To infer the treatment effect for a single treated unit using panel data, synthetic control methods construct a linear combination of control units' outcomes that mimics the treated unit's pre-treatment outcome trajectory. This linear combination is subsequently used to impute the counterfactual outcomes of the treated unit had it not been treated in the post-treatment period, and used to estimate the treatment effect. Existing synthetic control methods rely on correctly modeling certain aspects of the counterfactual outcome generating mechanism and may require near-perfect matching of the pre-treatment trajectory. Inspired by proximal causal inference, we obtain two novel nonparametric identifying formulas for the average treatment effect for the treated unit: one is based on weighting, and the other combines models for the counterfactual outcome and the weighting function. We introduce the concept of covariate shift to synthetic controls to obtain these identification results conditional on the treatment assignment. We also develop two treatment effect estimators based on these two formulas and the generalized method of moments. One new estimator is doubly robust: it is consistent and asymptotically normal if at least one of the outcome and weighting models is correctly specified. We demonstrate the performance of the methods via simulations and apply them to evaluate the effectiveness of a Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on the risk of all-cause pneumonia in Brazil.
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Motivated by a recent literature on the double-descent phenomenon in machine learning, we consider highly over-parametrized models in causal inference, including synthetic control with many control units. In such models, there may be so many free parameters that the model fits the training data perfectly. As a motivating example, we first investigate high-dimensional linear regression for imputing wage data, where we find that models with many more covariates than sample size can outperform simple ones. As our main contribution, we document the performance of high-dimensional synthetic control estimators with many control units. We find that adding control units can help improve imputation performance even beyond the point where the pre-treatment fit is perfect. We then provide a unified theoretical perspective on the performance of these high-dimensional models. Specifically, we show that more complex models can be interpreted as model-averaging estimators over simpler ones, which we link to an improvement in average performance. This perspective yields concrete insights into the use of synthetic control when control units are many relative to the number of pre-treatment periods.
The maximization of submodular functions have found widespread application in areas such as machine learning, combinatorial optimization, and economics, where practitioners often wish to enforce various constraints; the matroid constraint has been investigated extensively due to its algorithmic properties and expressive power. Recent progress has focused on fast algorithms for important classes of matroids given in explicit form. Currently, nearly-linear time algorithms only exist for graphic and partition matroids [ICALP '19]. In this work, we develop algorithms for monotone submodular maximization constrained by graphic, transversal matroids, or laminar matroids in time near-linear in the size of their representation. Our algorithms achieve an optimal approximation of $1-1/e-\epsilon$ and both generalize and accelerate the results of Ene and Nguyen [ICALP '19]. In fact, the running time of our algorithm cannot be improved within the fast continuous greedy framework of Badanidiyuru and Vondr\'ak [SODA '14]. To achieve near-linear running time, we make use of dynamic data structures that maintain bases with approximate maximum cardinality and weight under certain element updates. These data structures need to support a weight decrease operation and a novel FREEZE operation that allows the algorithm to freeze elements (i.e. force to be contained) in its basis regardless of future data structure operations. For the laminar matroid, we present a new dynamic data structure using the top tree interface of Alstrup, Holm, de Lichtenberg, and Thorup [TALG '05] that maintains the maximum weight basis under insertions and deletions of elements in $O(\log n)$ time. For the transversal matroid the FREEZE operation corresponds to requiring the data structure to keep a certain set $S$ of vertices matched, a property that we call $S$-stability.
Assessing causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding is a challenging problem. Although auxiliary variables, such as instrumental variables, are commonly used to identify causal effects, they are often unavailable in practice due to stringent and untestable conditions. To address this issue, previous researches have utilized linear structural equation models to show that the causal effect can be identifiable when noise variables of the treatment and outcome are both non-Gaussian. In this paper, we investigate the problem of identifying the causal effect using auxiliary covariates and non-Gaussianity from the treatment. Our key idea is to characterize the impact of unmeasured confounders using an observed covariate, assuming they are all Gaussian. The auxiliary covariate can be an invalid instrument or an invalid proxy variable. We demonstrate that the causal effect can be identified using this measured covariate, even when the only source of non-Gaussianity comes from the treatment. We then extend the identification results to the multi-treatment setting and provide sufficient conditions for identification. Based on our identification results, we propose a simple and efficient procedure for calculating causal effects and show the $\sqrt{n}$-consistency of the proposed estimator. Finally, we evaluate the performance of our estimator through simulation studies and an application.
Classical mathematical techniques such as discrete integration, gradient descent optimization, and state estimation (exemplified by the Runge-Kutta method, Gauss-Newton minimization, and extended Kalman filter or EKF, respectively), rely on linear algebra and hence are only applicable to state vectors belonging to Euclidean spaces when implemented as described in the literature. This document discusses how to modify these methods so they can be applied to non-Euclidean state vectors, such as those containing rotations and full motions of rigid bodies. To do so, this document provides an in-depth review of the concept of manifolds or Lie groups, together with their tangent spaces or Lie algebras, their exponential and logarithmic maps, the analysis of perturbations, the treatment of uncertainty and covariance, and in particular the definitions of the Jacobians required to employ the previously mentioned calculus methods. These concepts are particularized to the specific cases of the SO(3) and SE(3) Lie groups, known as the special orthogonal and special Euclidean groups of R3, which represent the rigid body rotations and motions, describing their various possible parameterizations as well as their advantages and disadvantages.
