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Large foundation models have demonstrated a great ability to achieve general human-level intelligence far beyond traditional approaches. As the technique keeps attracting attention from the AI community, more and more large foundation models have become publically available. However, most of those models exhibit a major deficiency in specialized-task applications, where the step of finetuning is still required for obtaining satisfactory performance. As the number of available models and specialized tasks keeps growing, the job of general finetuning becomes highly nontrivial. In this paper, we take the first step to address this issue. We introduce an extensible and lightweight toolkit, LMFlow, which aims to simplify the finetuning and inference of general large foundation models. LMFlow offers a complete finetuning workflow for a large foundation model to support personalized training with limited computing resources. Furthermore, it supports continuous pretraining, instruction tuning, parameter-efficient finetuning, alignment tuning, and large model inference, along with carefully designed and extensible APIs. This toolkit has been thoroughly tested and is available at //github.com/OptimalScale/LMFlow.

We propose a robust and reliable evaluation metric for generative models by introducing topological and statistical treatments for rigorous support estimation. Existing metrics, such as Inception Score (IS), Frechet Inception Distance (FID), and the variants of Precision and Recall (P&R), heavily rely on supports that are estimated from sample features. However, the reliability of their estimation has not been seriously discussed (and overlooked) even though the quality of the evaluation entirely depends on it. In this paper, we propose Topological Precision and Recall (TopP&R, pronounced 'topper'), which provides a systematic approach to estimating supports, retaining only topologically and statistically important features with a certain level of confidence. This not only makes TopP&R strong for noisy features, but also provides statistical consistency. Our theoretical and experimental results show that TopP&R is robust to outliers and non-independent and identically distributed (Non-IID) perturbations, while accurately capturing the true trend of change in samples. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first evaluation metric focused on the robust estimation of the support and provides its statistical consistency under noise.

Digital twins hold substantial promise in many applications, but rigorous procedures for assessing their accuracy are essential for their widespread deployment in safety-critical settings. By formulating this task within the framework of causal inference, we show that attempts to certify the correctness of a twin using real-world observational data are unsound unless potentially tenuous assumptions are made about the data-generating process. To avoid these assumptions, we propose an assessment strategy that instead aims to find cases where the twin is not correct, and present a general-purpose statistical procedure for doing so that may be used across a wide variety of applications and twin models. Our approach yields reliable and actionable information about the twin under minimal assumptions about the twin and the real-world process of interest. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methodology via a large-scale case study involving sepsis modelling within the Pulse Physiology Engine, which we assess using the MIMIC-III dataset of ICU patients.

Bayesian model-averaged meta-analysis allows quantification of evidence for both treatment effectiveness $\mu$ and across-study heterogeneity $\tau$. We use the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews to develop discipline-wide empirical prior distributions for $\mu$ and $\tau$ for meta-analyses of binary and time-to-event clinical trial outcomes. First, we use 50% of the database to estimate parameters of different required parametric families. Second, we use the remaining 50% of the database to select the best-performing parametric families and explore essential assumptions about the presence or absence of the treatment effectiveness and across-study heterogeneity in real data. We find that most meta-analyses of binary outcomes are more consistent with the absence of the meta-analytic effect or heterogeneity while meta-analyses of time-to-event outcomes are more consistent with the presence of the meta-analytic effect or heterogeneity. Finally, we use the complete database - with close to half a million trial outcomes - to propose specific empirical prior distributions, both for the field in general and for specific medical subdisciplines. An example from acute respiratory infections demonstrates how the proposed prior distributions can be used to conduct a Bayesian model-averaged meta-analysis in the open-source software R and JASP.

Large graphs are present in a variety of domains, including social networks, civil infrastructure, and the physical sciences to name a few. Graph generation is similarly widespread, with applications in drug discovery, network analysis and synthetic datasets among others. While GNN (Graph Neural Network) models have been applied in these domains their high in-memory costs restrict them to small graphs. Conversely less costly rule-based methods struggle to reproduce complex structures. We propose HIGGS (Hierarchical Generation of Graphs) as a model-agnostic framework of producing large graphs with realistic local structures. HIGGS uses GNN models with conditional generation capabilities to sample graphs in hierarchies of resolution. As a result HIGGS has the capacity to extend the scale of generated graphs from a given GNN model by quadratic order. As a demonstration we implement HIGGS using DiGress, a recent graph-diffusion model, including a novel edge-predictive-diffusion variant edge-DiGress. We use this implementation to generate categorically attributed graphs with tens of thousands of nodes. These HIGGS generated graphs are far larger than any previously produced using GNNs. Despite this jump in scale we demonstrate that the graphs produced by HIGGS are, on the local scale, more realistic than those from the rule-based model BTER.

