Wildfires are a highly prevalent multi-causal environmental phenomenon. The impact of this phenomenon includes human losses, environmental damage and high economic costs. To mitigate these effects, several computer simulation systems have been developed in order to predict fire behavior based on a set of input parameters, also called a scenario (wind speed and direction; temperature; etc.). However, the results of a simulation usually have a high degree of error due to the uncertainty in the values of some variables, because they are not known, or because their measurement may be imprecise, erroneous, or impossible to perform in real time. Previous works have proposed the combination of multiple results in order to reduce this uncertainty. State-of-the-art methods are based on parallel optimization strategies that use a fitness function to guide the search among all possible scenarios. Although these methods have shown improvements in the quality of predictions, they have some limitations related to the algorithms used for the selection of scenarios. To overcome these limitations, in this work we propose to apply the Novelty Search paradigm, which replaces the objective function by a measure of the novelty of the solutions found, which allows the search to continuously generate solutions with behaviors that differ from one another. This approach avoids local optima and may be able to find useful solutions that would be difficult or impossible to find by other algorithms. As with existing methods, this proposal may also be adapted to other propagation models (floods, avalanches or landslides).
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The use of neural networks has been very successful in a wide variety of applications. However, it has recently been observed that it is difficult to generalize the performance of neural networks under the condition of distributional shift. Several efforts have been made to identify potential out-of-distribution inputs. Although existing literature has made significant progress with regard to images and textual data, finance has been overlooked. The aim of this paper is to investigate the distribution shift in the credit scoring problem, one of the most important applications of finance. For the potential distribution shift problem, we propose a novel two-stage model. Using the out-of-distribution detection method, data is first separated into confident and unconfident sets. As a second step, we utilize the domain knowledge with a mean-variance optimization in order to provide reliable bounds for unconfident samples. Using empirical results, we demonstrate that our model offers reliable predictions for the vast majority of datasets. It is only a small portion of the dataset that is inherently difficult to judge, and we leave them to the judgment of human beings. Based on the two-stage model, highly confident predictions have been made and potential risks associated with the model have been significantly reduced.
We study the offline reinforcement learning (RL) in the face of unmeasured confounders. Due to the lack of online interaction with the environment, offline RL is facing the following two significant challenges: (i) the agent may be confounded by the unobserved state variables; (ii) the offline data collected a prior does not provide sufficient coverage for the environment. To tackle the above challenges, we study the policy learning in the confounded MDPs with the aid of instrumental variables. Specifically, we first establish value function (VF)-based and marginalized importance sampling (MIS)-based identification results for the expected total reward in the confounded MDPs. Then by leveraging pessimism and our identification results, we propose various policy learning methods with the finite-sample suboptimality guarantee of finding the optimal in-class policy under minimal data coverage and modeling assumptions. Lastly, our extensive theoretical investigations and one numerical study motivated by the kidney transplantation demonstrate the promising performance of the proposed methods.
Recently there is a large amount of work devoted to the study of Markov chain stochastic gradient methods (MC-SGMs) which mainly focus on their convergence analysis for solving minimization problems. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive generalization analysis of MC-SGMs for both minimization and minimax problems through the lens of algorithmic stability in the framework of statistical learning theory. For empirical risk minimization (ERM) problems, we establish the optimal excess population risk bounds for both smooth and non-smooth cases by introducing on-average argument stability. For minimax problems, we develop a quantitative connection between on-average argument stability and generalization error which extends the existing results for uniform stability \cite{lei2021stability}. We further develop the first nearly optimal convergence rates for convex-concave problems both in expectation and with high probability, which, combined with our stability results, show that the optimal generalization bounds can be attained for both smooth and non-smooth cases. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first generalization analysis of SGMs when the gradients are sampled from a Markov process.
Beam management is a challenging task for millimeter wave (mmWave) and sub-terahertz communication systems, especially in scenarios with highly-mobile users. Leveraging external sensing modalities such as vision, LiDAR, radar, position, or a combination of them, to address this beam management challenge has recently attracted increasing interest from both academia and industry. This is mainly motivated by the dependency of the beam direction decision on the user location and the geometry of the surrounding environment -- information that can be acquired from the sensory data. To realize the promised beam management gains, such as the significant reduction in beam alignment overhead, in practice, however, these solutions need to account for important aspects. For example, these multi-modal sensing aided beam selection approaches should be able to generalize their learning to unseen scenarios and should be able to operate in realistic dense deployments. The "Multi-Modal Beam Prediction Challenge 2022: Towards Generalization" competition is offered to provide a platform for investigating these critical questions. In order to facilitate the generalizability study, the competition offers a large-scale multi-modal dataset with co-existing communication and sensing data collected across multiple real-world locations and different times of the day. In this paper, along with the detailed descriptions of the problem statement and the development dataset, we provide a baseline solution that utilizes the user position data to predict the optimal beam indices. The objective of this challenge is to go beyond a simple feasibility study and enable necessary research in this direction, paving the way towards generalizable multi-modal sensing-aided beam management for real-world future communication systems.
