A nonlinear-manifold reduced order model (NM-ROM) is a great way of incorporating underlying physics principles into a neural network-based data-driven approach. We combine NM-ROMs with domain decomposition (DD) for efficient computation. NM-ROMs offer benefits over linear-subspace ROMs (LS-ROMs) but can be costly to train due to parameter scaling with the full-order model (FOM) size. To address this, we employ DD on the FOM, compute subdomain NM-ROMs, and then merge them into a global NM-ROM. This approach has multiple advantages: parallel training of subdomain NM-ROMs, fewer parameters than global NM-ROMs, and adaptability to subdomain-specific FOM features. Each subdomain NM-ROM uses a shallow, sparse autoencoder, enabling hyper-reduction (HR) for improved computational speed. In this paper, we detail an algebraic DD formulation for the FOM, train HR-equipped NM-ROMs for subdomains, and numerically compare them to DD LS-ROMs with HR. Results show a significant accuracy boost, on the order of magnitude, for the proposed DD NM-ROMs over DD LS-ROMs in solving the 2D steady-state Burgers' equation.
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We propose a framework where Fer and Wilcox expansions for the solution of differential equations are derived from two particular choices for the initial transformation that seeds the product expansion. In this scheme intermediate expansions can also be envisaged. Recurrence formulas are developed. A new lower bound for the convergence of the Wilcox expansion is provided as well as some applications of the results. In particular, two examples are worked out up to high order of approximation to illustrate the behavior of the Wilcox expansion.
After reviewing a large body of literature on the modeling of bivariate discrete distributions with finite support, \cite{Gee20} made a compelling case for the use of $I$-projections in the sense of \cite{Csi75} as a sound way to attempt to decompose a bivariate probability mass function (p.m.f.) into its two univariate margins and a bivariate p.m.f.\ with uniform margins playing the role of a discrete copula. From a practical perspective, the necessary $I$-projections on Fr\'echet classes can be carried out using the iterative proportional fitting procedure (IPFP), also known as Sinkhorn's algorithm or matrix scaling in the literature. After providing conditions under which a bivariate p.m.f.\ can be decomposed in the aforementioned sense, we investigate, for starting bivariate p.m.f.s with rectangular supports, nonparametric and parametric estimation procedures as well as goodness-of-fit tests for the underlying discrete copula. Related asymptotic results are provided and build upon a differentiability result for $I$-projections on Fr\'echet classes which can be of independent interest. Theoretical results are complemented by finite-sample experiments and a data example.
This work proposes a novel variational approximation of partial differential equations on moving geometries determined by explicit boundary representations. The benefits of the proposed formulation are the ability to handle large displacements of explicitly represented domain boundaries without generating body-fitted meshes and remeshing techniques. For the space discretization, we use a background mesh and an unfitted method that relies on integration on cut cells only. We perform this intersection by using clipping algorithms. To deal with the mesh movement, we pullback the equations to a reference configuration (the spatial mesh at the initial time slab times the time interval) that is constant in time. This way, the geometrical intersection algorithm is only required in 3D, another key property of the proposed scheme. At the end of the time slab, we compute the deformed mesh, intersect the deformed boundary with the background mesh, and consider an exact transfer operator between meshes to compute jump terms in the time discontinuous Galerkin integration. The transfer is also computed using geometrical intersection algorithms. We demonstrate the applicability of the method to fluid problems around rotating (2D and 3D) geometries described by oriented boundary meshes. We also provide a set of numerical experiments that show the optimal convergence of the method.
Network meta-analysis combines aggregate data (AgD) from multiple randomised controlled trials, assuming that any effect modifiers are balanced across populations. Individual patient data (IPD) meta-regression is the ``gold standard'' method to relax this assumption, however IPD are frequently only available in a subset of studies. Multilevel network meta-regression (ML-NMR) extends IPD meta-regression to incorporate AgD studies whilst avoiding aggregation bias, but currently requires the aggregate-level likelihood to have a known closed form. Notably, this prevents application to time-to-event outcomes. We extend ML-NMR to individual-level likelihoods of any form, by integrating the individual-level likelihood function over the AgD covariate distributions to obtain the respective marginal likelihood contributions. We illustrate with two examples of time-to-event outcomes, showing the performance of ML-NMR in a simulated comparison with little loss of precision from a full IPD analysis, and demonstrating flexible modelling of baseline hazards using cubic M-splines with synthetic data on newly diagnosed multiple myeloma. ML-NMR is a general method for synthesising individual and aggregate level data in networks of all sizes. Extension to general likelihoods, including for survival outcomes, greatly increases the applicability of the method. R and Stan code is provided, and the methods are implemented in the multinma R package.