Large-scale administrative or observational datasets are increasingly used to inform decision making. While this effort aims to ground policy in real-world evidence, challenges have arise as that selection bias and other forms of distribution shift often plague observational data. Previous attempts to provide robust inferences have given guarantees depending on a user-specified amount of possible distribution shift (e.g., the maximum KL divergence between the observed and target distributions). However, decision makers will often have additional knowledge about the target distribution which constrains the kind of shifts which are possible. To leverage such information, we proposed a framework that enables statistical inference in the presence of distribution shifts which obey user-specified constraints in the form of functions whose expectation is known under the target distribution. The output is high-probability bounds on the value an estimand takes on the target distribution. Hence, our method leverages domain knowledge in order to partially identify a wide class of estimands. We analyze the computational and statistical properties of methods to estimate these bounds, and show that our method can produce informative bounds on a variety of simulated and semisynthetic tasks.

Supervised machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms excel at predictive tasks, but it is commonly assumed that they often do so by exploiting non-causal correlations, which may limit both interpretability and generalizability. Here, we show that this trade-off between explanation and prediction is not as deep and fundamental as expected. Whereas ML and DL algorithms will indeed tend to use non-causal features for prediction when fed indiscriminately with all data, it is possible to constrain the learning process of any ML and DL algorithm by selecting features according to Pearl's backdoor adjustment criterion. In such a situation, some algorithms, in particular deep neural networks, can provide near unbiased effect estimates under feature collinearity. Remaining biases are explained by the specific algorithmic structures as well as hyperparameter choice. Consequently, optimal hyperparameter settings are different when tuned for prediction or inference, confirming the general expectation of a trade-off between prediction and explanation. However, the effect of this trade-off is small compared to the effect of a causally constrained feature selection. Thus, once the causal relationship between the features is accounted for, the difference between prediction and explanation may be much smaller than commonly assumed. We also show that such causally constrained models generalize better to new data with altered collinearity structures, suggesting generalization failure may often be due to a lack of causal learning. Our results not only provide a perspective for using ML for inference of (causal) effects but also help to improve the generalizability of fitted ML and DL models to new data.

The B\"uhlmann model, a branch of classical credibility theory, has been successively applied to the premium estimation for group insurance contracts and other insurance specifications. In this paper, we develop a robust B\"uhlmann credibility via the censored version of loss data, or the censored mean (a robust alternative to traditional individual mean). This framework yields explicit formulas of structural parameters in credibility estimation for both scale-shape distribution families, location-scale distribution families, and their variants, which are commonly used to model insurance risks. The asymptotic properties of the proposed method are provided and corroborated through simulations, and their performance is compared to that of credibility based on the trimmed mean. By varying the censoring/trimming threshold level in several parametric models, we find all structural parameters via censoring are less volatile compared to the corresponding quantities via trimming, and using censored mean as a robust risk measure will reduce the influence of parametric loss assumptions on credibility estimation. Besides, the non-parametric estimations in credibility are discussed using the theory of $L-$estimators. And a numerical illustration from Wisconsin Local Government Property Insurance Fund indicates that the proposed robust credibility can prevent the effect caused by model mis-specification and capture the risk behavior of loss data in a broader viewpoint.

Since the cyberspace consolidated as fifth warfare dimension, the different actors of the defense sector began an arms race toward achieving cyber superiority, on which research, academic and industrial stakeholders contribute from a dual vision, mostly linked to a large and heterogeneous heritage of developments and adoption of civilian cybersecurity capabilities. In this context, augmenting the conscious of the context and warfare environment, risks and impacts of cyber threats on kinetic actuations became a critical rule-changer that military decision-makers are considering. A major challenge on acquiring mission-centric Cyber Situational Awareness (CSA) is the dynamic inference and assessment of the vertical propagations from situations that occurred at the mission supportive Information and Communications Technologies (ICT), up to their relevance at military tactical, operational and strategical views. In order to contribute on acquiring CSA, this paper addresses a major gap in the cyber defence state-of-the-art: the dynamic identification of Key Cyber Terrains (KCT) on a mission-centric context. Accordingly, the proposed KCT identification approach explores the dependency degrees among tasks and assets defined by commanders as part of the assessment criteria. These are correlated with the discoveries on the operational network and the asset vulnerabilities identified thorough the supported mission development. The proposal is presented as a reference model that reveals key aspects for mission-centric KCT analysis and supports its enforcement and further enforcement by including an illustrative application case.

AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. We call these models foundation models to underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides a thorough account of the opportunities and risks of foundation models, ranging from their capabilities (e.g., language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) and technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) to their applications (e.g., law, healthcare, education) and societal impact (e.g., inequity, misuse, economic and environmental impact, legal and ethical considerations). Though foundation models are based on standard deep learning and transfer learning, their scale results in new emergent capabilities,and their effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization provides powerful leverage but demands caution, as the defects of the foundation model are inherited by all the adapted models downstream. Despite the impending widespread deployment of foundation models, we currently lack a clear understanding of how they work, when they fail, and what they are even capable of due to their emergent properties. To tackle these questions, we believe much of the critical research on foundation models will require deep interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate with their fundamentally sociotechnical nature.