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The goal of model compression is to reduce the size of a large neural network while retaining a comparable performance. As a result, computation and memory costs in resource-limited applications may be significantly reduced by dropping redundant weights, neurons, or layers. There have been many model compression algorithms proposed that provide impressive empirical success. However, a theoretical understanding of model compression is still limited. One problem is understanding if a network is more compressible than another of the same structure. Another problem is quantifying how much one can prune a network with theoretically guaranteed accuracy degradation. In this work, we propose to use the sparsity-sensitive $\ell_q$-norm ($0<q<1$) to characterize compressibility and provide a relationship between soft sparsity of the weights in the network and the degree of compression with a controlled accuracy degradation bound. We also develop adaptive algorithms for pruning each neuron in the network informed by our theory. Numerical studies demonstrate the promising performance of the proposed methods compared with standard pruning algorithms.

We present a static analysis for discovering differentiable or more generally smooth parts of a given probabilistic program, and show how the analysis can be used to improve the pathwise gradient estimator, one of the most popular methods for posterior inference and model learning. Our improvement increases the scope of the estimator from differentiable models to non-differentiable ones without requiring manual intervention of the user; the improved estimator automatically identifies differentiable parts of a given probabilistic program using our static analysis, and applies the pathwise gradient estimator to the identified parts while using a more general but less efficient estimator, called score estimator, for the rest of the program. Our analysis has a surprisingly subtle soundness argument, partly due to the misbehaviours of some target smoothness properties when viewed from the perspective of program analysis designers. For instance, some smoothness properties are not preserved by function composition, and this makes it difficult to analyse sequential composition soundly without heavily sacrificing precision. We formulate five assumptions on a target smoothness property, prove the soundness of our analysis under those assumptions, and show that our leading examples satisfy these assumptions. We also show that by using information from our analysis instantiated for differentiability, our improved gradient estimator satisfies an important differentiability requirement and thus computes the correct estimate on average (i.e., returns an unbiased estimate) under a regularity condition. Our experiments with representative probabilistic programs in the Pyro language show that our static analysis is capable of identifying smooth parts of those programs accurately, and making our improved pathwise gradient estimator exploit all the opportunities for high performance in those programs.

Motivated by recent progress on online linear programming (OLP), we study the online decision making problem (ODMP) as a natural generalization of OLP. In ODMP, there exists a single decision maker who makes a series of decisions spread out over a total of $T$ time stages. At each time stage, the decision maker makes a decision based on information obtained up to that point without seeing into the future. The task of the decision maker is to maximize the accumulated reward while overall meeting some predetermined $m$-dimensional long-term goal (linking) constraints. ODMP significantly broadens the modeling framework of OLP by allowing more general feasible regions (for local and goal constraints) potentially involving both discreteness and nonlinearity in each local decision making problem. We propose a Fenchel dual-based online algorithm for ODMP. At each time stage, the proposed algorithm requires solving a potentially nonconvex optimization problem over the local feasible set and a convex optimization problem over the goal set. Under the uniform random permutation model, we show that our algorithm achieves $O(\sqrt{mT})$ constraint violation deterministically in meeting the long-term goals, and $O(\sqrt{m\log m}\sqrt{T})$ competitive difference in expected reward with respect to the optimal offline decisions. We also extend our results to the grouped random permutation model.

Outliers widely occur in big-data applications and may severely affect statistical estimation and inference. In this paper, a framework of outlier-resistant estimation is introduced to robustify an arbitrarily given loss function. It has a close connection to the method of trimming and includes explicit outlyingness parameters for all samples, which in turn facilitates computation, theory, and parameter tuning. To tackle the issues of nonconvexity and nonsmoothness, we develop scalable algorithms with implementation ease and guaranteed fast convergence. In particular, a new technique is proposed to alleviate the requirement on the starting point such that on regular datasets, the number of data resamplings can be substantially reduced. Based on combined statistical and computational treatments, we are able to perform nonasymptotic analysis beyond M-estimation. The obtained resistant estimators, though not necessarily globally or even locally optimal, enjoy minimax rate optimality in both low dimensions and high dimensions. Experiments in regression, classification, and neural networks show excellent performance of the proposed methodology at the occurrence of gross outliers.

Despite the progress in medical data collection the actual burden of SARS-CoV-2 remains unknown due to severe under-ascertainment of cases. The use of reported deaths has been pointed out as a more reliable source of information, likely less prone to under-reporting. Given that daily deaths occur from past infections weighted by their probability of death, one may infer the true number of infections accounting for their age distribution, using the data on reported deaths. We adopt this framework and assume that the dynamics generating the total number of infections can be described by a continuous time transmission model expressed through a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations where the transmission rate is modelled as a diffusion process allowing to reveal both the effect of control strategies and the changes in individuals behavior. We study the case of 6 European countries and estimate the time-varying reproduction number($R_t$) as well as the true cumulative number of infected individuals using Stan. As we estimate the true number of infections we offer a more accurate estimate of $R_t$. We also provide an estimate of the daily reporting ratio and discuss the effects of changes in mobility and testing on the inferred quantities.

The approximation of integral type functionals is studied for discrete observations of a continuous It\^o semimartingale. Based on novel approximations in the Fourier domain, central limit theorems are proved for $L^2$-Sobolev functions with fractional smoothness. An explicit $L^2$-lower bound shows that already lower order quadrature rules, such as the trapezoidal rule and the classical Riemann estimator, are rate optimal, but only the trapezoidal rule is efficient, achieving the minimal asymptotic variance.

Causal learning has attracted much attention in recent years because causality reveals the essential relationship between things and indicates how the world progresses. However, there are many problems and bottlenecks in traditional causal learning methods, such as high-dimensional unstructured variables, combinatorial optimization problems, unknown intervention, unobserved confounders, selection bias and estimation bias. Deep causal learning, that is, causal learning based on deep neural networks, brings new insights for addressing these problems. While many deep learning-based causal discovery and causal inference methods have been proposed, there is a lack of reviews exploring the internal mechanism of deep learning to improve causal learning. In this article, we comprehensively review how deep learning can contribute to causal learning by addressing conventional challenges from three aspects: representation, discovery, and inference. We point out that deep causal learning is important for the theoretical extension and application expansion of causal science and is also an indispensable part of general artificial intelligence. We conclude the article with a summary of open issues and potential directions for future work.

A simulation is useful when the phenomenon of interest is either expensive to regenerate or irreproducible with the same context. Recently, Bayesian inference on the distribution of the simulation input parameter has been implemented sequentially to minimize the required simulation budget for the task of simulation validation to the real-world. However, the Bayesian inference is still challenging when the ground-truth posterior is multi-modal with a high-dimensional simulation output. This paper introduces a regularization technique, namely Neural Posterior Regularization (NPR), which enforces the model to explore the input parameter space effectively. Afterward, we provide the closed-form solution of the regularized optimization that enables analyzing the effect of the regularization. We empirically validate that NPR attains the statistically significant gain on benchmark performances for diverse simulation tasks.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.