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How well do reward functions learned with inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) generalize? We illustrate that state-of-the-art IRL algorithms, which maximize a maximum-entropy objective, learn rewards that overfit to the demonstrations. Such rewards struggle to provide meaningful rewards for states not covered by the demonstrations, a major detriment when using the reward to learn policies in new situations. We introduce BC-IRL a new inverse reinforcement learning method that learns reward functions that generalize better when compared to maximum-entropy IRL approaches. In contrast to the MaxEnt framework, which learns to maximize rewards around demonstrations, BC-IRL updates reward parameters such that the policy trained with the new reward matches the expert demonstrations better. We show that BC-IRL learns rewards that generalize better on an illustrative simple task and two continuous robotic control tasks, achieving over twice the success rate of baselines in challenging generalization settings.

Quantitative characterizations and estimations of uncertainty are of fundamental importance in optimization and decision-making processes. Herein, we propose intuitive scores, which we call certainty and doubt, that can be used in both a Bayesian and frequentist framework to assess and compare the quality and uncertainty of predictions in (multi-)classification decision machine learning problems.

In this work, we examine recently developed methods for Bayesian inference of optimal dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs). DTRs are a set of treatment decision rules aimed at tailoring patient care to patient-specific characteristics, thereby falling within the realm of precision medicine. In this field, researchers seek to tailor therapy with the intention of improving health outcomes; therefore, they are most interested in identifying optimal DTRs. Recent work has developed Bayesian methods for identifying optimal DTRs in a family indexed by $\psi$ via Bayesian dynamic marginal structural models (MSMs) (Rodriguez Duque et al., 2022a); we review the proposed estimation procedure and illustrate its use via the new BayesDTR R package. Although methods in (Rodriguez Duque et al., 2022a) can estimate optimal DTRs well, they may lead to biased estimators when the model for the expected outcome if everyone in a population were to follow a given treatment strategy, known as a value function, is misspecified or when a grid search for the optimum is employed. We describe recent work that uses a Gaussian process ($GP$) prior on the value function as a means to robustly identify optimal DTRs (Rodriguez Duque et al., 2022b). We demonstrate how a $GP$ approach may be implemented with the BayesDTR package and contrast it with other value-search approaches to identifying optimal DTRs. We use data from an HIV therapeutic trial in order to illustrate a standard analysis with these methods, using both the original observed trial data and an additional simulated component to showcase a longitudinal (two-stage DTR) analysis.

The success of deep learning models depends on the size and quality of the dataset to solve certain tasks. Here, we explore how far generated data can aid real data in improving the performance of Neural Networks. In this work, we consider facial expression recognition since it requires challenging local data generation at the level of local regions such as mouth, eyebrows, etc, rather than simple augmentation. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) provide an alternative method for generating such local deformations but they need further validation. To answer our question, we consider noncomplex Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) based classifiers for recognizing Ekman emotions. For the data generation process, we consider generating facial expressions (FEs) by relying on two GANs. The first generates a random identity while the second imposes facial deformations on top of it. We consider training the CNN classifier using FEs from: real-faces, GANs-generated, and finally using a combination of real and GAN-generated faces. We determine an upper bound regarding the data generation quantity to be mixed with the real one which contributes the most to enhancing FER accuracy. In our experiments, we find out that 5-times more synthetic data to the real FEs dataset increases accuracy by 16%.

Conditional neural processes (CNPs; Garnelo et al., 2018a) are attractive meta-learning models which produce well-calibrated predictions and are trainable via a simple maximum likelihood procedure. Although CNPs have many advantages, they are unable to model dependencies in their predictions. Various works propose solutions to this, but these come at the cost of either requiring approximate inference or being limited to Gaussian predictions. In this work, we instead propose to change how CNPs are deployed at test time, without any modifications to the model or training procedure. Instead of making predictions independently for every target point, we autoregressively define a joint predictive distribution using the chain rule of probability, taking inspiration from the neural autoregressive density estimator (NADE) literature. We show that this simple procedure allows factorised Gaussian CNPs to model highly dependent, non-Gaussian predictive distributions. Perhaps surprisingly, in an extensive range of tasks with synthetic and real data, we show that CNPs in autoregressive (AR) mode not only significantly outperform non-AR CNPs, but are also competitive with more sophisticated models that are significantly more computationally expensive and challenging to train. This performance is remarkable given that AR CNPs are not trained to model joint dependencies. Our work provides an example of how ideas from neural distribution estimation can benefit neural processes, and motivates research into the AR deployment of other neural process models.

Modern AI practices all strive towards the same goal: better results. In the context of deep learning, the term "results" often refers to the achieved accuracy on a competitive problem set. In this paper, we adopt an idea from the emerging field of Green AI to consider energy consumption as a metric of equal importance to accuracy and to reduce any irrelevant tasks or energy usage. We examine the training stage of the deep learning pipeline from a sustainability perspective, through the study of hyperparameter tuning strategies and the model complexity, two factors vastly impacting the overall pipeline's energy consumption. First, we investigate the effectiveness of grid search, random search and Bayesian optimisation during hyperparameter tuning, and we find that Bayesian optimisation significantly dominates the other strategies. Furthermore, we analyse the architecture of convolutional neural networks with the energy consumption of three prominent layer types: convolutional, linear and ReLU layers. The results show that convolutional layers are the most computationally expensive by a strong margin. Additionally, we observe diminishing returns in accuracy for more energy-hungry models. The overall energy consumption of training can be halved by reducing the network complexity. In conclusion, we highlight innovative and promising energy-efficient practices for training deep learning models. To expand the application of Green AI, we advocate for a shift in the design of deep learning models, by considering the trade-off between energy efficiency and accuracy.

Unsupervised domain adaptation has recently emerged as an effective paradigm for generalizing deep neural networks to new target domains. However, there is still enormous potential to be tapped to reach the fully supervised performance. In this paper, we present a novel active learning strategy to assist knowledge transfer in the target domain, dubbed active domain adaptation. We start from an observation that energy-based models exhibit free energy biases when training (source) and test (target) data come from different distributions. Inspired by this inherent mechanism, we empirically reveal that a simple yet efficient energy-based sampling strategy sheds light on selecting the most valuable target samples than existing approaches requiring particular architectures or computation of the distances. Our algorithm, Energy-based Active Domain Adaptation (EADA), queries groups of targe data that incorporate both domain characteristic and instance uncertainty into every selection round. Meanwhile, by aligning the free energy of target data compact around the source domain via a regularization term, domain gap can be implicitly diminished. Through extensive experiments, we show that EADA surpasses state-of-the-art methods on well-known challenging benchmarks with substantial improvements, making it a useful option in the open world. Code is available at //github.com/BIT-DA/EADA.

Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.