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One of the distinguishing characteristics of modern deep learning systems is that they typically employ neural network architectures that utilize enormous numbers of parameters, often in the millions and sometimes even in the billions. While this paradigm has inspired significant research on the properties of large networks, relatively little work has been devoted to the fact that these networks are often used to model large complex datasets, which may themselves contain millions or even billions of constraints. In this work, we focus on this high-dimensional regime in which both the dataset size and the number of features tend to infinity. We analyze the performance of random feature regression with features $F=f(WX+B)$ for a random weight matrix $W$ and random bias vector $B$, obtaining exact formulae for the asymptotic training and test errors for data generated by a linear teacher model. The role of the bias can be understood as parameterizing a distribution over activation functions, and our analysis directly generalizes to such distributions, even those not expressible with a traditional additive bias. Intriguingly, we find that a mixture of nonlinearities can improve both the training and test errors over the best single nonlinearity, suggesting that mixtures of nonlinearities might be useful for approximate kernel methods or neural network architecture design.

Data assimilation techniques are widely used to predict complex dynamical systems with uncertainties, based on time-series observation data. Error covariance matrices modelling is an important element in data assimilation algorithms which can considerably impact the forecasting accuracy. The estimation of these covariances, which usually relies on empirical assumptions and physical constraints, is often imprecise and computationally expensive especially for systems of large dimension. In this work, we propose a data-driven approach based on long short term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN) to improve both the accuracy and the efficiency of observation covariance specification in data assimilation for dynamical systems. Learning the covariance matrix from observed/simulated time-series data, the proposed approach does not require any knowledge or assumption about prior error distribution, unlike classical posterior tuning methods. We have compared the novel approach with two state-of-the-art covariance tuning algorithms, namely DI01 and D05, first in a Lorenz dynamical system and then in a 2D shallow water twin experiments framework with different covariance parameterization using ensemble assimilation. This novel method shows significant advantages in observation covariance specification, assimilation accuracy and computational efficiency.

It is critical to accurately simulate data when employing Monte Carlo techniques and evaluating statistical methodology. Measurements are often correlated and high dimensional in this era of big data, such as data obtained in high-throughput biomedical experiments. Due to the computational complexity and a lack of user-friendly software available to simulate these massive multivariate constructions, researchers resort to simulation designs that posit independence or perform arbitrary data transformations. To close this gap, we developed the Bigsimr Julia package with R and Python interfaces. This paper focuses on the R interface. These packages empower high-dimensional random vector simulation with arbitrary marginal distributions and dependency via a Pearson, Spearman, or Kendall correlation matrix. bigsimr contains high-performance features, including multi-core and graphical-processing-unit-accelerated algorithms to estimate correlation and compute the nearest correlation matrix. Monte Carlo studies quantify the accuracy and scalability of our approach, up to $d=10,000$. We describe example workflows and apply to a high-dimensional data set -- RNA-sequencing data obtained from breast cancer tumor samples.

Various nonparametric approaches for Bayesian spectral density estimation of stationary time series have been suggested in the literature, mostly based on the Whittle likelihood approximation. A generalization of this approximation has been proposed in Kirch et al. who prove posterior consistency for spectral density estimation in combination with the Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior for Gaussian time series. In this paper, we will extend the posterior consistency result to non-Gaussian time series by employing a general consistency theorem of Shalizi for dependent data and misspecified models. As a special case, posterior consistency for the spectral density under the Whittle likelihood as proposed by Choudhuri, Ghosal and Roy is also extended to non-Gaussian time series. Small sample properties of this approach are illustrated with several examples of non-Gaussian time series.

In this paper, new results in random matrix theory are derived which allow us to construct a shrinkage estimator of the global minimum variance (GMV) portfolio when the shrinkage target is a random object. More specifically, the shrinkage target is determined as the holding portfolio estimated from previous data. The theoretical findings are applied to develop theory for dynamic estimation of the GMV portfolio, where the new estimator of its weights is shrunk to the holding portfolio at each time of reconstruction. Both cases with and without overlapping samples are considered in the paper. The non-overlapping samples corresponds to the case when different data of the asset returns are used to construct the traditional estimator of the GMV portfolio weights and to determine the target portfolio, while the overlapping case allows intersections between the samples. The theoretical results are derived under weak assumptions imposed on the data-generating process. No specific distribution is assumed for the asset returns except from the assumption of finite $4+\varepsilon$, $\varepsilon>0$, moments. Also, the population covariance matrix with unbounded spectrum can be considered. The performance of new trading strategies is investigated via an extensive simulation. Finally, the theoretical findings are implemented in an empirical illustration based on the returns on stocks included in the S\&P 500 index.

