Multivariate sequential data collected in practice often exhibit temporal irregularities, including nonuniform time intervals and component misalignment. However, if uneven spacing and asynchrony are endogenous characteristics of the data rather than a result of insufficient observation, the information content of these irregularities plays a defining role in characterizing the multivariate dependence structure. Existing approaches for probabilistic forecasting either overlook the resulting statistical heterogeneities, are susceptible to imputation biases, or impose parametric assumptions on the data distribution. This paper proposes an end-to-end solution that overcomes these limitations by allowing the observation arrival times to play the central role of model construction, which is at the core of temporal irregularities. To acknowledge temporal irregularities, we first enable unique hidden states for components so that the arrival times can dictate when, how, and which hidden states to update. We then develop a conditional flow representation to non-parametrically represent the data distribution, which is typically non-Gaussian, and supervise this representation by carefully factorizing the log-likelihood objective to select conditional information that facilitates capturing time variation and path dependency. The broad applicability and superiority of the proposed solution are confirmed by comparing it with existing approaches through ablation studies and testing on real-world datasets.
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The derivation of mathematical results in specialised fields, using Large Language Models (LLMs), is an emerging research direction that can help identify models' limitations, and potentially support mathematical discovery. In this paper, we leverage a symbolic engine to generate derivations of equations at scale, and investigate the capabilities of LLMs when deriving goal equations from premises. Specifically, we employ in-context learning for GPT and fine-tune a range of T5 models to compare the robustness and generalisation of pre-training strategies to specialised models. Empirical results show that fine-tuned FLAN-T5-large (MathT5) outperforms GPT models on all static and out-of-distribution test sets in conventional scores. However, an in-depth analysis reveals that the fine-tuned models are more sensitive to perturbations involving unseen symbols and (to a lesser extent) changes to equation structure. In addition, we analyse 1.7K equations, and over 200 derivations, to highlight common reasoning errors such as the inclusion of incorrect, irrelevant, and redundant equations. Finally, we explore the suitability of existing metrics for evaluating mathematical derivations and find evidence that, while they can capture general properties such as sensitivity to perturbations, they fail to highlight fine-grained reasoning errors and essential differences between models. Overall, this work demonstrates that training models on synthetic data may improve their math capabilities beyond much larger LLMs, but current metrics are not appropriately assessing the quality of generated mathematical text.
Many evolutionary algorithms (EAs) take advantage of parallel evaluation of candidates. However, if evaluation times vary significantly, many worker nodes (i.e.,\ compute clients) are idle much of the time, waiting for the next generation to be created. Evolutionary neural architecture search (ENAS), a class of EAs that optimizes the architecture and hyperparameters of deep neural networks, is particularly vulnerable to this issue. This paper proposes a generic asynchronous evaluation strategy (AES) that is then adapted to work with ENAS. AES increases throughput by maintaining a queue of upto $K$ individuals ready to be sent to the workers for evaluation and proceeding to the next generation as soon as $M<<K$ individuals have been evaluated by the workers. A suitable value for $M$ is determined experimentally, balancing diversity and efficiency. To showcase the generality and power of AES, it was first evaluated in 11-bit multiplexer design (a single-population verifiable discovery task) and then scaled up to ENAS for image captioning (a multi-population open-ended-optimization task). In both problems, a multifold performance improvement was observed, suggesting that AES is a promising method for parallelizing the evolution of complex systems with long and variable evaluation times, such as those in ENAS.
Online Food Recommendation Service (OFRS) has remarkable spatiotemporal characteristics and the advantage of being able to conveniently satisfy users' needs in a timely manner. There have been a variety of studies that have begun to explore its spatiotemporal properties, but a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of the OFRS spatiotemporal features is yet to be conducted. Therefore, this paper studies the OFRS based on three questions: how spatiotemporal features play a role; why self-attention cannot be used to model the spatiotemporal sequences of OFRS; and how to combine spatiotemporal features to improve the efficiency of OFRS. Firstly, through experimental analysis, we systemically extracted the spatiotemporal features of OFRS, identified the most valuable features and designed an effective combination method. Secondly, we conducted a detailed analysis of the spatiotemporal sequences, which revealed the shortcomings of self-attention in OFRS, and proposed a more optimized spatiotemporal sequence method for replacing self-attention. In addition, we also designed a Dynamic Context Adaptation Model to further improve the efficiency and performance of OFRS. Through the offline experiments on two large datasets and online experiments for a week, the feasibility and superiority of our model were proven.
We investigate variability overweighting, a previously undocumented bias in line graphs, where estimates of average value are biased toward areas of higher variability in that line. We found this effect across two preregistered experiments with 140 and 420 participants. These experiments also show that the bias is reduced when using a dot encoding of the same series. We can model the bias with the average of the data series and the average of the points drawn along the line. This bias might arise because higher variability leads to stronger weighting in the average calculation, either due to the longer line segments (even though those segments contain the same number of data values) or line segments with higher variability being otherwise more visually salient. Understanding and predicting this bias is important for visualization design guidelines, recommendation systems, and tool builders, as the bias can adversely affect estimates of averages and trends.
