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This paper proposes a new approach for testing Granger non-causality on panel data. Instead of aggregating panel member statistics, we aggregate their corresponding p-values and show that the resulting p-value approximately bounds the type I error by the chosen significance level even if the panel members are dependent. We compare our approach against the most widely used Granger causality algorithm on panel data and show that our approach yields lower FDR at the same power for large sample sizes and panels with cross-sectional dependencies. Finally, we examine COVID-19 data about confirmed cases and deaths measured in countries/regions worldwide and show that our approach is able to discover the true causal relation between confirmed cases and deaths while state-of-the-art approaches fail.

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CASES:International Conference on Compilers, Architectures, and Synthesis for Embedded Systems。 Explanation:嵌入式系統編譯(yi)器(qi)、體系結構和綜合國(guo)際會議。 Publisher:ACM。 SIT:

Neural memory enables fast adaptation to new tasks with just a few training samples. Existing memory models store features only from the single last layer, which does not generalize well in presence of a domain shift between training and test distributions. Rather than relying on a flat memory, we propose a hierarchical alternative that stores features at different semantic levels. We introduce a hierarchical prototype model, where each level of the prototype fetches corresponding information from the hierarchical memory. The model is endowed with the ability to flexibly rely on features at different semantic levels if the domain shift circumstances so demand. We meta-learn the model by a newly derived hierarchical variational inference framework, where hierarchical memory and prototypes are jointly optimized. To explore and exploit the importance of different semantic levels, we further propose to learn the weights associated with the prototype at each level in a data-driven way, which enables the model to adaptively choose the most generalizable features. We conduct thorough ablation studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of each component in our model. The new state-of-the-art performance on cross-domain and competitive performance on traditional few-shot classification further substantiates the benefit of hierarchical variational memory.

Vision Transformers (ViT) serve as powerful vision models. Unlike convolutional neural networks, which dominated vision research in previous years, vision transformers enjoy the ability to capture long-range dependencies in the data. Nonetheless, an integral part of any transformer architecture, the self-attention mechanism, suffers from high latency and inefficient memory utilization, making it less suitable for high-resolution input images. To alleviate these shortcomings, hierarchical vision models locally employ self-attention on non-interleaving windows. This relaxation reduces the complexity to be linear in the input size; however, it limits the cross-window interaction, hurting the model performance. In this paper, we propose a new shift-invariant local attention layer, called query and attend (QnA), that aggregates the input locally in an overlapping manner, much like convolutions. The key idea behind QnA is to introduce learned queries, which allow fast and efficient implementation. We verify the effectiveness of our layer by incorporating it into a hierarchical vision transformer model. We show improvements in speed and memory complexity while achieving comparable accuracy with state-of-the-art models. Finally, our layer scales especially well with window size, requiring up-to x10 less memory while being up-to x5 faster than existing methods. The code is publicly available at \url{//github.com/moabarar/qna}.

In this paper, we present novel synthetic training data called self-blended images (SBIs) to detect deepfakes. SBIs are generated by blending pseudo source and target images from single pristine images, reproducing common forgery artifacts (e.g., blending boundaries and statistical inconsistencies between source and target images). The key idea behind SBIs is that more general and hardly recognizable fake samples encourage classifiers to learn generic and robust representations without overfitting to manipulation-specific artifacts. We compare our approach with state-of-the-art methods on FF++, CDF, DFD, DFDC, DFDCP, and FFIW datasets by following the standard cross-dataset and cross-manipulation protocols. Extensive experiments show that our method improves the model generalization to unknown manipulations and scenes. In particular, on DFDC and DFDCP where existing methods suffer from the domain gap between the training and test sets, our approach outperforms the baseline by 4.90% and 11.78% points in the cross-dataset evaluation, respectively.

Annotating data for supervised learning can be costly. When the annotation budget is limited, active learning can be used to select and annotate those observations that are likely to give the most gain in model performance. We propose an active learning algorithm that, in addition to selecting which observation to annotate, selects the precision of the annotation that is acquired. Assuming that annotations with low precision are cheaper to obtain, this allows the model to explore a larger part of the input space, with the same annotation costs. We build our acquisition function on the previously proposed BALD objective for Gaussian Processes, and empirically demonstrate the gains of being able to adjust the annotation precision in the active learning loop.