Feature attribution is often loosely presented as the process of selecting a subset of relevant features as a rationale of a prediction. This lack of clarity stems from the fact that we usually do not have access to any notion of ground-truth attribution and from a more general debate on what good interpretations are. In this paper we propose to formalise feature selection/attribution based on the concept of relaxed functional dependence. In particular, we extend our notions to the instance-wise setting and derive necessary properties for candidate selection solutions, while leaving room for task-dependence. By computing ground-truth attributions on synthetic datasets, we evaluate many state-of-the-art attribution methods and show that, even when optimised, some fail to verify the proposed properties and provide wrong solutions.

The problem of Approximate Nearest Neighbor (ANN) search is fundamental in computer science and has benefited from significant progress in the past couple of decades. However, most work has been devoted to pointsets whereas complex shapes have not been sufficiently treated. Here, we focus on distance functions between discretized curves in Euclidean space: they appear in a wide range of applications, from road segments to time-series in general dimension. For $\ell_p$-products of Euclidean metrics, for any $p$, we design simple and efficient data structures for ANN, based on randomized projections, which are of independent interest. They serve to solve proximity problems under a notion of distance between discretized curves, which generalizes both discrete Fr\'echet and Dynamic Time Warping distances. These are the most popular and practical approaches to comparing such curves. We offer the first data structures and query algorithms for ANN with arbitrarily good approximation factor, at the expense of increasing space usage and preprocessing time over existing methods. Query time complexity is comparable or significantly improved by our algorithms, our algorithm is especially efficient when the length of the curves is bounded.

Deep structured models are widely used for tasks like semantic segmentation, where explicit correlations between variables provide important prior information which generally helps to reduce the data needs of deep nets. However, current deep structured models are restricted by oftentimes very local neighborhood structure, which cannot be increased for computational complexity reasons, and by the fact that the output configuration, or a representation thereof, cannot be transformed further. Very recent approaches which address those issues include graphical model inference inside deep nets so as to permit subsequent non-linear output space transformations. However, optimization of those formulations is challenging and not well understood. Here, we develop a novel model which generalizes existing approaches, such as structured prediction energy networks, and discuss a formulation which maintains applicability of existing inference techniques.

We consider the task of learning the parameters of a {\em single} component of a mixture model, for the case when we are given {\em side information} about that component, we call this the "search problem" in mixture models. We would like to solve this with computational and sample complexity lower than solving the overall original problem, where one learns parameters of all components. Our main contributions are the development of a simple but general model for the notion of side information, and a corresponding simple matrix-based algorithm for solving the search problem in this general setting. We then specialize this model and algorithm to four common scenarios: Gaussian mixture models, LDA topic models, subspace clustering, and mixed linear regression. For each one of these we show that if (and only if) the side information is informative, we obtain parameter estimates with greater accuracy, and also improved computation complexity than existing moment based mixture model algorithms (e.g. tensor methods). We also illustrate several natural ways one can obtain such side information, for specific problem instances. Our experiments on real data sets (NY Times, Yelp, BSDS500) further demonstrate the practicality of our algorithms showing significant improvement in runtime and accuracy.

In this paper we introduce a covariance framework for the analysis of EEG and MEG data that takes into account observed temporal stationarity on small time scales and trial-to-trial variations. We formulate a model for the covariance matrix, which is a Kronecker product of three components that correspond to space, time and epochs/trials, and consider maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameter values. An iterative algorithm that finds approximations of the maximum likelihood estimates is proposed. We perform a simulation study to assess the performance of the estimator and investigate the influence of different assumptions about the covariance factors on the estimated covariance matrix and on its components. Apart from that, we illustrate our method on real EEG and MEG data sets. The proposed covariance model is applicable in a variety of cases where spontaneous EEG or MEG acts as source of noise and realistic noise covariance estimates are needed for accurate dipole localization, such as in evoked activity studies, or where the properties of spontaneous EEG or MEG are themselves the topic of interest, such as in combined EEG/fMRI experiments in which the correlation between EEG and fMRI signals is investigated.