Search query variation poses a challenge in e-commerce search, as equivalent search intents can be expressed through different queries with surface-level differences. This paper introduces a framework to recognize and leverage query equivalence to enhance searcher and business outcomes. The proposed approach addresses three key problems: mapping queries to vector representations of search intent, identifying nearest neighbor queries expressing equivalent or similar intent, and optimizing for user or business objectives. The framework utilizes both surface similarity and behavioral similarity to determine query equivalence. Surface similarity involves canonicalizing queries based on word inflection, word order, compounding, and noise words. Behavioral similarity leverages historical search behavior to generate vector representations of query intent. An offline process is used to train a sentence similarity model, while an online nearest neighbor approach supports processing of unseen queries. Experimental evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, outperforming popular sentence transformer models and achieving a Pearson correlation of 0.85 for query similarity. The results highlight the potential of leveraging historical behavior data and training models to recognize and utilize query equivalence in e-commerce search, leading to improved user experiences and business outcomes. Further advancements and benchmark datasets are encouraged to facilitate the development of solutions for this critical problem in the e-commerce domain.
The curse-of-dimensionality (CoD) taxes computational resources heavily with exponentially increasing computational cost as the dimension increases. This poses great challenges in solving high-dimensional PDEs as Richard Bellman first pointed out over 60 years ago. While there has been some recent success in solving numerically partial differential equations (PDEs) in high dimensions, such computations are prohibitively expensive, and true scaling of general nonlinear PDEs to high dimensions has never been achieved. In this paper, we develop a new method of scaling up physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to solve arbitrary high-dimensional PDEs. The new method, called Stochastic Dimension Gradient Descent (SDGD), decomposes a gradient of PDEs into pieces corresponding to different dimensions and samples randomly a subset of these dimensional pieces in each iteration of training PINNs. We theoretically prove the convergence guarantee and other desired properties of the proposed method. We experimentally demonstrate that the proposed method allows us to solve many notoriously hard high-dimensional PDEs, including the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) and the Schr\"{o}dinger equations in thousands of dimensions very fast on a single GPU using the PINNs mesh-free approach. For instance, we solve nontrivial nonlinear PDEs (one HJB equation and one Black-Scholes equation) in 100,000 dimensions in 6 hours on a single GPU using SDGD with PINNs. Since SDGD is a general training methodology of PINNs, SDGD can be applied to any current and future variants of PINNs to scale them up for arbitrary high-dimensional PDEs.
This paper proposes a computationally efficient framework, based on interval analysis, for rigorous verification of nonlinear continuous-time dynamical systems with neural network controllers. Given a neural network, we use an existing verification algorithm to construct inclusion functions for its input-output behavior. Inspired by mixed monotone theory, we embed the closed-loop dynamics into a larger system using an inclusion function of the neural network and a decomposition function of the open-loop system. This embedding provides a scalable approach for safety analysis of the neural control loop while preserving the nonlinear structure of the system. We show that one can efficiently compute hyper-rectangular over-approximations of the reachable sets using a single trajectory of the embedding system. We design an algorithm to leverage this computational advantage through partitioning strategies, improving our reachable set estimates while balancing its runtime with tunable parameters. We demonstrate the performance of this algorithm through two case studies. First, we demonstrate this method's strength in complex nonlinear environments. Then, we show that our approach matches the performance of the state-of-the art verification algorithm for linear discretized systems.
The ensemble data assimilation of computational fluid dynamics simulations based on the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) is implemented and optimized on a GPU supercomputer based on NVIDIA A100 GPUs. To connect the LBM and LETKF parts, data transpose communication is optimized by overlapping computation, file I/O, and communication based on data dependency in each LETKF kernel. In two dimensional forced isotropic turbulence simulations with the ensemble size of $M=64$ and the number of grid points of $N_x=128^2$, the optimized implementation achieved $\times3.80$ speedup from the naive implementation, in which the LETKF part is not parallelized. The main computing kernel of the local problem is the eigenvalue decomposition (EVD) of $M\times M$ real symmetric dense matrices, which is computed by a newly developed batched EVD in $\verb|EigenG|$. The batched EVD in $\verb|EigenG|$ outperforms that in $\verb|cuSOLVER|$, and $\times65.3$ speedup was achieved.
We consider the problem of computing bounds for causal queries on causal graphs with unobserved confounders and discrete valued observed variables, where identifiability does not hold. Existing non-parametric approaches for computing such bounds use linear programming (LP) formulations that quickly become intractable for existing solvers because the size of the LP grows exponentially in the number of edges in the causal graph. We show that this LP can be significantly pruned, allowing us to compute bounds for significantly larger causal inference problems compared to existing techniques. This pruning procedure allows us to compute bounds in closed form for a special class of problems, including a well-studied family of problems where multiple confounded treatments influence an outcome. We extend our pruning methodology to fractional LPs which compute bounds for causal queries which incorporate additional observations about the unit. We show that our methods provide significant runtime improvement compared to benchmarks in experiments and extend our results to the finite data setting. For causal inference without additional observations, we propose an efficient greedy heuristic that produces high quality bounds, and scales to problems that are several orders of magnitude larger than those for which the pruned LP can be solved.
Object detection typically assumes that training and test data are drawn from an identical distribution, which, however, does not always hold in practice. Such a distribution mismatch will lead to a significant performance drop. In this work, we aim to improve the cross-domain robustness of object detection. We tackle the domain shift on two levels: 1) the image-level shift, such as image style, illumination, etc, and 2) the instance-level shift, such as object appearance, size, etc. We build our approach based on the recent state-of-the-art Faster R-CNN model, and design two domain adaptation components, on image level and instance level, to reduce the domain discrepancy. The two domain adaptation components are based on H-divergence theory, and are implemented by learning a domain classifier in adversarial training manner. The domain classifiers on different levels are further reinforced with a consistency regularization to learn a domain-invariant region proposal network (RPN) in the Faster R-CNN model. We evaluate our newly proposed approach using multiple datasets including Cityscapes, KITTI, SIM10K, etc. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach for robust object detection in various domain shift scenarios.
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