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We present a finite element approach for diffusion problems with thermal fluctuations based on a fluctuating hydrodynamics model. The governing transport equations are stochastic partial differential equations with a fluctuating forcing term. We propose a discrete formulation of the stochastic forcing term that has the correct covariance matrix up to a standard discretization error. Furthermore, to obtain a numerical solution with spatial correlations that converge to those of the continuum equation, we derive a linear mapping to transform the finite element solution into an equivalent discrete solution that is free from the artificial correlations introduced by the spatial discretization. The method is validated by applying it to two diffusion problems: a second-order diffusion equation and a fourth-order diffusion equation. The theoretical (continuum) solution to the first case presents spatially decorrelated fluctuations, while the second case presents fluctuations correlated over a finite length. In both cases, the numerical solution presents a structure factor that approximates well the continuum one.

Multistate Markov models are a canonical parametric approach for data modeling of observed or latent stochastic processes supported on a finite state space. Continuous-time Markov processes describe data that are observed irregularly over time, as is often the case in longitudinal medical data, for example. Assuming that a continuous-time Markov process is time-homogeneous, a closed-form likelihood function can be derived from the Kolmogorov forward equations -- a system of differential equations with a well-known matrix-exponential solution. Unfortunately, however, the forward equations do not admit an analytical solution for continuous-time, time-inhomogeneous Markov processes, and so researchers and practitioners often make the simplifying assumption that the process is piecewise time-homogeneous. In this paper, we provide intuitions and illustrations of the potential biases for parameter estimation that may ensue in the more realistic scenario that the piecewise-homogeneous assumption is violated, and we advocate for a solution for likelihood computation in a truly time-inhomogeneous fashion. Particular focus is afforded to the context of multistate Markov models that allow for state label misclassifications, which applies more broadly to hidden Markov models (HMMs), and Bayesian computations bypass the necessity for computationally demanding numerical gradient approximations for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs). Supplemental materials are available online.

A new scheme is proposed to construct an n-times differentiable function extension of an n-times differentiable function defined on a smooth domain D in d-dimensions. The extension scheme relies on an explicit formula consisting of a linear combination of n+1 function values in D, which extends the function along directions normal to the boundary. Smoothness tangent to the boundary is automatic. The performance of the scheme is illustrated by using function extension as a step in a numerical solver for the inhomogeneous Poisson equation on multiply connected domains with complex geometry in two and three dimensions. We show that the modest additional work needed to do function extension leads to considerably more accurate solutions of the partial differential equation.

The Cox proportional hazards model (Cox model) is a popular model for survival data analysis. When the sample size is small relative to the dimension of the model, the standard maximum partial likelihood inference is often problematic. In this work, we propose the Cox catalytic prior distributions for Bayesian inference on Cox models, which is an extension of a general class of prior distributions originally designed for stabilizing complex parametric models. The Cox catalytic prior is formulated as a weighted likelihood of the regression coefficients based on synthetic data and a surrogate baseline hazard constant. This surrogate hazard can be either provided by the user or estimated from the data, and the synthetic data are generated from the predictive distribution of a fitted simpler model. For point estimation, we derive an approximation of the marginal posterior mode, which can be computed conveniently as a regularized log partial likelihood estimator. We prove that our prior distribution is proper and the resulting estimator is consistent under mild conditions. In simulation studies, our proposed method outperforms standard maximum partial likelihood inference and is on par with existing shrinkage methods. We further illustrate the application of our method to a real dataset.

A nonlinear-manifold reduced order model (NM-ROM) is a great way of incorporating underlying physics principles into a neural network-based data-driven approach. We combine NM-ROMs with domain decomposition (DD) for efficient computation. NM-ROMs offer benefits over linear-subspace ROMs (LS-ROMs) but can be costly to train due to parameter scaling with the full-order model (FOM) size. To address this, we employ DD on the FOM, compute subdomain NM-ROMs, and then merge them into a global NM-ROM. This approach has multiple advantages: parallel training of subdomain NM-ROMs, fewer parameters than global NM-ROMs, and adaptability to subdomain-specific FOM features. Each subdomain NM-ROM uses a shallow, sparse autoencoder, enabling hyper-reduction (HR) for improved computational speed. In this paper, we detail an algebraic DD formulation for the FOM, train HR-equipped NM-ROMs for subdomains, and numerically compare them to DD LS-ROMs with HR. Results show a significant accuracy boost, on the order of magnitude, for the proposed DD NM-ROMs over DD LS-ROMs in solving the 2D steady-state Burgers' equation.

