We propose a Stochastic MPC (SMPC) formulation for autonomous driving at traffic intersections which incorporates multi-modal predictions of surrounding vehicles for collision avoidance constraints. The multi-modal predictions are obtained with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) and constraints are formulated as chance-constraints. Our main theoretical contribution is a SMPC formulation that optimizes over a novel feedback policy class designed to exploit additional structure in the GMM predictions, and that is amenable to convex programming. The use of feedback policies for prediction is motivated by the need for reduced conservatism in handling multi-modal predictions of the surrounding vehicles, especially prevalent in traffic intersection scenarios. We evaluate our algorithm along axes of mobility, comfort, conservatism and computational efficiency at a simulated intersection in CARLA. Our simulations use a kinematic bicycle model and multimodal predictions trained on a subset of the Lyft Level 5 prediction dataset. To demonstrate the impact of optimizing over feedback policies, we compare our algorithm with two SMPC baselines that handle multi-modal collision avoidance chance constraints by optimizing over open-loop sequences.
相關內容
We present an algorithm, based on the Differential Dynamic Programming framework, to handle trajectory optimization problems in which the horizon is determined online rather than fixed a priori. This algorithm exhibits exact one-step convergence for linear, quadratic, time-invariant problems and is fast enough for real-time nonlinear model-predictive control. We show derivations for the nonlinear algorithm in the discrete-time case, and apply this algorithm to a variety of nonlinear problems. Finally, we show the efficacy of the optimal-horizon model-predictive control scheme compared to a standard MPC controller, on an obstacle-avoidance problem with planar robots.
Movement specific vehicle classification and counting at traffic intersections is a crucial component for various traffic management activities. In this context, with recent advancements in computer-vision based techniques, cameras have emerged as a reliable data source for extracting vehicular trajectories from traffic scenes. However, classifying these trajectories by movement type is quite challenging as characteristics of motion trajectories obtained this way vary depending on camera calibrations. Although some existing methods have addressed such classification tasks with decent accuracies, the performance of these methods significantly relied on manual specification of several regions of interest. In this study, we proposed an automated classification method for movement specific classification (such as right-turn, left-turn and through movements) of vision-based vehicle trajectories. Our classification framework identifies different movement patterns observed in a traffic scene using an unsupervised hierarchical clustering technique Thereafter a similarity-based assignment strategy is adopted to assign incoming vehicle trajectories to identified movement groups. A new similarity measure was designed to overcome the inherent shortcomings of vision-based trajectories. Experimental results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed classification approach and its ability to adapt to different traffic scenarios without any manual intervention.
Accurate trajectory prediction of vehicles is essential for reliable autonomous driving. To maintain consistent performance as a vehicle driving around different cities, it is crucial to adapt to changing traffic circumstances and achieve lifelong trajectory prediction model. To realize it, catastrophic forgetting is a main problem to be addressed. In this paper, a divergence measurement method based on conditional Kullback-Leibler divergence is proposed first to evaluate spatiotemporal dependency difference among varied driving circumstances. Then based on generative replay, a novel lifelong vehicle trajectory prediction framework is developed. The framework consists of a conditional generation model and a vehicle trajectory prediction model. The conditional generation model is a generative adversarial network conditioned on position configuration of vehicles. After learning and merging trajectory distribution of vehicles across different cities, the generation model replays trajectories with prior samplings as inputs, which alleviates catastrophic forgetting. The vehicle trajectory prediction model is trained by the replayed trajectories and achieves consistent prediction performance on visited cities. A lifelong experiment setup is established on four open datasets including five tasks. Spatiotemporal dependency divergence is calculated for different tasks. Even though these divergence, the proposed framework exhibits lifelong learning ability and achieves consistent performance on all tasks.
Behavior prediction remains one of the most challenging tasks in the autonomous vehicle (AV) software stack. Forecasting the future trajectories of nearby agents plays a critical role in ensuring road safety, as it equips AVs with the necessary information to plan safe routes of travel. However, these prediction models are data-driven and trained on data collected in real life that may not represent the full range of scenarios an AV can encounter. Hence, it is important that these prediction models are extensively tested in various test scenarios involving interactive behaviors prior to deployment. To support this need, we present a simulation-based testing platform which supports (1) intuitive scenario modeling with a probabilistic programming language called Scenic, (2) specifying a multi-objective evaluation metric with a partial priority ordering, (3) falsification of the provided metric, and (4) parallelization of simulations for scalable testing. As a part of the platform, we provide a library of 25 Scenic programs that model challenging test scenarios involving interactive traffic participant behaviors. We demonstrate the effectiveness and the scalability of our platform by testing a trained behavior prediction model and searching for failure scenarios.
