It is common to conduct causal inference in matched observational studies by proceeding as though treatment assignments within matched sets are assigned uniformly at random and using this distribution as the basis for inference. This approach ignores observed discrepancies in matched sets that may be consequential for the distribution of treatment, which are succinctly captured by within-set differences in the propensity score. We address this problem via covariate-adaptive randomization inference, which modifies the permutation probabilities to vary with estimated propensity score discrepancies and avoids requirements to exclude matched pairs or model an outcome variable. We show that the test achieves type I error control arbitrarily close to the nominal level when large samples are available for propensity score estimation. We characterize the large-sample behavior of the new randomization test for a difference-in-means estimator of a constant additive effect. We also show that existing methods of sensitivity analysis generalize effectively to covariate-adaptive randomization inference. Finally, we evaluate the empirical value of covariate-adaptive randomization procedures via comparisons to traditional uniform inference in matched designs with and without propensity score calipers and regression adjustment using simulations and analyses of genetic damage among welders and right-heart catheterization in surgical patients.
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Defining a successful notion of a multivariate quantile has been an open problem for more than half a century, motivating a plethora of possible solutions. Of these, the approach of [8] and [25] leading to M-quantiles, is very appealing for its mathematical elegance combining elements of convex analysis and probability theory. The key idea is the description of a convex function (the K-function) whose gradient (the K-transform) is in one-to-one correspondence between all of R^d and the unit ball in R^d. By analogy with the d=1 case where the K-transform is a cumulative distribution function-like object (an M-distribution), the fact that its inverse is guaranteed to exist lends itself naturally to providing the basis for the definition of a quantile function for all d>=1. Over the past twenty years the resulting M-quantiles have seen applications in a variety of fields, primarily for the purpose of detecting outliers in multidimensional spaces. In this article we prove that for odd d>=3, it is not the gradient but a poly-Laplacian of the K-function that is (almost everywhere) proportional to the density function. For d even one cannot establish a differential equation connecting the K-function with the density. These results show that usage of the K-transform for outlier detection in higher odd-dimensions is in principle flawed, as the K-transform does not originate from inversion of a true M-distribution. We demonstrate these conclusions in two dimensions through examples from non-standard asymmetric distributions. Our examples illustrate a feature of the K-transform whereby regions in the domain with higher density map to larger volumes in the co-domain, thereby producing a magnification effect that moves inliers closer to the boundary of the co-domain than outliers. This feature obviously disrupts any outlier detection mechanism that relies on the inverse K-transform.
We analyze the prediction error of principal component regression (PCR) and prove high probability bounds for the corresponding squared risk conditional on the design. Our first main result shows that PCR performs comparably to the oracle method obtained by replacing empirical principal components by their population counterparts, provided that an effective rank condition holds. On the other hand, if the latter condition is violated, then empirical eigenvalues start to have a significant upward bias, resulting in a self-induced regularization of PCR. Our approach relies on the behavior of empirical eigenvalues, empirical eigenvectors and the excess risk of principal component analysis in high-dimensional regimes.
Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) and their variants have recently emerged as alternatives to traditional partial differential equation (PDE) solvers, but little literature has focused on devising accurate numerical integration methods for neural networks (NNs), which is essential for getting accurate solutions. In this work, we propose adaptive quadratures for the accurate integration of neural networks and apply them to loss functions appearing in low-dimensional PDE discretisations. We show that at opposite ends of the spectrum, continuous piecewise linear (CPWL) activation functions enable one to bound the integration error, while smooth activations ease the convergence of the optimisation problem. We strike a balance by considering a CPWL approximation of a smooth activation function. The CPWL activation is used to obtain an adaptive decomposition of the domain into regions where the network is almost linear, and we derive an adaptive global quadrature from this mesh. The loss function is then obtained by evaluating the smooth network (together with other quantities, e.g., the forcing term) at the quadrature points. We propose a method to approximate a class of smooth activations by CPWL functions and show that it has a quadratic convergence rate. We then derive an upper bound for the overall integration error of our proposed adaptive quadrature. The benefits of our quadrature are evaluated on a strong and weak formulation of the Poisson equation in dimensions one and two. Our numerical experiments suggest that compared to Monte-Carlo integration, our adaptive quadrature makes the convergence of NNs quicker and more robust to parameter initialisation while needing significantly fewer integration points and keeping similar training times.
In this paper, we propose the application of shrinkage strategies to estimate coefficients in the Bell regression models when prior information about the coefficients is available. The Bell regression models are well-suited for modeling count data with multiple covariates. Furthermore, we provide a detailed explanation of the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators, including asymptotic biases and mean squared errors. To assess the performance of the estimators, we conduct numerical studies using Monte Carlo simulations and evaluate their simulated relative efficiency. The results demonstrate that the suggested estimators outperform the unrestricted estimator when prior information is taken into account. Additionally, we present an empirical application to demonstrate the practical utility of the suggested estimators.
String matching algorithms in the presence of abbreviations, such as in Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) product catalogs, remains a relatively unexplored topic. In this paper, we present a unified architecture for SKU search that provides both a real-time suggestion system (based on a Trie data structure) as well as a lower latency search system (making use of character level TF-IDF in combination with language model vector embeddings) where users initiate the search process explicitly. We carry out ablation studies that justify designing a complex search system composed of multiple components to address the delicate trade-off between speed and accuracy. Using SKU search in the Dynamics CRM as an example, we show how our system vastly outperforms, in all aspects, the results provided by the default search engine. Finally, we show how SKU descriptions may be enhanced via generative text models (using gpt-3.5-turbo) so that the consumers of the search results may get more context and a generally better experience when presented with the results of their SKU search.