Recently, addressing spatial confounding has become a major topic in spatial statistics. However, the literature has provided conflicting definitions, and many proposed definitions do not address the issue of confounding as it is understood in causal inference. We define spatial confounding as the existence of an unmeasured causal confounder with a spatial structure. We present a causal inference framework for nonparametric identification of the causal effect of a continuous exposure on an outcome in the presence of spatial confounding. We propose double machine learning (DML), a procedure in which flexible models are used to regress both the exposure and outcome variables on confounders to arrive at a causal estimator with favorable robustness properties and convergence rates, and we prove that this approach is consistent and asymptotically normal under spatial dependence. As far as we are aware, this is the first approach to spatial confounding that does not rely on restrictive parametric assumptions (such as linearity, effect homogeneity, or Gaussianity) for both identification and estimation. We demonstrate the advantages of the DML approach analytically and in simulations. We apply our methods and reasoning to a study of the effect of fine particulate matter exposure during pregnancy on birthweight in California.
A crucial challenge for solving problems in conflict research is in leveraging the semi-supervised nature of the data that arise. Observed response data such as counts of battle deaths over time indicate latent processes of interest such as intensity and duration of conflicts, but defining and labeling instances of these unobserved processes requires nuance and imprecision. The availability of such labels, however, would make it possible to study the effect of intervention-related predictors - such as ceasefires - directly on conflict dynamics (e.g., latent intensity) rather than through an intermediate proxy like observed counts of battle deaths. Motivated by this problem and the new availability of the ETH-PRIO Civil Conflict Ceasefires data set, we propose a Bayesian autoregressive (AR) hidden Markov model (HMM) framework as a sufficiently flexible machine learning approach for semi-supervised regime labeling with uncertainty quantification. We motivate our approach by illustrating the way it can be used to study the role that ceasefires play in shaping conflict dynamics. This ceasefires data set is the first systematic and globally comprehensive data on ceasefires, and our work is the first to analyze this new data and to explore the effect of ceasefires on conflict dynamics in a comprehensive and cross-country manner.
Recently, a family of unconventional integrators for ODEs with polynomial vector fields was proposed, based on the polarization of vector fields. The simplest instance is the by now famous Kahan discretization for quadratic vector fields. All these integrators seem to possess remarkable conservation properties. In particular, it has been proved that, when the underlying ODE is Hamiltonian, its polarization discretization possesses an integral of motion and an invariant volume form. In this note, we propose a new algebraic approach to derivation of the integrals of motion for polarization discretizations.
This paper introduces a new series of methods which combine modal decomposition algorithms, such as singular value decomposition and high-order singular value decomposition, and deep learning architectures to repair, enhance, and increase the quality and precision of numerical and experimental data. A combination of two- and three-dimensional, numerical and experimental dasasets are used to demonstrate the reconstruction capacity of the presented methods, showing that these methods can be used to reconstruct any type of dataset, showing outstanding results when applied to highly complex data, which is noisy. The combination of benefits of these techniques results in a series of data-driven methods which are capable of repairing and/or enhancing the resolution of a dataset by identifying the underlying physics that define the data, which is incomplete or under-resolved, filtering any existing noise. These methods and the Python codes are included in the first release of ModelFLOWs-app.
Comparisons of frequency distributions often invoke the concept of shift to describe directional changes in properties such as the mean. In the present study, we sought to define shift as a property in and of itself. Specifically, we define distributional shift (DS) as the concentration of frequencies away from the discrete class having the greatest value (e.g., the right-most bin of a histogram). We derive a measure of DS using the normalized sum of exponentiated cumulative frequencies. We then define relative distributional shift (RDS) as the difference in DS between two distributions, revealing the magnitude and direction by which one distribution is concentrated to lesser or greater discrete classes relative to another. We find that RDS is highly related to popular measures that, while based on the comparison of frequency distributions, do not explicitly consider shift. While RDS provides a useful complement to other comparative measures, DS allows shift to be quantified as a property of individual distributions, similar in concept to a statistical moment.
Suitable discretizations through tensor product formulas of popular multidimensional operators (diffusion or diffusion--advection, for instance) lead to matrices with $d$-dimensional Kronecker sum structure. For evolutionary Partial Differential Equations containing such operators and integrated in time with exponential integrators, it is then of paramount importance to efficiently approximate the actions of $\varphi$-functions of the arising matrices. In this work, we show how to produce directional split approximations of third order with respect to the time step size. They conveniently employ tensor-matrix products (the so-called $\mu$-mode product and related Tucker operator, realized in practice with high performance level 3 BLAS), and allow for the effective usage of exponential Runge--Kutta integrators up to order three. The technique can also be efficiently implemented on modern computer hardware such as Graphic Processing Units. The approach has been successfully tested against state-of-the-art techniques on two well-known physical models that lead to Turing patterns, namely the 2D Schnakenberg and the 3D FitzHugh--Nagumo systems, on different architectures.
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