Cooperative driving relies on communication among vehicles to create situational awareness. One application of cooperative driving is Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) that aims at enhancing highway transportation safety and capacity. Model-based communication (MBC) is a new paradigm with a flexible content structure for broadcasting joint vehicle-driver predictive behavioral models. The vehicle's complex dynamics and diverse driving behaviors add complexity to the modeling process. Gaussian process (GP) is a fully data-driven and non-parametric Bayesian modeling approach which can be used as a modeling component of MBC. The knowledge about the uncertainty is propagated through predictions by generating local GPs for vehicles and broadcasting their hyper-parameters as a model to the neighboring vehicles. In this research study, GP is used to model each vehicle's speed trajectory, which allows vehicles to access the future behavior of their preceding vehicle during communication loss and/or low-rate communication. Besides, to overcome the safety issues in a vehicle platoon, two operating modes for each vehicle are considered; free following and emergency braking. This paper presents a discrete hybrid stochastic model predictive control, which incorporates system modes as well as uncertainties captured by GP models. The proposed control design approach finds the optimal vehicle speed trajectory with the goal of achieving a safe and efficient platoon of vehicles with small inter-vehicle gap while reducing the reliance of the vehicles on a frequent communication. Simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed controller considering the aforementioned communication paradigm with low-rate intermittent communication.
Autonomous driving consists of a multitude of interacting modules, where each module must contend with errors from the others. Typically, the motion prediction module depends upon a robust tracking system to capture each agent's past movement. In this work, we systematically explore the importance of the tracking module for the motion prediction task and ultimately conclude that the overall motion prediction performance is highly sensitive to the tracking module's imperfections. We explicitly compare models that use tracking information to models that do not across multiple scenarios and conditions. We find that the tracking information plays an essential role and improves motion prediction performance in noise-free conditions. However, in the presence of tracking noise, it can potentially affect the overall performance if not studied thoroughly. We thus argue practitioners should be mindful of noise when developing and testing motion/tracking modules, or that they should consider tracking free alternatives.
While supervised learning has enabled great progress in many applications, unsupervised learning has not seen such widespread adoption, and remains an important and challenging endeavor for artificial intelligence. In this work, we propose a universal unsupervised learning approach to extract useful representations from high-dimensional data, which we call Contrastive Predictive Coding. The key insight of our model is to learn such representations by predicting the future in latent space by using powerful autoregressive models. We use a probabilistic contrastive loss which induces the latent space to capture information that is maximally useful to predict future samples. It also makes the model tractable by using negative sampling. While most prior work has focused on evaluating representations for a particular modality, we demonstrate that our approach is able to learn useful representations achieving strong performance on four distinct domains: speech, images, text and reinforcement learning in 3D environments.
In this paper, a novel image moments based model for shape estimation and tracking of an object moving with a complex trajectory is presented. The camera is assumed to be stationary looking at a moving object. Point features inside the object are sampled as measurements. An ellipsoidal approximation of the shape is assumed as a primitive shape. The shape of an ellipse is estimated using a combination of image moments. Dynamic model of image moments when the object moves under the constant velocity or coordinated turn motion model is derived as a function for the shape estimation of the object. An Unscented Kalman Filter-Interacting Multiple Model (UKF-IMM) filter algorithm is applied to estimate the shape of the object (approximated as an ellipse) and track its position and velocity. A likelihood function based on average log-likelihood is derived for the IMM filter. Simulation results of the proposed UKF-IMM algorithm with the image moments based models are presented that show the estimations of the shape of the object moving in complex trajectories. Comparison results, using intersection over union (IOU), and position and velocity root mean square errors (RMSE) as metrics, with a benchmark algorithm from literature are presented. Results on real image data captured from the quadcopter are also presented.
Many recommendation algorithms rely on user data to generate recommendations. However, these recommendations also affect the data obtained from future users. This work aims to understand the effects of this dynamic interaction. We propose a simple model where users with heterogeneous preferences arrive over time. Based on this model, we prove that naive estimators, i.e. those which ignore this feedback loop, are not consistent. We show that consistent estimators are efficient in the presence of myopic agents. Our results are validated using extensive simulations.
Owing to the recent advances in "Big Data" modeling and prediction tasks, variational Bayesian estimation has gained popularity due to their ability to provide exact solutions to approximate posteriors. One key technique for approximate inference is stochastic variational inference (SVI). SVI poses variational inference as a stochastic optimization problem and solves it iteratively using noisy gradient estimates. It aims to handle massive data for predictive and classification tasks by applying complex Bayesian models that have observed as well as latent variables. This paper aims to decentralize it allowing parallel computation, secure learning and robustness benefits. We use Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers in a top-down setting to develop a distributed SVI algorithm such that independent learners running inference algorithms only require sharing the estimated model parameters instead of their private datasets. Our work extends the distributed SVI-ADMM algorithm that we first propose, to an ADMM-based networked SVI algorithm in which not only are the learners working distributively but they share information according to rules of a graph by which they form a network. This kind of work lies under the umbrella of `deep learning over networks' and we verify our algorithm for a topic-modeling problem for corpus of Wikipedia articles. We illustrate the results on latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) topic model in large document classification, compare performance with the centralized algorithm, and use numerical experiments to corroborate the analytical results.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191