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The paper addresses some fundamental and hotly debated issues for high-stakes event predictions underpinning the computational approach to social sciences. We question several prevalent views against machine learning and outline a new paradigm that highlights the promises and promotes the infusion of computational methods and conventional social science approaches.

We consider a cooperative multiplayer bandit learning problem where the players are only allowed to agree on a strategy beforehand, but cannot communicate during the learning process. In this problem, each player simultaneously selects an action. Based on the actions selected by all players, the team of players receives a reward. The actions of all the players are commonly observed. However, each player receives a noisy version of the reward which cannot be shared with other players. Since players receive potentially different rewards, there is an asymmetry in the information used to select their actions. In this paper, we provide an algorithm based on upper and lower confidence bounds that the players can use to select their optimal actions despite the asymmetry in the reward information. We show that this algorithm can achieve logarithmic $O(\frac{\log T}{\Delta_{\bm{a}}})$ (gap-dependent) regret as well as $O(\sqrt{T\log T})$ (gap-independent) regret. This is asymptotically optimal in $T$. We also show that it performs empirically better than the current state of the art algorithm for this environment.

In this work, we present a novel Sports Ball Detection and Tracking (SBDT) method that can be applied to various sports categories. Our approach is composed of (1) high-resolution feature extraction, (2) position-aware model training, and (3) inference considering temporal consistency, all of which are put together as a new SBDT baseline. Besides, to validate the wide-applicability of our approach, we compare our baseline with 6 state-of-the-art SBDT methods on 5 datasets from different sports categories. We achieve this by newly introducing two SBDT datasets, providing new ball annotations for two datasets, and re-implementing all the methods to ease extensive comparison. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach is substantially superior to existing methods on all the sports categories covered by the datasets. We believe our proposed method can play as a Widely Applicable Strong Baseline (WASB) of SBDT, and our datasets and codebase will promote future SBDT research. Datasets and codes will be made publicly available.

When robots are able to see and respond to their surroundings, a whole new world of possibilities opens up. To bring these possibilities to life, the robotics industry is increasingly adopting camera-based vision systems, especially when a robotic system needs to interact with a dynamic environment or moving target. However, this kind of vision system is known to have low data transmission rates, packet loss during communication and noisy measurements as major disadvantages. These problems can perturb the control performance and the quality of the robot-environment interaction. To improve the quality of visual information, in this paper, we propose to model the dynamics of the motion of a target object and use this model to implement an Extended Kalman Filter based on Intermittent Observations of the vision system. The effectiveness of the proposed approach was tested through experiments with a robotic arm, a camera device in an eye-to-hand configuration, and an oscillating suspended block as a target to follow.

Systems of competing agents can often be modeled as games. Assuming rationality, the most likely outcomes are given by an equilibrium (e.g. a Nash equilibrium). In many practical settings, games are influenced by context, i.e. additional data beyond the control of any agent (e.g. weather for traffic and fiscal policy for market economies). Often the exact game mechanics are unknown, yet vast amounts of historical data consisting of (context, equilibrium) pairs are available, raising the possibility of learning a solver which predicts the equilibria given only the context. We introduce Nash Fixed Point Networks (N-FPNs), a class of neural networks that naturally output equilibria. Crucially, N- FPNs employ a constraint decoupling scheme to handle complicated agent action sets while avoiding expensive projections. Empirically, we find N-FPNs are compatible with the recently developed Jacobian-Free Backpropagation technique for training implicit networks, making them significantly faster and easier to train than prior models. Our experiments show N-FPNs are capable of scaling to problems orders of magnitude larger than existing learned game solvers.

We revisit the problem of learning in two-player zero-sum Markov games, focusing on developing an algorithm that is uncoupled, convergent, and rational, with non-asymptotic convergence rates. We start from the case of stateless matrix game with bandit feedback as a warm-up, showing an $O(t^{-\frac{1}{8}})$ last-iterate convergence rate. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first result that obtains finite last-iterate convergence rate given access to only bandit feedback. We extend our result to the case of irreducible Markov games, providing a last-iterate convergence rate of $O(t^{-\frac{1}{9+\varepsilon}})$ for any $\varepsilon>0$. Finally, we study Markov games without any assumptions on the dynamics, and show a path convergence rate, which is a new notion of convergence we defined, of $O(t^{-\frac{1}{10}})$. Our algorithm removes the coordination and prior knowledge requirement of [Wei et al., 2021], which pursued the same goals as us for irreducible Markov games. Our algorithm is related to [Chen et al., 2021, Cen et al., 2021] and also builds on the entropy regularization technique. However, we remove their requirement of communications on the entropy values, making our algorithm entirely uncoupled.

Effective multi-robot teams require the ability to move to goals in complex environments in order to address real-world applications such as search and rescue. Multi-robot teams should be able to operate in a completely decentralized manner, with individual robot team members being capable of acting without explicit communication between neighbors. In this paper, we propose a novel game theoretic model that enables decentralized and communication-free navigation to a goal position. Robots each play their own distributed game by estimating the behavior of their local teammates in order to identify behaviors that move them in the direction of the goal, while also avoiding obstacles and maintaining team cohesion without collisions. We prove theoretically that generated actions approach a Nash equilibrium, which also corresponds to an optimal strategy identified for each robot. We show through extensive simulations that our approach enables decentralized and communication-free navigation by a multi-robot system to a goal position, and is able to avoid obstacles and collisions, maintain connectivity, and respond robustly to sensor noise.

Deployment of Internet of Things (IoT) devices and Data Fusion techniques have gained popularity in public and government domains. This usually requires capturing and consolidating data from multiple sources. As datasets do not necessarily originate from identical sensors, fused data typically results in a complex data problem. Because military is investigating how heterogeneous IoT devices can aid processes and tasks, we investigate a multi-sensor approach. Moreover, we propose a signal to image encoding approach to transform information (signal) to integrate (fuse) data from IoT wearable devices to an image which is invertible and easier to visualize supporting decision making. Furthermore, we investigate the challenge of enabling an intelligent identification and detection operation and demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed Deep Learning and Anomaly Detection models that can support future application that utilizes hand gesture data from wearable devices.

Promoting behavioural diversity is critical for solving games with non-transitive dynamics where strategic cycles exist, and there is no consistent winner (e.g., Rock-Paper-Scissors). Yet, there is a lack of rigorous treatment for defining diversity and constructing diversity-aware learning dynamics. In this work, we offer a geometric interpretation of behavioural diversity in games and introduce a novel diversity metric based on \emph{determinantal point processes} (DPP). By incorporating the diversity metric into best-response dynamics, we develop \emph{diverse fictitious play} and \emph{diverse policy-space response oracle} for solving normal-form games and open-ended games. We prove the uniqueness of the diverse best response and the convergence of our algorithms on two-player games. Importantly, we show that maximising the DPP-based diversity metric guarantees to enlarge the \emph{gamescape} -- convex polytopes spanned by agents' mixtures of strategies. To validate our diversity-aware solvers, we test on tens of games that show strong non-transitivity. Results suggest that our methods achieve much lower exploitability than state-of-the-art solvers by finding effective and diverse strategies.

Multi-agent influence diagrams (MAIDs) are a popular form of graphical model that, for certain classes of games, have been shown to offer key complexity and explainability advantages over traditional extensive form game (EFG) representations. In this paper, we extend previous work on MAIDs by introducing the concept of a MAID subgame, as well as subgame perfect and trembling hand perfect equilibrium refinements. We then prove several equivalence results between MAIDs and EFGs. Finally, we describe an open source implementation for reasoning about MAIDs and computing their equilibria.