Many approaches have been proposed to use diffusion models to augment training datasets for downstream tasks, such as classification. However, diffusion models are themselves trained on large datasets, often with noisy annotations, and it remains an open question to which extent these models contribute to downstream classification performance. In particular, it remains unclear if they generalize enough to improve over directly using the additional data of their pre-training process for augmentation. We systematically evaluate a range of existing methods to generate images from diffusion models and study new extensions to assess their benefit for data augmentation. Personalizing diffusion models towards the target data outperforms simpler prompting strategies. However, using the pre-training data of the diffusion model alone, via a simple nearest-neighbor retrieval procedure, leads to even stronger downstream performance. Our study explores the potential of diffusion models in generating new training data, and surprisingly finds that these sophisticated models are not yet able to beat a simple and strong image retrieval baseline on simple downstream vision tasks.

Parameter identification problems in partial differential equations (PDEs) consist in determining one or more unknown functional parameters in a PDE. Here, the Bayesian nonparametric approach to such problems is considered. Focusing on the representative example of inferring the diffusivity function in an elliptic PDE from noisy observations of the PDE solution, the performance of Bayesian procedures based on Gaussian process priors is investigated. Recent asymptotic theoretical guarantees establishing posterior consistency and convergence rates are reviewed and expanded upon. An implementation of the associated posterior-based inference is provided, and illustrated via a numerical simulation study where two different discretisation strategies are devised. The reproducible code is available at: //github.com/MattGiord.

High-dimensional, higher-order tensor data are gaining prominence in a variety of fields, including but not limited to computer vision and network analysis. Tensor factor models, induced from noisy versions of tensor decomposition or factorization, are natural potent instruments to study a collection of tensor-variate objects that may be dependent or independent. However, it is still in the early stage of developing statistical inferential theories for estimation of various low-rank structures, which are customary to play the role of signals of tensor factor models. In this paper, starting from tensor matricization, we aim to ``decode" estimation of a higher-order tensor factor model in the sense that, we recast it into mode-wise traditional high-dimensional vector/fiber factor models so as to deploy the conventional estimation of principle components analysis (PCA). Demonstrated by the Tucker tensor factor model (TuTFaM), which is induced from most popular Tucker decomposition, we summarize that estimations on signal components are essentially mode-wise PCA techniques, and the involvement of projection and iteration will enhance the signal-to-noise ratio to various extend. We establish the inferential theory of the proposed estimations and conduct rich simulation experiments under TuTFaM, and illustrate how the proposed estimations can work in tensor reconstruction, clustering for video and economic datasets, respectively.

Many generalised distributions exist for modelling data with vastly diverse characteristics. However, very few of these generalisations of the normal distribution have shape parameters with clear roles that determine, for instance, skewness and tail shape. In this chapter, we review existing skewing mechanisms and their properties in detail. Using the knowledge acquired, we add a skewness parameter to the body-tail generalised normal distribution \cite{BTGN}, that yields the \ac{FIN} with parameters for location, scale, body-shape, skewness, and tail weight. Basic statistical properties of the \ac{FIN} are provided, such as the \ac{PDF}, cumulative distribution function, moments, and likelihood equations. Additionally, the \ac{FIN} \ac{PDF} is extended to a multivariate setting using a student t-copula, yielding the \ac{MFIN}. The \ac{MFIN} is applied to stock returns data, where it outperforms the t-copula multivariate generalised hyperbolic, Azzalini skew-t, hyperbolic, and normal inverse Gaussian distributions.

Deep learning is usually described as an experiment-driven field under continuous criticizes of lacking theoretical foundations. This problem has been partially fixed by a large volume of literature which has so far not been well organized. This paper reviews and organizes the recent advances in deep learning theory. The literature is categorized in six groups: (1) complexity and capacity-based approaches for analyzing the generalizability of deep learning; (2) stochastic differential equations and their dynamic systems for modelling stochastic gradient descent and its variants, which characterize the optimization and generalization of deep learning, partially inspired by Bayesian inference; (3) the geometrical structures of the loss landscape that drives the trajectories of the dynamic systems; (4) the roles of over-parameterization of deep neural networks from both positive and negative perspectives; (5) theoretical foundations of several special structures in network architectures; and (6) the increasingly intensive concerns in ethics and security and their relationships with generalizability.