Researchers commonly use difference-in-differences (DiD) designs to evaluate public policy interventions. While methods exist for estimating effects in the context of binary interventions, policies often result in varied exposures across regions implementing the policy. Yet, existing approaches for incorporating continuous exposures face substantial limitations in addressing confounding variables associated with intervention status, exposure levels, and outcome trends. These limitations significantly constrain policymakers' ability to fully comprehend policy impacts and design future interventions. In this work, we propose new estimators for causal effect curves within the DiD framework, accounting for multiple sources of confounding. Our approach accommodates misspecification of a subset of treatment, exposure, and outcome models while avoiding any parametric assumptions on the effect curve. We present the statistical properties of the proposed methods and illustrate their application through simulations and a study investigating the heterogeneous effects of a nutritional excise tax under different levels of accessibility to cross-border shopping.
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The advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) for organ segmentation and tumor detection is propelled by the growing availability of computed tomography (CT) datasets with detailed, per-voxel annotations. However, these AI models often struggle with flexibility for partially annotated datasets and extensibility for new classes due to limitations in the one-hot encoding, architectural design, and learning scheme. To overcome these limitations, we propose a universal, extensible framework enabling a single model, termed Universal Model, to deal with multiple public datasets and adapt to new classes (e.g., organs/tumors). Firstly, we introduce a novel language-driven parameter generator that leverages language embeddings from large language models, enriching semantic encoding compared with one-hot encoding. Secondly, the conventional output layers are replaced with lightweight, class-specific heads, allowing Universal Model to simultaneously segment 25 organs and six types of tumors and ease the addition of new classes. We train our Universal Model on 3,410 CT volumes assembled from 14 publicly available datasets and then test it on 6,173 CT volumes from four external datasets. Universal Model achieves first place on six CT tasks in the Medical Segmentation Decathlon (MSD) public leaderboard and leading performance on the Beyond The Cranial Vault (BTCV) dataset. In summary, Universal Model exhibits remarkable computational efficiency (6x faster than other dataset-specific models), demonstrates strong generalization across different hospitals, transfers well to numerous downstream tasks, and more importantly, facilitates the extensibility to new classes while alleviating the catastrophic forgetting of previously learned classes. Codes, models, and datasets are available at //github.com/ljwztc/CLIP-Driven-Universal-Model
Conventional methods for student modeling, which involve predicting grades based on measured activities, struggle to provide accurate results for minority/underrepresented student groups due to data availability biases. In this paper, we propose a Multi-Layer Personalized Federated Learning (MLPFL) methodology that optimizes inference accuracy over different layers of student grouping criteria, such as by course and by demographic subgroups within each course. In our approach, personalized models for individual student subgroups are derived from a global model, which is trained in a distributed fashion via meta-gradient updates that account for subgroup heterogeneity while preserving modeling commonalities that exist across the full dataset. The evaluation of the proposed methodology considers case studies of two popular downstream student modeling tasks, knowledge tracing and outcome prediction, which leverage multiple modalities of student behavior (e.g., visits to lecture videos and participation on forums) in model training. Experiments on three real-world online course datasets show significant improvements achieved by our approach over existing student modeling benchmarks, as evidenced by an increased average prediction quality and decreased variance across different student subgroups. Visual analysis of the resulting students' knowledge state embeddings confirm that our personalization methodology extracts activity patterns clustered into different student subgroups, consistent with the performance enhancements we obtain over the baselines.
Entity alignment (EA) aims to merge two knowledge graphs (KGs) by identifying equivalent entity pairs. While existing methods heavily rely on human-generated labels, it is prohibitively expensive to incorporate cross-domain experts for annotation in real-world scenarios. The advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) presents new avenues for automating EA with annotations, inspired by their comprehensive capability to process semantic information. However, it is nontrivial to directly apply LLMs for EA since the annotation space in real-world KGs is large. LLMs could also generate noisy labels that may mislead the alignment. To this end, we propose a unified framework, LLM4EA, to effectively leverage LLMs for EA. Specifically, we design a novel active learning policy to significantly reduce the annotation space by prioritizing the most valuable entities based on the entire inter-KG and intra-KG structure. Moreover, we introduce an unsupervised label refiner to continuously enhance label accuracy through in-depth probabilistic reasoning. We iteratively optimize the policy based on the feedback from a base EA model. Extensive experiments demonstrate the advantages of LLM4EA on four benchmark datasets in terms of effectiveness, robustness, and efficiency.
New developments are enabling AI systems to perceive, recognize, and respond with social cues based on inferences made from humans' explicit or implicit behavioral and verbal cues. These AI systems, equipped with an equivalent of human's Theory of Mind (ToM) capability, are currently serving as matchmakers on dating platforms, assisting student learning as teaching assistants, and enhancing productivity as work partners. They mark a new era in human-AI interaction (HAI) that diverges from traditional human-computer interaction (HCI), where computers are commonly seen as tools instead of social actors. Designing and understanding the human perceptions and experiences in this emerging HAI era becomes an urgent and critical issue for AI systems to fulfill human needs and mitigate risks across social contexts. In this paper, we posit the Mutual Theory of Mind (MToM) framework, inspired by our capability of ToM in human-human communications, to guide this new generation of HAI research by highlighting the iterative and mutual shaping nature of human-AI communication. We discuss the motivation of the MToM framework and its three key components that iteratively shape the human-AI communication in three stages. We then describe two empirical studies inspired by the MToM framework to demonstrate the power of MToM in guiding the design and understanding of human-AI communication. Finally, we discuss future research opportunities in human-AI interaction through the lens of MToM.