Massive false rumors emerging along with breaking news or trending topics severely hinder the truth. Existing rumor detection approaches achieve promising performance on the yesterday`s news, since there is enough corpus collected from the same domain for model training. However, they are poor at detecting rumors about unforeseen events especially those propagated in different languages due to the lack of training data and prior knowledge (i.e., low-resource regimes). In this paper, we propose an adversarial contrastive learning framework to detect rumors by adapting the features learned from well-resourced rumor data to that of the low-resourced. Our model explicitly overcomes the restriction of domain and/or language usage via language alignment and a novel supervised contrastive training paradigm. Moreover, we develop an adversarial augmentation mechanism to further enhance the robustness of low-resource rumor representation. Extensive experiments conducted on two low-resource datasets collected from real-world microblog platforms demonstrate that our framework achieves much better performance than state-of-the-art methods and exhibits a superior capacity for detecting rumors at early stages.

Many forms of dependence manifest themselves over time, with behavior of variables in dynamical systems as a paradigmatic example. This paper studies temporal dependence in dynamical systems from a logical perspective, by extending a minimal modal base logic of static functional dependencies. We define a logic for dynamical systems with single time steps, provide a complete axiomatic proof calculus, and show the decidability of the satisfiability problem for a substantial fragment. The system comes in two guises: modal and first-order, that naturally complement each other. Next, we consider a timed semantics for our logic, as an intermediate between state spaces and temporal universes for the unfoldings of a dynamical system. We prove completeness and decidability by combining techniques from dynamic-epistemic logic and modal logic of functional dependencies with complex terms for objects. Also, we extend these results to the timed logic with functional symbols and term identity. Finally, we conclude with a brief outlook on how the system proposed here connects with richer temporal logics of system behavior, and with dynamic topological logic.

The numerical solution of singular eigenvalue problems is complicated by the fact that small perturbations of the coefficients may have an arbitrarily bad effect on eigenvalue accuracy. However, it has been known for a long time that such perturbations are exceptional and standard eigenvalue solvers, such as the QZ algorithm, tend to yield good accuracy despite the inevitable presence of roundoff error. Recently, Lotz and Noferini quantified this phenomenon by introducing the concept of $\delta$-weak eigenvalue condition numbers. In this work, we consider singular quadratic eigenvalue problems and two popular linearizations. Our results show that a correctly chosen linearization increases $\delta$-weak eigenvalue condition numbers only marginally, justifying the use of these linearizations in numerical solvers also in the singular case. We propose a very simple but often effective algorithm for computing well-conditioned eigenvalues of a singular quadratic eigenvalue problems by adding small random perturbations to the coefficients. We prove that the eigenvalue condition number is, with high probability, a reliable criterion for detecting and excluding spurious eigenvalues created from the singular part.

Object detection and tracking in videos represent essential and computationally demanding building blocks for current and future visual perception systems. In order to reduce the efficiency gap between available methods and computational requirements of real-world applications, we propose to re-think one of the most successful methods for image object detection, Faster R-CNN, and extend it to the video domain. Specifically, we extend the detection framework to learn instance-level embeddings which prove beneficial for data association and re-identification purposes. Focusing on the computational aspects of detection and tracking, our proposed method reaches a very high computational efficiency necessary for relevant applications, while still managing to compete with recent and state-of-the-art methods as shown in the experiments we conduct on standard object tracking benchmarks

Models for dependent data are distinguished by their targets of inference. Marginal models are useful when interest lies in quantifying associations averaged across a population of clusters. When the functional form of a covariate-outcome association is unknown, flexible regression methods are needed to allow for potentially non-linear relationships. We propose a novel marginal additive model (MAM) for modelling cluster-correlated data with non-linear population-averaged associations. The proposed MAM is a unified framework for estimation and uncertainty quantification of a marginal mean model, combined with inference for between-cluster variability and cluster-specific prediction. We propose a fitting algorithm that enables efficient computation of standard errors and corrects for estimation of penalty terms. We demonstrate the proposed methods in simulations and in application to (i) a longitudinal study of beaver foraging behaviour, and (ii) a spatial analysis of Loaloa infection in West Africa. R code for implementing the proposed methodology is available at //github.com/awstringer1/mam.

It is always well believed that modeling relationships between objects would be helpful for representing and eventually describing an image. Nevertheless, there has not been evidence in support of the idea on image description generation. In this paper, we introduce a new design to explore the connections between objects for image captioning under the umbrella of attention-based encoder-decoder framework. Specifically, we present Graph Convolutional Networks plus Long Short-Term Memory (dubbed as GCN-LSTM) architecture that novelly integrates both semantic and spatial object relationships into image encoder. Technically, we build graphs over the detected objects in an image based on their spatial and semantic connections. The representations of each region proposed on objects are then refined by leveraging graph structure through GCN. With the learnt region-level features, our GCN-LSTM capitalizes on LSTM-based captioning framework with attention mechanism for sentence generation. Extensive experiments are conducted on COCO image captioning dataset, and superior results are reported when comparing to state-of-the-art approaches. More remarkably, GCN-LSTM increases CIDEr-D performance from 120.1% to 128.7% on COCO testing set.

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