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We consider the problem of inferring the conditional independence graph (CIG) of a sparse, high-dimensional stationary multivariate Gaussian time series. A sparse-group lasso-based frequency-domain formulation of the problem based on frequency-domain sufficient statistic for the observed time series is presented. We investigate an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) approach for optimization of the sparse-group lasso penalized log-likelihood. We provide sufficient conditions for convergence in the Frobenius norm of the inverse PSD estimators to the true value, jointly across all frequencies, where the number of frequencies are allowed to increase with sample size. This results also yields a rate of convergence. We also empirically investigate selection of the tuning parameters based on Bayesian information criterion, and illustrate our approach using numerical examples utilizing both synthetic and real data.

We consider network autoregressive models for count data with a non-random time-varying neighborhood structure. The main methodological contribution is the development of conditions that guarantee stability and valid statistical inference. We consider both cases of fixed and increasing network dimension and we show that quasi-likelihood inference provides consistent and asymptotically normally distributed estimators. The work is complemented by simulation results and a data example.

The CP decomposition for high dimensional non-orthogonal spiked tensors is an important problem with broad applications across many disciplines. However, previous works with theoretical guarantee typically assume restrictive incoherence conditions on the basis vectors for the CP components. In this paper, we propose new computationally efficient composite PCA and concurrent orthogonalization algorithms for tensor CP decomposition with theoretical guarantees under mild incoherence conditions. The composite PCA applies the principal component or singular value decompositions twice, first to a matrix unfolding of the tensor data to obtain singular vectors and then to the matrix folding of the singular vectors obtained in the first step. It can be used as an initialization for any iterative optimization schemes for the tensor CP decomposition. The concurrent orthogonalization algorithm iteratively estimates the basis vector in each mode of the tensor by simultaneously applying projections to the orthogonal complements of the spaces generated by others CP components in other modes. It is designed to improve the alternating least squares estimator and other forms of the high order orthogonal iteration for tensors with low or moderately high CP ranks, and it is guaranteed to converge rapidly when the error of any given initial estimator is bounded by a small constant. Our theoretical investigation provides estimation accuracy and convergence rates for the two proposed algorithms. Our implementations on synthetic data demonstrate significant practical superiority of our approach over existing methods.

Spatial dependent data frequently occur in many fields such as spatial econometrics and epidemiology. To deal with the dependence of variables and estimate quantile-specific effects by covariates, spatial quantile autoregressive models (SQAR models) are introduced. Conventional quantile regression only focuses on the fitting models but ignores the examination of multiple conditional quantile functions, which provides a comprehensive view of the relationship between the response and covariates. Thus, it is necessary to study the different regression slopes at different quantiles, especially in situations where the quantile coefficients share some common feature. However, traditional Wald multiple tests not only increase the burden of computation but also bring greater FDR. In this paper, we transform the estimation and examination problem into a penalization problem, which estimates the parameters at different quantiles and identifies the interquantile commonality at the same time. To avoid the endogeneity caused by the spatial lag variables in SQAR models, we also introduce instrumental variables before estimation and propose two-stage estimation methods based on fused adaptive LASSO and fused adaptive sup-norm penalty approaches. The oracle properties of the proposed estimation methods are established. Through numerical investigations, it is demonstrated that the proposed methods lead to higher estimation efficiency than the traditional quantile regression.

The autoregressive (AR) models are used to represent the time-varying random process in which output depends linearly on previous terms and a stochastic term (the innovation). In the classical version, the AR models are based on normal distribution. However, this distribution does not allow describing data with outliers and asymmetric behavior. In this paper, we study the AR models with normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) innovations. The NIG distribution belongs to the class of semi heavy-tailed distributions with wide range of shapes and thus allows for describing real-life data with possible jumps. The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of the considered model. The efficacy of the estimation procedure is shown on the simulated data. A comparative study is presented, where the classical estimation algorithms are also incorporated, namely, Yule-Walker and conditional least squares methods along with EM method for model parameters estimation. The applications of the introduced model are demonstrated on the real-life financial data.