Stochastic kriging has been widely employed for simulation metamodeling to predict the response surface of complex simulation models. However, its use is limited to cases where the design space is low-dimensional because, in general, the sample complexity (i.e., the number of design points required for stochastic kriging to produce an accurate prediction) grows exponentially in the dimensionality of the design space. The large sample size results in both a prohibitive sample cost for running the simulation model and a severe computational challenge due to the need to invert large covariance matrices. Based on tensor Markov kernels and sparse grid experimental designs, we develop a novel methodology that dramatically alleviates the curse of dimensionality. We show that the sample complexity of the proposed methodology grows only slightly in the dimensionality, even under model misspecification. We also develop fast algorithms that compute stochastic kriging in its exact form without any approximation schemes. We demonstrate via extensive numerical experiments that our methodology can handle problems with a design space of more than 10,000 dimensions, improving both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency by orders of magnitude relative to typical alternative methods in practice.
Existing recommender systems extract the user preference based on learning the correlation in data, such as behavioral correlation in collaborative filtering, feature-feature, or feature-behavior correlation in click-through rate prediction. However, regretfully, the real world is driven by causality rather than correlation, and correlation does not imply causation. For example, the recommender systems can recommend a battery charger to a user after buying a phone, in which the latter can serve as the cause of the former, and such a causal relation cannot be reversed. Recently, to address it, researchers in recommender systems have begun to utilize causal inference to extract causality, enhancing the recommender system. In this survey, we comprehensively review the literature on causal inference-based recommendation. At first, we present the fundamental concepts of both recommendation and causal inference as the basis of later content. We raise the typical issues that the non-causality recommendation is faced. Afterward, we comprehensively review the existing work of causal inference-based recommendation, based on a taxonomy of what kind of problem causal inference addresses. Last, we discuss the open problems in this important research area, along with interesting future works.
This manuscript portrays optimization as a process. In many practical applications the environment is so complex that it is infeasible to lay out a comprehensive theoretical model and use classical algorithmic theory and mathematical optimization. It is necessary as well as beneficial to take a robust approach, by applying an optimization method that learns as one goes along, learning from experience as more aspects of the problem are observed. This view of optimization as a process has become prominent in varied fields and has led to some spectacular success in modeling and systems that are now part of our daily lives.
In this monograph, I introduce the basic concepts of Online Learning through a modern view of Online Convex Optimization. Here, online learning refers to the framework of regret minimization under worst-case assumptions. I present first-order and second-order algorithms for online learning with convex losses, in Euclidean and non-Euclidean settings. All the algorithms are clearly presented as instantiation of Online Mirror Descent or Follow-The-Regularized-Leader and their variants. Particular attention is given to the issue of tuning the parameters of the algorithms and learning in unbounded domains, through adaptive and parameter-free online learning algorithms. Non-convex losses are dealt through convex surrogate losses and through randomization. The bandit setting is also briefly discussed, touching on the problem of adversarial and stochastic multi-armed bandits. These notes do not require prior knowledge of convex analysis and all the required mathematical tools are rigorously explained. Moreover, all the proofs have been carefully chosen to be as simple and as short as possible.
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have been extensively studied in the past few years. Arguably the revolutionary techniques are in the area of computer vision such as plausible image generation, image to image translation, facial attribute manipulation and similar domains. Despite the significant success achieved in computer vision field, applying GANs over real-world problems still have three main challenges: (1) High quality image generation; (2) Diverse image generation; and (3) Stable training. Considering numerous GAN-related research in the literature, we provide a study on the architecture-variants and loss-variants, which are proposed to handle these three challenges from two perspectives. We propose loss and architecture-variants for classifying most popular GANs, and discuss the potential improvements with focusing on these two aspects. While several reviews for GANs have been presented, there is no work focusing on the review of GAN-variants based on handling challenges mentioned above. In this paper, we review and critically discuss 7 architecture-variant GANs and 9 loss-variant GANs for remedying those three challenges. The objective of this review is to provide an insight on the footprint that current GANs research focuses on the performance improvement. Code related to GAN-variants studied in this work is summarized on //github.com/sheqi/GAN_Review.
Dialogue systems have attracted more and more attention. Recent advances on dialogue systems are overwhelmingly contributed by deep learning techniques, which have been employed to enhance a wide range of big data applications such as computer vision, natural language processing, and recommender systems. For dialogue systems, deep learning can leverage a massive amount of data to learn meaningful feature representations and response generation strategies, while requiring a minimum amount of hand-crafting. In this article, we give an overview to these recent advances on dialogue systems from various perspectives and discuss some possible research directions. In particular, we generally divide existing dialogue systems into task-oriented and non-task-oriented models, then detail how deep learning techniques help them with representative algorithms and finally discuss some appealing research directions that can bring the dialogue system research into a new frontier.
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