First, we analyze the variance of the Cross Validation (CV)-based estimators used for estimating the performance of classification rules. Second, we propose a novel estimator to estimate this variance using the Influence Function (IF) approach that had been used previously very successfully to estimate the variance of the bootstrap-based estimators. The motivation for this research is that, as the best of our knowledge, the literature lacks a rigorous method for estimating the variance of the CV-based estimators. What is available is a set of ad-hoc procedures that have no mathematical foundation since they ignore the covariance structure among dependent random variables. The conducted experiments show that the IF proposed method has small RMS error with some bias. However, surprisingly, the ad-hoc methods still work better than the IF-based method. Unfortunately, this is due to the lack of enough smoothness if compared to the bootstrap estimator. This opens the research for three points: (1) more comprehensive simulation study to clarify when the IF method win or loose; (2) more mathematical analysis to figure out why the ad-hoc methods work well; and (3) more mathematical treatment to figure out the connection between the appropriate amount of "smoothness" and decreasing the bias of the IF method.
相關內容
We consider a class of statistical estimation problems in which we are given a random data matrix ${\boldsymbol X}\in {\mathbb R}^{n\times d}$ (and possibly some labels ${\boldsymbol y}\in{\mathbb R}^n$) and would like to estimate a coefficient vector ${\boldsymbol \theta}\in{\mathbb R}^d$ (or possibly a constant number of such vectors). Special cases include low-rank matrix estimation and regularized estimation in generalized linear models (e.g., sparse regression). First order methods proceed by iteratively multiplying current estimates by ${\boldsymbol X}$ or its transpose. Examples include gradient descent or its accelerated variants. Celentano, Montanari, Wu proved that for any constant number of iterations (matrix vector multiplications), the optimal first order algorithm is a specific approximate message passing algorithm (known as `Bayes AMP'). The error of this estimator can be characterized in the high-dimensional asymptotics $n,d\to\infty$, $n/d\to\delta$, and provides a lower bound to the estimation error of any first order algorithm. Here we present a simpler proof of the same result, and generalize it to broader classes of data distributions and of first order algorithms, including algorithms with non-separable nonlinearities. Most importantly, the new proof technique does not require to construct an equivalent tree-structured estimation problem, and is therefore susceptible of a broader range of applications.
People learn whenever and wherever possible, and whatever they like or encounter--Mathematics, Drama, Art, Languages, Physics, Philosophy, and so on. With the bursting of knowledge, evaluation of one's understanding of conceptual knowledge becomes increasingly difficult. There are a lot of demands for evaluating one's understanding of a piece of knowledge, e.g., facilitating personalized recommendations; discovering one's expertises and deficiencies in a field; recommending topics for a conversation between people with different educational or cultural backgrounds in their first encounter; recommending a learning material to practice a meaningful learning etc. Assessment of understanding of knowledge is conventionally practiced through tests or interviews, but they have some limitations such as low-efficiency and in-comprehensive. We propose a method to estimate one's understanding of conceptual knowledge, by keeping track of his/her learning activities. It overcomes some limitations of traditional methods, hence complements traditional methods.
Moment methods are an important means of density estimation, but they are generally strongly dependent on the choice of feasible functions, which severely affects the performance. We propose a non-classical parameterization for density estimation using the sample moments, which does not require the choice of such functions. The parameterization is induced by the Kullback-Leibler distance, and the solution of it, which is proved to exist and be unique subject to simple prior that does not depend on data, can be obtained by convex optimization. Simulation results show the performance of the proposed estimator in estimating multi-modal densities which are mixtures of different types of functions.
ML models are typically trained using large datasets of high quality. However, training datasets often contain inconsistent or incomplete data. To tackle this issue, one solution is to develop algorithms that can check whether a prediction of a model is certifiably robust. Given a learning algorithm that produces a classifier and given an example at test time, a classification outcome is certifiably robust if it is predicted by every model trained across all possible worlds (repairs) of the uncertain (inconsistent) dataset. This notion of robustness falls naturally under the framework of certain answers. In this paper, we study the complexity of certifying robustness for a simple but widely deployed classification algorithm, $k$-Nearest Neighbors ($k$-NN). Our main focus is on inconsistent datasets when the integrity constraints are functional dependencies (FDs). For this setting, we establish a dichotomy in the complexity of certifying robustness w.r.t. the set of FDs: the problem either admits a polynomial time algorithm, or it is coNP-hard. Additionally, we exhibit a similar dichotomy for the counting version of the problem, where the goal is to count the number of possible worlds that predict a certain label. As a byproduct of our study, we also establish the complexity of a problem related to finding an optimal subset repair that may be of independent interest.
