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We present a semi-amortized variational inference framework designed for computationally feasible uncertainty quantification in 2D full-waveform inversion to explore the multimodal posterior distribution without dimensionality reduction. The framework is called WISER, short for full-Waveform variational Inference via Subsurface Extensions with Refinements. WISER leverages the power of generative artificial intelligence to perform approximate amortized inference that is low-cost albeit showing an amortization gap. This gap is closed through non-amortized refinements that make frugal use of acoustic wave physics. Case studies illustrate that WISER is capable of full-resolution, computationally feasible, and reliable uncertainty estimates of velocity models and imaged reflectivities.

Artificial intelligence systems, particularly large language models (LLMs), are increasingly being employed in high-stakes decisions that impact both individuals and society at large, often without adequate safeguards to ensure safety, quality, and equity. Yet LLMs hallucinate, lack common sense, and are biased - shortcomings that may reflect LLMs' inherent limitations and thus may not be remedied by more sophisticated architectures, more data, or more human feedback. Relying solely on LLMs for complex, high-stakes decisions is therefore problematic. Here we present a hybrid collective intelligence system that mitigates these risks by leveraging the complementary strengths of human experience and the vast information processed by LLMs. We apply our method to open-ended medical diagnostics, combining 40,762 differential diagnoses made by physicians with the diagnoses of five state-of-the art LLMs across 2,133 medical cases. We show that hybrid collectives of physicians and LLMs outperform both single physicians and physician collectives, as well as single LLMs and LLM ensembles. This result holds across a range of medical specialties and professional experience, and can be attributed to humans' and LLMs' complementary contributions that lead to different kinds of errors. Our approach highlights the potential for collective human and machine intelligence to improve accuracy in complex, open-ended domains like medical diagnostics.

Forecasting, to estimate future events, is crucial for business and decision-making. This paper proposes QxEAI, a methodology that produces a probabilistic forecast that utilizes a quantum-like evolutionary algorithm based on training a quantum-like logic decision tree and a classical value tree on a small number of related time series. We demonstrate how the application of our quantum-like evolutionary algorithm to forecasting can overcome the challenges faced by classical and other machine learning approaches. By using three real-world datasets (Dow Jones Index, retail sales, gas consumption), we show how our methodology produces accurate forecasts while requiring little to none manual work.

Large language models can now generate political messages as persuasive as those written by humans, raising concerns about how far this persuasiveness may continue to increase with model size. Here, we generate 720 persuasive messages on 10 U.S. political issues from 24 language models spanning several orders of magnitude in size. We then deploy these messages in a large-scale randomized survey experiment (N = 25,982) to estimate the persuasive capability of each model. Our findings are twofold. First, we find evidence of a log scaling law: model persuasiveness is characterized by sharply diminishing returns, such that current frontier models are barely more persuasive than models smaller in size by an order of magnitude or more. Second, mere task completion (coherence, staying on topic) appears to account for larger models' persuasive advantage. These findings suggest that further scaling model size will not much increase the persuasiveness of static LLM-generated messages.

The architecture of the brain is too complex to be intuitively surveyable without the use of compressed representations that project its variation into a compact, navigable space. The task is especially challenging with high-dimensional data, such as gene expression, where the joint complexity of anatomical and transcriptional patterns demands maximum compression. Established practice is to use standard principal component analysis (PCA), whose computational felicity is offset by limited expressivity, especially at great compression ratios. Employing whole-brain, voxel-wise Allen Brain Atlas transcription data, here we systematically compare compressed representations based on the most widely supported linear and non-linear methods-PCA, kernel PCA, non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), t-stochastic neighbour embedding (t-SNE), uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP), and deep auto-encoding-quantifying reconstruction fidelity, anatomical coherence, and predictive utility with respect to signalling, microstructural, and metabolic targets. We show that deep auto-encoders yield superior representations across all metrics of performance and target domains, supporting their use as the reference standard for representing transcription patterns in the human brain.

When neural networks are trained from data to simulate the dynamics of physical systems, they encounter a persistent challenge: the long-time dynamics they produce are often unphysical or unstable. We analyze the origin of such instabilities when learning linear dynamical systems, focusing on the training dynamics. We make several analytical findings which empirical observations suggest extend to nonlinear dynamical systems. First, the rate of convergence of the training dynamics is uneven and depends on the distribution of energy in the data. As a special case, the dynamics in directions where the data have no energy cannot be learned. Second, in the unlearnable directions, the dynamics produced by the neural network depend on the weight initialization, and common weight initialization schemes can produce unstable dynamics. Third, injecting synthetic noise into the data during training adds damping to the training dynamics and can stabilize the learned simulator, though doing so undesirably biases the learned dynamics. For each contributor to instability, we suggest mitigative strategies. We also highlight important differences between learning discrete-time and continuous-time dynamics, and discuss extensions to nonlinear systems.

Gesture is an important mean of non-verbal communication, with visual modality allows human to convey information during interaction, facilitating peoples and human-machine interactions. However, it is considered difficult to automatically recognise gestures. In this work, we explore three different means to recognise hand signs using deep learning: supervised learning based methods, self-supervised methods and visualisation based techniques applied to 3D moving skeleton data. Self-supervised learning used to train fully connected, CNN and LSTM method. Then, reconstruction method is applied to unlabelled data in simulated settings using CNN as a backbone where we use the learnt features to perform the prediction in the remaining labelled data. Lastly, Grad-CAM is applied to discover the focus of the models. Our experiments results show that supervised learning method is capable to recognise gesture accurately, with self-supervised learning increasing the accuracy in simulated settings. Finally, Grad-CAM visualisation shows that indeed the models focus on relevant skeleton joints on the associated gesture.

Large language models (LLMs) are capable of producing high quality information at unprecedented rates. As these models continue to entrench themselves in society, the content they produce will become increasingly pervasive in databases that are, in turn, incorporated into the pre-training data, fine-tuning data, retrieval data, etc. of other language models. In this paper we formalize the idea of a communication network of LLMs and introduce a method for representing the perspective of individual models within a collection of LLMs. Given these tools we systematically study information diffusion in the communication network of LLMs in various simulated settings.

The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.

Graph representation learning for hypergraphs can be used to extract patterns among higher-order interactions that are critically important in many real world problems. Current approaches designed for hypergraphs, however, are unable to handle different types of hypergraphs and are typically not generic for various learning tasks. Indeed, models that can predict variable-sized heterogeneous hyperedges have not been available. Here we develop a new self-attention based graph neural network called Hyper-SAGNN applicable to homogeneous and heterogeneous hypergraphs with variable hyperedge sizes. We perform extensive evaluations on multiple datasets, including four benchmark network datasets and two single-cell Hi-C datasets in genomics. We demonstrate that Hyper-SAGNN significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on traditional tasks while also achieving great performance on a new task called outsider identification. Hyper-SAGNN will be useful for graph representation learning to uncover complex higher-order interactions in different applications.