As phasor measurement units (PMUs) become more widely used in transmission power systems, a fast state estimation (SE) algorithm that can take advantage of their high sample rates is needed. To accomplish this, we present a method that uses graph neural networks (GNNs) to learn complex bus voltage estimates from PMU voltage and current measurements. We propose an original implementation of GNNs over the power system's factor graph to simplify the integration of various types and quantities of measurements on power system buses and branches. Furthermore, we augment the factor graph to improve the robustness of GNN predictions. This model is highly efficient and scalable, as its computational complexity is linear with respect to the number of nodes in the power system. Training and test examples were generated by randomly sampling sets of power system measurements and annotated with the exact solutions of linear SE with PMUs. The numerical results demonstrate that the GNN model provides an accurate approximation of the SE solutions. Furthermore, errors caused by PMU malfunctions or communication failures that would normally make the SE problem unobservable have a local effect and do not deteriorate the results in the rest of the power system.
In optimal covariance cleaning theory, minimizing the Frobenius norm between the true population covariance matrix and a rotational invariant estimator is a key step. This estimator can be obtained asymptotically for large covariance matrices, without knowledge of the true covariance matrix. In this study, we demonstrate that this minimization problem is equivalent to minimizing the loss of information between the true population covariance and the rotational invariant estimator for normal multivariate variables. However, for Student's t distributions, the minimal Frobenius norm does not necessarily minimize the information loss in finite-sized matrices. Nevertheless, such deviations vanish in the asymptotic regime of large matrices, which might extend the applicability of random matrix theory results to Student's t distributions. These distributions are characterized by heavy tails and are frequently encountered in real-world applications such as finance, turbulence, or nuclear physics. Therefore, our work establishes a connection between statistical random matrix theory and estimation theory in physics, which is predominantly based on information theory.
Existing bounds on the generalization error of deep networks assume some form of smooth or bounded dependence on the input variable, falling short of investigating the mechanisms controlling such factors in practice. In this work, we present an extensive experimental study of the empirical Lipschitz constant of deep networks undergoing double descent, and highlight non-monotonic trends strongly correlating with the test error. Building a connection between parameter-space and input-space gradients for SGD around a critical point, we isolate two important factors -- namely loss landscape curvature and distance of parameters from initialization -- respectively controlling optimization dynamics around a critical point and bounding model function complexity, even beyond the training data. Our study presents novels insights on implicit regularization via overparameterization, and effective model complexity for networks trained in practice.
Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) estimation is one of the main challenges in causal inference with observational data. In addition to Machine Learning based-models, nonparametric estimators called meta-learners have been developed to estimate the CATE with the main advantage of not restraining the estimation to a specific supervised learning method. This task becomes, however, more complicated when the treatment is not binary as some limitations of the naive extensions emerge. This paper looks into meta-learners for estimating the heterogeneous effects of multi-valued treatments. We consider different meta-learners, and we carry out a theoretical analysis of their error upper bounds as functions of important parameters such as the number of treatment levels, showing that the naive extensions do not always provide satisfactory results. We introduce and discuss meta-learners that perform well as the number of treatments increases. We empirically confirm the strengths and weaknesses of those methods with synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.
In 1-bit matrix completion, the aim is to estimate an underlying low-rank matrix from a partial set of binary observations. We propose a novel method for 1-bit matrix completion called MMGN. Our method is based on the majorization-minimization (MM) principle, which yields a sequence of standard low-rank matrix completion problems in our setting. We solve each of these sub-problems by a factorization approach that explicitly enforces the assumed low-rank structure and then apply a Gauss-Newton method. Our numerical studies and application to a real-data example illustrate that MMGN outputs comparable if not more accurate estimates, is often significantly faster, and is less sensitive to the spikiness of the underlying matrix than existing methods.
We study sublinear time algorithms for estimating the size of maximum matching. After a long line of research, the problem was finally settled by Behnezhad [FOCS'22], in the regime where one is willing to pay an approximation factor of $2$. Very recently, Behnezhad et al.[SODA'23] improved the approximation factor to $(2-\frac{1}{2^{O(1/\gamma)}})$ using $n^{1+\gamma}$ time. This improvement over the factor $2$ is, however, minuscule and they asked if even $1.99$-approximation is possible in $n^{2-\Omega(1)}$ time. We give a strong affirmative answer to this open problem by showing $(1.5+\epsilon)$-approximation algorithms that run in $n^{2-\Theta(\epsilon^{2})}$ time. Our approach is conceptually simple and diverges from all previous sublinear-time matching algorithms: we show a sublinear time algorithm for computing a variant of the edge-degree constrained subgraph (EDCS), a concept that has previously been exploited in dynamic [Bernstein Stein ICALP'15, SODA'16], distributed [Assadi et al. SODA'19] and streaming [Bernstein ICALP'20] settings, but never before in the sublinear setting. Independent work: Behnezhad, Roghani and Rubinstein [BRR'23] independently showed sublinear algorithms similar to our Theorem 1.2 in both adjacency list and matrix models. Furthermore, in [BRR'23], they show additional results on strictly better-than-1.5 approximate matching algorithms in both upper and lower bound sides.
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