Measuring the predictability and complexity of time series using entropy is essential tool de-signing and controlling a nonlinear system. However, the existing methods have some drawbacks related to the strong dependence of entropy on the parameters of the methods. To overcome these difficulties, this study proposes a new method for estimating the entropy of a time series using the LogNNet neural network model. The LogNNet reservoir matrix is filled with time series elements according to our algorithm. The accuracy of the classification of images from the MNIST-10 database is considered as the entropy measure and denoted by NNetEn. The novelty of entropy calculation is that the time series is involved in mixing the input information in the res-ervoir. Greater complexity in the time series leads to a higher classification accuracy and higher NNetEn values. We introduce a new time series characteristic called time series learning inertia that determines the learning rate of the neural network. The robustness and efficiency of the method is verified on chaotic, periodic, random, binary, and constant time series. The comparison of NNetEn with other methods of entropy estimation demonstrates that our method is more robust and accurate and can be widely used in practice.
The classical statistical learning theory says that fitting too many parameters leads to overfitting and poor performance. That modern deep neural networks generalize well despite a large number of parameters contradicts this finding and constitutes a major unsolved problem towards explaining the success of deep learning. The implicit regularization induced by stochastic gradient descent (SGD) has been regarded to be important, but its specific principle is still unknown. In this work, we study how the local geometry of the energy landscape around local minima affects the statistical properties of SGD with Gaussian gradient noise. We argue that under reasonable assumptions, the local geometry forces SGD to stay close to a low dimensional subspace and that this induces implicit regularization and results in tighter bounds on the generalization error for deep neural networks. To derive generalization error bounds for neural networks, we first introduce a notion of stagnation sets around the local minima and impose a local essential convexity property of the population risk. Under these conditions, lower bounds for SGD to remain in these stagnation sets are derived. If stagnation occurs, we derive a bound on the generalization error of deep neural networks involving the spectral norms of the weight matrices but not the number of network parameters. Technically, our proofs are based on controlling the change of parameter values in the SGD iterates and local uniform convergence of the empirical loss functions based on the entropy of suitable neighborhoods around local minima. Our work attempts to better connect non-convex optimization and generalization analysis with uniform convergence.
The absolute-moment method is widespread for estimating the Hurst exponent of a fractional Brownian motion $X$. But this method is biased when applied to a stationary version of $X$, in particular an inverse Lamperti transform of $X$, with a linear time contraction of parameter $\theta$. We present an adaptation of the absolute-moment method to this framework and we compare it to the maximum likelihood method, with simulations and an application to a financial time series. While it appears that the maximum-likelihood method is more accurate than the adapted absolute-moment estimation, this last method is not uninteresting for two reasons: it makes it possible to confirm visually that the model is well specified and it is computationally more performing.
Uncertainty estimation is an essential step in the evaluation of the robustness for deep learning models in computer vision, especially when applied in risk-sensitive areas. However, most state-of-the-art deep learning models either fail to obtain uncertainty estimation or need significant modification (e.g., formulating a proper Bayesian treatment) to obtain it. Most previous methods are not able to take an arbitrary model off the shelf and generate uncertainty estimation without retraining or redesigning it. To address this gap, we perform a systematic exploration into training-free uncertainty estimation for dense regression, an unrecognized yet important problem, and provide a theoretical construction justifying such estimations. We propose three simple and scalable methods to analyze the variance of outputs from a trained network under tolerable perturbations: infer-transformation, infer-noise, and infer-dropout. They operate solely during the inference, without the need to re-train, re-design, or fine-tune the models, as typically required by state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation methods. Surprisingly, even without involving such perturbations in training, our methods produce comparable or even better uncertainty estimation when compared to training-required state-of-the-art methods.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach builds off of techniques for distributionally robust optimization and Owen's empirical likelihood, and we provide a number of finite-sample and asymptotic results characterizing the theoretical performance of the estimator. In particular, we show that our procedure comes with certificates of optimality, achieving (in some scenarios) faster rates of convergence than empirical risk minimization by virtue of automatically balancing bias and variance. We give corroborating empirical evidence showing that in practice, the estimator indeed trades between variance and absolute performance on a training sample, improving out-of-sample (test) performance over standard empirical risk minimization for a number of classification problems.
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