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Early warnings for dynamical transitions in complex systems or high-dimensional observation data are essential in many real world applications, such as gene mutation, brain diseases, natural disasters, financial crises, and engineering reliability. To effectively extract early warning signals, we develop a novel approach: the directed anisotropic diffusion map that captures the latent evolutionary dynamics in low-dimensional manifold. Applying the methodology to authentic electroencephalogram (EEG) data, we successfully find the appropriate effective coordinates, and derive early warning signals capable of detecting the tipping point during the state transition. Our method bridges the latent dynamics with the original dataset. The framework is validated to be accurate and effective through numerical experiments, in terms of density and transition probability. It is shown that the second coordinate holds meaningful information for critical transition in various evaluation metrics.

We prove a discrete analogue for the composition of the fractional integral and Caputo derivative. This result is relevant in numerical analysis of fractional PDEs when one discretizes the Caputo derivative with the so-called L1 scheme. The proof is based on asymptotic evaluation of the discrete sums with the use of the Euler-Maclaurin summation formula.

Several new network information dimension definitions have been proposed in recent decades, expanding the scope of applicability of this seminal tool. This paper proposes a new definition based on Deng entropy and d-summability (a concept from geometric measure theory). We will prove to what extent the new formulation will be useful in the theoretical and applied points of view.

This work considers Bayesian experimental design for the inverse boundary value problem of linear elasticity in a two-dimensional setting. The aim is to optimize the positions of compactly supported pressure activations on the boundary of the examined body in order to maximize the value of the resulting boundary deformations as data for the inverse problem of reconstructing the Lam\'e parameters inside the object. We resort to a linearized measurement model and adopt the framework of Bayesian experimental design, under the assumption that the prior and measurement noise distributions are mutually independent Gaussians. This enables the use of the standard Bayesian A-optimality criterion for deducing optimal positions for the pressure activations. The (second) derivatives of the boundary measurements with respect to the Lam\'e parameters and the positions of the boundary pressure activations are deduced to allow minimizing the corresponding objective function, i.e., the trace of the covariance matrix of the posterior distribution, by a gradient-based optimization algorithm. Two-dimensional numerical experiments are performed to demonstrate the functionality of our approach.

Estimating parameters from data is a fundamental problem in physics, customarily done by minimizing a loss function between a model and observed statistics. In scattering-based analysis, researchers often employ their domain expertise to select a specific range of wavevectors for analysis, a choice that can vary depending on the specific case. We introduce another paradigm that defines a probabilistic generative model from the beginning of data processing and propagates the uncertainty for parameter estimation, termed ab initio uncertainty quantification (AIUQ). As an illustrative example, we demonstrate this approach with differential dynamic microscopy (DDM) that extracts dynamical information through Fourier analysis at a selected range of wavevectors. We first show that DDM is equivalent to fitting a temporal variogram in the reciprocal space using a latent factor model as the generative model. Then we derive the maximum marginal likelihood estimator, which optimally weighs information at all wavevectors, therefore eliminating the need to select the range of wavevectors. Furthermore, we substantially reduce the computational cost by utilizing the generalized Schur algorithm for Toeplitz covariances without approximation. Simulated studies validate that AIUQ significantly improves estimation accuracy and enables model selection with automated analysis. The utility of AIUQ is also demonstrated by three distinct sets of experiments: first in an isotropic Newtonian fluid, pushing limits of optically dense systems compared to multiple particle tracking; next in a system undergoing a sol-gel transition, automating the determination of gelling points and critical exponent; and lastly, in discerning anisotropic diffusive behavior of colloids in a liquid crystal. These outcomes collectively underscore AIUQ's versatility to capture system dynamics in an efficient and automated manner.

Bayesian binary regression is a prosperous area of research due to the computational challenges encountered by currently available methods either for high-dimensional settings or large datasets, or both. In the present work, we focus on the expectation propagation (EP) approximation of the posterior distribution in Bayesian probit regression under a multivariate Gaussian prior distribution. Adapting more general derivations in Anceschi et al. (2023), we show how to leverage results on the extended multivariate skew-normal distribution to derive an efficient implementation of the EP routine having a per-iteration cost that scales linearly in the number of covariates. This makes EP computationally feasible also in challenging high-dimensional settings, as shown in a detailed simulation study.

Recently, a stability theory has been developed to study the linear stability of modified Patankar--Runge--Kutta (MPRK) schemes. This stability theory provides sufficient conditions for a fixed point of an MPRK scheme to be stable as well as for the convergence of an MPRK scheme towards the steady state of the corresponding initial value problem, whereas the main assumption is that the initial value is sufficiently close to the steady state. Initially, numerical experiments in several publications indicated that these linear stability properties are not only local, but even global, as is the case for general linear methods. Recently, however, it was discovered that the linear stability of the MPDeC(8) scheme is indeed only local in nature. Our conjecture is that this is a result of negative Runge--Kutta (RK) parameters of MPDeC(8) and that linear stability is indeed global, if the RK parameters are nonnegative. To support this conjecture, we examine the family of MPRK22($\alpha$) methods with negative RK parameters and show that even among these methods there are methods for which the stability properties are only local. However, this local linear stability is not observed for MPRK22($\alpha$) schemes with nonnegative Runge-Kutta parameters.

Trojans are one of the most threatening network attacks currently. HTTP-based Trojan, in particular, accounts for a considerable proportion of them. Moreover, as the network environment becomes more complex, HTTP-based Trojan is more concealed than others. At present, many intrusion detection systems (IDSs) are increasingly difficult to effectively detect such Trojan traffic due to the inherent shortcomings of the methods used and the backwardness of training data. Classical anomaly detection and traditional machine learning-based (TML-based) anomaly detection are highly dependent on expert knowledge to extract features artificially, which is difficult to implement in HTTP-based Trojan traffic detection. Deep learning-based (DL-based) anomaly detection has been locally applied to IDSs, but it cannot be transplanted to HTTP-based Trojan traffic detection directly. To solve this problem, in this paper, we propose a neural network detection model (HSTF-Model) based on hierarchical spatiotemporal features of traffic. Meanwhile, we combine deep learning algorithms with expert knowledge through feature encoders and statistical characteristics to improve the self-learning ability of the model. Experiments indicate that F1 of HSTF-Model can reach 99.4% in real traffic. In addition, we present a dataset BTHT consisting of HTTP-based benign and Trojan traffic to facilitate related research in the field.

Missing data is frequently encountered in many areas of statistics. Propensity score weighting is a popular method for handling missing data. The propensity score method employs a response propensity model, but correct specification of the statistical model can be challenging in the presence of missing data. Doubly robust estimation is attractive, as the consistency of the estimator is guaranteed when either the outcome regression model or the propensity score model is correctly specified. In this paper, we first employ information projection to develop an efficient and doubly robust estimator under indirect model calibration constraints. The resulting propensity score estimator can be equivalently expressed as a doubly robust regression imputation estimator by imposing the internal bias calibration condition in estimating the regression parameters. In addition, we generalize the information projection to allow for outlier-robust estimation. Some asymptotic properties are presented. The simulation study confirms that the proposed method allows robust inference against not only the violation of various model assumptions, but also outliers. A real-life application is presented using data from the Conservation Effects Assessment Project.

The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.