characterization of uncertainty while maintaining comparable accuracy to the state-of-the art point forecasting methods.

Stock trend forecasting, aiming at predicting the stock future trends, is crucial for investors to seek maximized profits from the stock market. Many event-driven methods utilized the events extracted from news, social media, and discussion board to forecast the stock trend in recent years. However, existing event-driven methods have two main shortcomings: 1) overlooking the influence of event information differentiated by the stock-dependent properties; 2) neglecting the effect of event information from other related stocks. In this paper, we propose a relational event-driven stock trend forecasting (REST) framework, which can address the shortcoming of existing methods. To remedy the first shortcoming, we propose to model the stock context and learn the effect of event information on the stocks under different contexts. To address the second shortcoming, we construct a stock graph and design a new propagation layer to propagate the effect of event information from related stocks. The experimental studies on the real-world data demonstrate the efficiency of our REST framework. The results of investment simulation show that our framework can achieve a higher return of investment than baselines.

Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.