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Neural networks solving real-world problems are often required not only to make accurate predictions but also to provide a confidence level in the forecast. The calibration of a model indicates how close the estimated confidence is to the true probability. This paper presents a survey of confidence calibration problems in the context of neural networks and provides an empirical comparison of calibration methods. We analyze problem statement, calibration definitions, and different approaches to evaluation: visualizations and scalar measures that estimate whether the model is well-calibrated. We review modern calibration techniques: based on post-processing or requiring changes in training. Empirical experiments cover various datasets and models, comparing calibration methods according to different criteria.

Owing to its high parallelism, belief propagation (BP) decoding is highly amenable to high-throughput implementations and thus represents a promising solution for meeting the ultra-high peak data rate of future communication systems. However, for polar codes, the error-correcting performance of BP decoding is far inferior to that of the widely used CRC-aided successive cancellation list (SCL) decoding algorithm. To close the performance gap to SCL, BP list (BPL) decoding expands the exploration of candidate codewords through multiple permuted factor graphs (PFGs). From an implementation perspective, designing a unified and flexible hardware architecture for BPL decoding that supports various PFGs and code configurations presents a big challenge. In this paper, we propose the first hardware implementation of a BPL decoder for polar codes and overcome the implementation challenge by applying a hardware-friendly algorithm that generates flexible permutations on-the-fly. First, we derive the graph selection gain and provide a sequential generation (SG) algorithm to obtain a near-optimal PFG set. We further prove that any permutation can be decomposed into a combination of multiple fixed routings, and we design a low-complexity permutation network to satisfy the decoding schedule. Our BPL decoder not only has a low decoding latency by executing the decoding and permutation generation in parallel, but also supports an arbitrary list size without any area overhead. Experimental results show that, for length-1024 polar codes with a code rate of one-half, our BPL decoder with 32 PFGs has a similar error-correcting performance to SCL with a list size of 4 and achieves a throughput of 25.63 Gbps and an area efficiency of 29.46 Gbps/mm$^{2}$ at SNR=4.0dB, which is 1.82$\times$ and 4.33$\times$ faster than the state-of-the-art BP flip and SCL decoders,~respectively

Switch-like responses arising from bistability have been linked to cell signaling processes and memory. Revealing the shape and properties of the set of parameters that lead to bistability is necessary to understand the underlying biological mechanisms, but is a complex mathematical problem. We present an efficient approach to determine a basic topological property of the parameter region of multistationary, namely whether it is connected or not. The connectivity of this region can be interpreted in terms of the biological mechanisms underlying bistability and the switch-like patterns that the system can create. We provide an algorithm to assert that the parameter region of multistationarity is connected, targeting reaction networks with mass-action kinetics. We show that this is the case for numerous relevant cell signaling motifs, previously described to exhibit bistability. However, we show that for a motif displaying a phosphorylation cycle with allosteric enzyme regulation, the region of multistationarity has two distinct connected components, corresponding to two different, but symmetric, biological mechanisms. The method relies on linear programming and bypasses the expensive computational cost of direct and generic approaches to study parametric polynomial systems. This characteristic makes it suitable for mass-screening of reaction networks.

Large-scale dynamics of the oceans and the atmosphere are governed by primitive equations (PEs). Due to the nonlinearity and nonlocality, the numerical study of the PEs is generally challenging. Neural networks have been shown to be a promising machine learning tool to tackle this challenge. In this work, we employ physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to approximate the solutions to the PEs and study the error estimates. We first establish the higher-order regularity for the global solutions to the PEs with either full viscosity and diffusivity, or with only the horizontal ones. Such a result for the case with only the horizontal ones is new and required in the analysis under the PINNs framework. Then we prove the existence of two-layer tanh PINNs of which the corresponding training error can be arbitrarily small by taking the width of PINNs to be sufficiently wide, and the error between the true solution and its approximation can be arbitrarily small provided that the training error is small enough and the sample set is large enough. In particular, all the estimates are a priori, and our analysis includes higher-order (in spatial Sobolev norm) error estimates. Numerical results on prototype systems are presented to further illustrate the advantage of using the $H^s$ norm during the training.

