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We prove a central limit theorem for the entropic transportation cost between subgaussian probability measures, centered at the population cost. This is the first result which allows for asymptotically valid inference for entropic optimal transport between measures which are not necessarily discrete. In the compactly supported case, we complement these results with new, faster, convergence rates for the expected entropic transportation cost between empirical measures. Our proof is based on strengthening convergence results for dual solutions to the entropic optimal transport problem.

This paper is a continuation of the work presented in [Chertock et al., Math. Cli. Weather Forecast. 5, 1 (2019), 65--106]. We study uncertainty propagation in warm cloud dynamics of weakly compressible fluids. The mathematical model is governed by a multiscale system of PDEs in which the macroscopic fluid dynamics is described by a weakly compressible Navier-Stokes system and the microscopic cloud dynamics is modeled by a convection-diffusion-reaction system. In order to quantify uncertainties present in the system, we derive and implement a generalized polynomial chaos stochastic Galerkin method. Unlike the first part of this work, where we restricted our consideration to the partially stochastic case in which the uncertainties were only present in the cloud physics equations, we now study a fully random Navier-Stokes-cloud model in which we include randomness in the macroscopic fluid dynamics as well. We conduct a series of numerical experiments illustrating the accuracy and efficiency of the developed approach.

The problem of continuous inverse optimal control (over finite time horizon) is to learn the unknown cost function over the sequence of continuous control variables from expert demonstrations. In this article, we study this fundamental problem in the framework of energy-based model, where the observed expert trajectories are assumed to be random samples from a probability density function defined as the exponential of the negative cost function up to a normalizing constant. The parameters of the cost function are learned by maximum likelihood via an "analysis by synthesis" scheme, which iterates (1) synthesis step: sample the synthesized trajectories from the current probability density using the Langevin dynamics via back-propagation through time, and (2) analysis step: update the model parameters based on the statistical difference between the synthesized trajectories and the observed trajectories. Given the fact that an efficient optimization algorithm is usually available for an optimal control problem, we also consider a convenient approximation of the above learning method, where we replace the sampling in the synthesis step by optimization. Moreover, to make the sampling or optimization more efficient, we propose to train the energy-based model simultaneously with a top-down trajectory generator via cooperative learning, where the trajectory generator is used to fast initialize the synthesis step of the energy-based model. We demonstrate the proposed methods on autonomous driving tasks, and show that they can learn suitable cost functions for optimal control.

In this study, we examine a clustering problem in which the covariates of each individual element in a dataset are associated with an uncertainty specific to that element. More specifically, we consider a clustering approach in which a pre-processing applying a non-linear transformation to the covariates is used to capture the hidden data structure. To this end, we approximate the sets representing the propagated uncertainty for the pre-processed features empirically. To exploit the empirical uncertainty sets, we propose a greedy and optimistic clustering (GOC) algorithm that finds better feature candidates over such sets, yielding more condensed clusters. As an important application, we apply the GOC algorithm to synthetic datasets of the orbital properties of stars generated through our numerical simulation mimicking the formation process of the Milky Way. The GOC algorithm demonstrates an improved performance in finding sibling stars originating from the same dwarf galaxy. These realistic datasets have also been made publicly available.

Existing inferential methods for small area data involve a trade-off between maintaining area-level frequentist coverage rates and improving inferential precision via the incorporation of indirect information. In this article, we propose a method to obtain an area-level prediction region for a future observation which mitigates this trade-off. The proposed method takes a conformal prediction approach in which the conformity measure is the posterior predictive density of a working model that incorporates indirect information. The resulting prediction region has guaranteed frequentist coverage regardless of the working model, and, if the working model assumptions are accurate, the region has minimum expected volume compared to other regions with the same coverage rate. When constructed under a normal working model, we prove such a prediction region is an interval and construct an efficient algorithm to obtain the exact interval. We illustrate the performance of our method through simulation studies and an application to EPA radon survey data.

We introduce Universal Solution Manifold Network (USM-Net), a novel surrogate model, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), which applies to differential problems whose solution depends on physical and geometrical parameters. Our method employs a mesh-less architecture, thus overcoming the limitations associated with image segmentation and mesh generation required by traditional discretization methods. Indeed, we encode geometrical variability through scalar landmarks, such as coordinates of points of interest. In biomedical applications, these landmarks can be inexpensively processed from clinical images. Our approach is non-intrusive and modular, as we select a data-driven loss function. The latter can also be modified by considering additional constraints, thus leveraging available physical knowledge. Our approach can also accommodate a universal coordinate system, which supports the USM-Net in learning the correspondence between points belonging to different geometries, boosting prediction accuracy on unobserved geometries. Finally, we present two numerical test cases in computational fluid dynamics involving variable Reynolds numbers as well as computational domains of variable shape. The results show that our method allows for inexpensive but accurate approximations of velocity and pressure, avoiding computationally expensive image segmentation, mesh generation, or re-training for every new instance of physical parameters and shape of the domain.

Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal likelihood (model evidence), which is computationally challenging, prohibiting its use in many high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. With Bayesian imaging applications in mind, in this work we present the proximal nested sampling methodology to objectively compare alternative Bayesian imaging models for applications that use images to inform decisions under uncertainty. The methodology is based on nested sampling, a Monte Carlo approach specialised for model comparison, and exploits proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to scale efficiently to large problems and to tackle models that are log-concave and not necessarily smooth (e.g., involving l_1 or total-variation priors). The proposed approach can be applied computationally to problems of dimension O(10^6) and beyond, making it suitable for high-dimensional inverse imaging problems. It is validated on large Gaussian models, for which the likelihood is available analytically, and subsequently illustrated on a range of imaging problems where it is used to analyse different choices of dictionary and measurement model.

This paper proposes an active learning algorithm for solving regression and classification problems based on inverse-distance weighting functions for selecting the feature vectors to query. The algorithm has the following features: (i) supports both pool-based and population-based sampling; (ii) is independent of the type of predictor used; (iii) can handle known and unknown constraints on the queryable feature vectors; and (iv) can run either sequentially, or in batch mode, depending on how often the predictor is retrained. The method's potential is shown in numerical tests on illustrative synthetic problems and real-world regression and classification datasets from the UCI repository. A Python implementation of the algorithm that we call IDEAL (Inverse-Distance based Exploration for Active Learning), is available at \url{//cse.lab.imtlucca.it/~bemporad/ideal}.

Ensembles over neural network weights trained from different random initialization, known as deep ensembles, achieve state-of-the-art accuracy and calibration. The recently introduced batch ensembles provide a drop-in replacement that is more parameter efficient. In this paper, we design ensembles not only over weights, but over hyperparameters to improve the state of the art in both settings. For best performance independent of budget, we propose hyper-deep ensembles, a simple procedure that involves a random search over different hyperparameters, themselves stratified across multiple random initializations. Its strong performance highlights the benefit of combining models with both weight and hyperparameter diversity. We further propose a parameter efficient version, hyper-batch ensembles, which builds on the layer structure of batch ensembles and self-tuning networks. The computational and memory costs of our method are notably lower than typical ensembles. On image classification tasks, with MLP, LeNet, and Wide ResNet 28-10 architectures, our methodology improves upon both deep and batch ensembles.