Finding the best solution is a common objective in combinatorial optimization (CO). In practice, directly handling constraints is often challenging, incorporating them into the objective function as the penalties. However, balancing these penalties to achieve the desired solution is time-consuming. Additionally, formulated objective functions and constraints often only approximate real-world scenarios, where the optimal solution is not necessarily the best solution for the original real-world problem. One solution is to obtain (i) penalty-diversified solutions with varying penalty strengths for the former issue and (ii) variation-diversified solutions with different characteristics for the latter issue. Users can then post-select the desired solution from these diverse solutions. However, efficiently finding these diverse solutions is more difficult than identifying one. This study introduces Continual Tensor Relaxation Annealing (CTRA) for unsupervised-learning (UL)-based CO solvers, a computationally efficient framework for finding these diverse solutions in a single training run. The key idea is to leverage representation learning capability to automatically and efficiently learn common representations and parallelization. Numerical experiments show that CTRA enables UL-based solvers to find these diverse solutions much faster than repeatedly running existing UL-based solvers.
Peer prediction mechanisms motivate high-quality feedback with provable guarantees. However, current methods only apply to rather simple reports, like multiple-choice or scalar numbers. We aim to broaden these techniques to the larger domain of text-based reports, drawing on the recent developments in large language models. This vastly increases the applicability of peer prediction mechanisms as textual feedback is the norm in a large variety of feedback channels: peer reviews, e-commerce customer reviews, and comments on social media. We introduce two mechanisms, the Generative Peer Prediction Mechanism (GPPM) and the Generative Synopsis Peer Prediction Mechanism (GSPPM). These mechanisms utilize LLMs as predictors, mapping from one agent's report to a prediction of her peer's report. Theoretically, we show that when the LLM prediction is sufficiently accurate, our mechanisms can incentivize high effort and truth-telling as an (approximate) Bayesian Nash equilibrium. Empirically, we confirm the efficacy of our mechanisms through experiments conducted on two real datasets: the Yelp review dataset and the ICLR OpenReview dataset. We highlight the results that on the ICLR dataset, our mechanisms can differentiate three quality levels -- human-written reviews, GPT-4-generated reviews, and GPT-3.5-generated reviews in terms of expected scores. Additionally, GSPPM penalizes LLM-generated reviews more effectively than GPPM.
Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) merges retrieval methods with deep learning advancements to address the static limitations of large language models (LLMs) by enabling the dynamic integration of up-to-date external information. This methodology, focusing primarily on the text domain, provides a cost-effective solution to the generation of plausible but incorrect responses by LLMs, thereby enhancing the accuracy and reliability of their outputs through the use of real-world data. As RAG grows in complexity and incorporates multiple concepts that can influence its performance, this paper organizes the RAG paradigm into four categories: pre-retrieval, retrieval, post-retrieval, and generation, offering a detailed perspective from the retrieval viewpoint. It outlines RAG's evolution and discusses the field's progression through the analysis of significant studies. Additionally, the paper introduces evaluation methods for RAG, addressing the challenges faced and proposing future research directions. By offering an organized framework and categorization, the study aims to consolidate existing research on RAG, clarify its technological underpinnings, and highlight its potential to broaden the adaptability and applications of LLMs.
The success of AI models relies on the availability of large, diverse, and high-quality datasets, which can be challenging to obtain due to data scarcity, privacy concerns, and high costs. Synthetic data has emerged as a promising solution by generating artificial data that mimics real-world patterns. This paper provides an overview of synthetic data research, discussing its applications, challenges, and future directions. We present empirical evidence from prior art to demonstrate its effectiveness and highlight the importance of ensuring its factuality, fidelity, and unbiasedness. We emphasize the need for responsible use of synthetic data to build more powerful, inclusive, and trustworthy language models.
Most recent semantic segmentation methods adopt a fully-convolutional network (FCN) with an encoder-decoder architecture. The encoder progressively reduces the spatial resolution and learns more abstract/semantic visual concepts with larger receptive fields. Since context modeling is critical for segmentation, the latest efforts have been focused on increasing the receptive field, through either dilated/atrous convolutions or inserting attention modules. However, the encoder-decoder based FCN architecture remains unchanged. In this paper, we aim to provide an alternative perspective by treating semantic segmentation as a sequence-to-sequence prediction task. Specifically, we deploy a pure transformer (ie, without convolution and resolution reduction) to encode an image as a sequence of patches. With the global context modeled in every layer of the transformer, this encoder can be combined with a simple decoder to provide a powerful segmentation model, termed SEgmentation TRansformer (SETR). Extensive experiments show that SETR achieves new state of the art on ADE20K (50.28% mIoU), Pascal Context (55.83% mIoU) and competitive results on Cityscapes. Particularly, we achieve the first (44.42% mIoU) position in the highly competitive ADE20K test server leaderboard.
Translational distance-based knowledge graph embedding has shown progressive improvements on the link prediction task, from TransE to the latest state-of-the-art RotatE. However, N-1, 1-N and N-N predictions still remain challenging. In this work, we propose a novel translational distance-based approach for knowledge graph link prediction. The proposed method includes two-folds, first we extend the RotatE from 2D complex domain to high dimension space with orthogonal transforms to model relations for better modeling capacity. Second, the graph context is explicitly modeled via two directed context representations. These context representations are used as part of the distance scoring function to measure the plausibility of the triples during training and inference. The proposed approach effectively improves prediction accuracy on the difficult N-1, 1-N and N-N cases for knowledge graph link prediction task. The experimental results show that it achieves better performance on two benchmark data sets compared to the baseline RotatE, especially on data set (FB15k-237) with many high in-degree connection nodes.
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