The dynamics of the power system are described by a system of differential-algebraic equations. Time-domain simulations are used to understand the evolution of the system dynamics. These simulations can be computationally expensive due to the stiffness of the system which requires the use of finely discretized time-steps. By increasing the allowable time-step size, we aim to accelerate such simulations. In this paper, we use the observation that even though the individual components are described using both algebraic and differential equations, their coupling only involves algebraic equations. Following this observation, we use Neural Networks (NNs) to approximate the components' state evolution, leading to fast, accurate, and numerically stable approximators, which enable larger time-steps. To account for effects of the network on the components and vice-versa, the NNs take the temporal evolution of the coupling algebraic variables as an input for their prediction. We initially estimate this temporal evolution and then update it in an iterative fashion using the Newton-Raphson algorithm. The involved Jacobian matrix is calculated with Automatic Differentiation and its size depends only on the network size but not on the component dynamics. We demonstrate this NN-based simulator on the IEEE 9-bus test case with 3 generators.

We present an algorithm for safe robot navigation in complex dynamic environments using a variant of model predictive equilibrium point control. We use an optimization formulation to navigate robots gracefully in dynamic environments by optimizing over a trajectory cost function at each timestep. We present a novel trajectory cost formulation that significantly reduces the conservative and deadlock behaviors and generates smooth trajectories. In particular, we propose a new collision probability function that effectively captures the risk associated with a given configuration and the time to avoid collisions based on the velocity direction. Moreover, we propose a terminal state cost based on the expected time-to-goal and time-to-collision values that helps in avoiding trajectories that could result in deadlock. We evaluate our cost formulation in multiple simulated and real-world scenarios, including narrow corridors with dynamic obstacles, and observe significantly improved navigation behavior and reduced deadlocks as compared to prior methods.

With well-selected data, homogeneous diffusion inpainting can reconstruct images from sparse data with high quality. While 4K colour images of size 3840 x 2160 can already be inpainted in real time, optimising the known data for applications like image compression remains challenging: Widely used stochastic strategies can take days for a single 4K image. Recently, a first neural approach for this so-called mask optimisation problem offered high speed and good quality for small images. It trains a mask generation network with the help of a neural inpainting surrogate. However, these mask networks can only output masks for the resolution and mask density they were trained for. We solve these problems and enable mask optimisation for high-resolution images through a neuroexplicit coarse-to-fine strategy. Additionally, we improve the training and interpretability of mask networks by including a numerical inpainting solver directly into the network. This allows to generate masks for 4K images in around 0.6 seconds while exceeding the quality of stochastic methods on practically relevant densities. Compared to popular existing approaches, this is an acceleration of up to four orders of magnitude.

The distributional reinforcement learning (RL) approach advocates for representing the complete probability distribution of the random return instead of only modelling its expectation. A distributional RL algorithm may be characterised by two main components, namely the representation of the distribution together with its parameterisation and the probability metric defining the loss. The present research work considers the unconstrained monotonic neural network (UMNN) architecture, a universal approximator of continuous monotonic functions which is particularly well suited for modelling different representations of a distribution. This property enables the efficient decoupling of the effect of the function approximator class from that of the probability metric. The research paper firstly introduces a methodology for learning different representations of the random return distribution (PDF, CDF and QF). Secondly, a novel distributional RL algorithm named unconstrained monotonic deep Q-network (UMDQN) is presented. To the authors' knowledge, it is the first distributional RL method supporting the learning of three, valid and continuous representations of the random return distribution. Lastly, in light of this new algorithm, an empirical comparison is performed between three probability quasi-metrics, namely the Kullback-Leibler divergence, Cramer distance, and Wasserstein distance. The results highlight the main strengths and weaknesses associated with each probability metric together with an important limitation of the Wasserstein distance.

Gradient-based learning in multi-layer neural networks displays a number of striking features. In particular, the decrease rate of empirical risk is non-monotone even after averaging over large batches. Long plateaus in which one observes barely any progress alternate with intervals of rapid decrease. These successive phases of learning often take place on very different time scales. Finally, models learnt in an early phase are typically `simpler' or `easier to learn' although in a way that is difficult to formalize. Although theoretical explanations of these phenomena have been put forward, each of them captures at best certain specific regimes. In this paper, we study the gradient flow dynamics of a wide two-layer neural network in high-dimension, when data are distributed according to a single-index model (i.e., the target function depends on a one-dimensional projection of the covariates). Based on a mixture of new rigorous results, non-rigorous mathematical derivations, and numerical simulations, we propose a scenario for the learning dynamics in this setting. In particular, the proposed evolution exhibits separation of timescales and intermittency. These behaviors arise naturally because the population gradient flow can be recast as a singularly perturbed dynamical system.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.