We study sparse linear regression over a network of agents, modeled as an undirected graph (with no centralized node). The estimation problem is formulated as the minimization of the sum of the local LASSO loss functions plus a quadratic penalty of the consensus constraint -- the latter being instrumental to obtain distributed solution methods. While penalty-based consensus methods have been extensively studied in the optimization literature, their statistical and computational guarantees in the high dimensional setting remain unclear. This work provides an answer to this open problem. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we establish statistical consistency of the estimator: under a suitable choice of the penalty parameter, the optimal solution of the penalized problem achieves near optimal minimax rate $\mathcal{O}(s \log d/N)$ in $\ell_2$-loss, where $s$ is the sparsity value, $d$ is the ambient dimension, and $N$ is the total sample size in the network -- this matches centralized sample rates. Second, we show that the proximal-gradient algorithm applied to the penalized problem, which naturally leads to distributed implementations, converges linearly up to a tolerance of the order of the centralized statistical error -- the rate scales as $\mathcal{O}(d)$, revealing an unavoidable speed-accuracy dilemma.Numerical results demonstrate the tightness of the derived sample rate and convergence rate scalings.

This paper proposes a confidence interval construction for heterogeneous treatment effects in the context of multi-stage experiments with $N$ samples and high-dimensional, $d$, confounders. Our focus is on the case of $d\gg N$, but the results obtained also apply to low-dimensional cases. We showcase that the bias of regularized estimation, unavoidable in high-dimensional covariate spaces, is mitigated with a simple double-robust score. In this way, no additional bias removal is necessary, and we obtain root-$N$ inference results while allowing multi-stage interdependency of the treatments and covariates. Memoryless property is also not assumed; treatment can possibly depend on all previous treatment assignments and all previous multi-stage confounders. Our results rely on certain sparsity assumptions of the underlying dependencies. We discover new product rate conditions necessary for robust inference with dynamic treatments.

Lasso and Dantzig selector are standard procedures able to perform variable selection and estimation simultaneously. This paper is concerned with extending these procedures to spatial point process intensity estimation. We propose adaptive versions of these procedures, develop efficient computational methodologies and derive asymptotic results for a large class of spatial point processes under an original setting where the number of parameters, i.e. the number of spatial covariates considered, increases with the expected number of data points. Both procedures are compared theoretically, in a simulation study, and in a real data example.

In this paper we analyze, for a model of linear regression with gaussian covariates, the performance of a Bayesian estimator given by the mean of a log-concave posterior distribution with gaussian prior, in the high-dimensional limit where the number of samples and the covariates' dimension are large and proportional. Although the high-dimensional analysis of Bayesian estimators has been previously studied for Bayesian-optimal linear regression where the correct posterior is used for inference, much less is known when there is a mismatch. Here we consider a model in which the responses are corrupted by gaussian noise and are known to be generated as linear combinations of the covariates, but the distributions of the ground-truth regression coefficients and of the noise are unknown. This regression task can be rephrased as a statistical mechanics model known as the Gardner spin glass, an analogy which we exploit. Using a leave-one-out approach we characterize the mean-square error for the regression coefficients. We also derive the log-normalizing constant of the posterior. Similar models have been studied by Shcherbina and Tirozzi and by Talagrand, but our arguments are much more straightforward. An interesting consequence of our analysis is that in the quadratic loss case, the performance of the Bayesian estimator is independent of a global "temperature" hyperparameter and matches the ridge estimator: sampling and optimizing are equally good.

Heatmap-based methods dominate in the field of human pose estimation by modelling the output distribution through likelihood heatmaps. In contrast, regression-based methods are more efficient but suffer from inferior performance. In this work, we explore maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to develop an efficient and effective regression-based methods. From the perspective of MLE, adopting different regression losses is making different assumptions about the output density function. A density function closer to the true distribution leads to a better regression performance. In light of this, we propose a novel regression paradigm with Residual Log-likelihood Estimation (RLE) to capture the underlying output distribution. Concretely, RLE learns the change of the distribution instead of the unreferenced underlying distribution to facilitate the training process. With the proposed reparameterization design, our method is compatible with off-the-shelf flow models. The proposed method is effective, efficient and flexible. We show its potential in various human pose estimation tasks with comprehensive experiments. Compared to the conventional regression paradigm, regression with RLE bring 12.4 mAP improvement on MSCOCO without any test-time overhead. Moreover, for the first time, especially on multi-person pose estimation, our regression method is superior to the heatmap-based methods. Our code is available at //github.com/Jeff-sjtu/res-loglikelihood-regression