Over the past decade, characterizing the exact asymptotic risk of regularized estimators in high-dimensional regression has emerged as a popular line of work. This literature considers the proportional asymptotics framework, where the number of features and samples both diverge, at a rate proportional to each other. Substantial work in this area relies on Gaussianity assumptions on the observed covariates. Further, these studies often assume the design entries to be independent and identically distributed. Parallel research investigates the universality of these findings, revealing that results based on the i.i.d.~Gaussian assumption extend to a broad class of designs, such as i.i.d.~sub-Gaussians. However, universality results examining dependent covariates so far focused on correlation-based dependence or a highly structured form of dependence, as permitted by right rotationally invariant designs. In this paper, we break this barrier and study a dependence structure that in general falls outside the purview of these established classes. We seek to pin down the extent to which results based on i.i.d.~Gaussian assumptions persist. We identify a class of designs characterized by a block dependence structure that ensures the universality of i.i.d.~Gaussian-based results. We establish that the optimal values of the regularized empirical risk and the risk associated with convex regularized estimators, such as the Lasso and ridge, converge to the same limit under block dependent designs as they do for i.i.d.~Gaussian entry designs. Our dependence structure differs significantly from correlation-based dependence, and enables, for the first time, asymptotically exact risk characterization in prevalent nonparametric regression problems in high dimensions. Finally, we illustrate through experiments that this universality becomes evident quite early, even for relatively moderate sample sizes.
Multiscale stochastic dynamical systems have been widely adopted to a variety of scientific and engineering problems due to their capability of depicting complex phenomena in many real world applications. This work is devoted to investigating the effective dynamics for slow-fast stochastic dynamical systems. Given observation data on a short-term period satisfying some unknown slow-fast stochastic systems, we propose a novel algorithm including a neural network called Auto-SDE to learn invariant slow manifold. Our approach captures the evolutionary nature of a series of time-dependent autoencoder neural networks with the loss constructed from a discretized stochastic differential equation. Our algorithm is also validated to be accurate, stable and effective through numerical experiments under various evaluation metrics.
For the convolutional neural network (CNN) used for pattern classification, the training loss function is usually applied to the final output of the network, except for some regularization constraints on the network parameters. However, with the increasing of the number of network layers, the influence of the loss function on the network front layers gradually decreases, and the network parameters tend to fall into local optimization. At the same time, it is found that the trained network has significant information redundancy at all stages of features, which reduces the effectiveness of feature mapping at all stages and is not conducive to the change of the subsequent parameters of the network in the direction of optimality. Therefore, it is possible to obtain a more optimized solution of the network and further improve the classification accuracy of the network by designing a loss function for restraining the front stage features and eliminating the information redundancy of the front stage features .For CNN, this article proposes a multi-stage feature decorrelation loss (MFD Loss), which refines effective features and eliminates information redundancy by constraining the correlation of features at all stages. Considering that there are many layers in CNN, through experimental comparison and analysis, MFD Loss acts on multiple front layers of CNN, constrains the output features of each layer and each channel, and performs supervision training jointly with classification loss function during network training. Compared with the single Softmax Loss supervised learning, the experiments on several commonly used datasets on several typical CNNs prove that the classification performance of Softmax Loss+MFD Loss is significantly better. Meanwhile, the comparison experiments before and after the combination of MFD Loss and some other typical loss functions verify its good universality.
When studying the association between treatment and a clinical outcome, a parametric multivariable model of the conditional outcome expectation is often used to adjust for covariates. The treatment coefficient of the outcome model targets a conditional treatment effect. Model-based standardization is typically applied to average the model predictions over the target covariate distribution, and generate a covariate-adjusted estimate of the marginal treatment effect. The standard approach to model-based standardization involves maximum-likelihood estimation and use of the non-parametric bootstrap. We introduce a novel, general-purpose, model-based standardization method based on multiple imputation that is easily applicable when the outcome model is a generalized linear model. We term our proposed approach multiple imputation marginalization (MIM). MIM consists of two main stages: the generation of synthetic datasets and their analysis. MIM accommodates a Bayesian statistical framework, which naturally allows for the principled propagation of uncertainty, integrates the analysis into a probabilistic framework, and allows for the incorporation of prior evidence. We conduct a simulation study to benchmark the finite-sample performance of MIM in conjunction with a parametric outcome model. The simulations provide proof-of-principle in scenarios with binary outcomes, continuous-valued covariates, a logistic outcome model and the marginal log odds ratio as the target effect measure. When parametric modeling assumptions hold, MIM yields unbiased estimation in the target covariate distribution, valid coverage rates, and similar precision and efficiency than the standard approach to model-based standardization.
Convergence of classical parallel iterations is detected by performing a reduction operation at each iteration in order to compute a residual error relative to a potential solution vector. To efficiently run asynchronous iterations, blocking communication requests are avoided, which makes it hard to isolate and handle any global vector. While some termination protocols were proposed for asynchronous iterations, only very few of them are based on global residual computation and guarantee effective convergence. But the most effective and efficient existing solutions feature two reduction operations, which constitutes an important factor of termination delay. In this paper, we present new, non-intrusive, protocols to compute a residual error under asynchronous iterations, requiring only one reduction operation. Various communication models show that some heuristics can even be introduced and formally evaluated. Extensive experiments with up to 5600 processor cores confirm the practical effectiveness and efficiency of our approach.
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