A significant body of research in the data sciences considers unfair discrimination against social categories such as race or gender that could occur or be amplified as a result of algorithmic decisions. Simultaneously, real-world disparities continue to exist, even before algorithmic decisions are made. In this work, we draw on insights from the social sciences brought into the realm of causal modeling and constrained optimization, and develop a novel algorithmic framework for tackling pre-existing real-world disparities. The purpose of our framework, which we call the "impact remediation framework," is to measure real-world disparities and discover the optimal intervention policies that could help improve equity or access to opportunity for those who are underserved with respect to an outcome of interest. We develop a disaggregated approach to tackling pre-existing disparities that relaxes the typical set of assumptions required for the use of social categories in structural causal models. Our approach flexibly incorporates counterfactuals and is compatible with various ontological assumptions about the nature of social categories. We demonstrate impact remediation with a hypothetical case study and compare our disaggregated approach to an existing state-of-the-art approach, comparing its structure and resulting policy recommendations. In contrast to most work on optimal policy learning, we explore disparity reduction itself as an objective, explicitly focusing the power of algorithms on reducing inequality.
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Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is a set of techniques that allows the understanding of both technical and non-technical aspects of Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems. XAI is crucial to help satisfying the increasingly important demand of \emph{trustworthy} Artificial Intelligence, characterized by fundamental characteristics such as respect of human autonomy, prevention of harm, transparency, accountability, etc. Within XAI techniques, counterfactual explanations aim to provide to end users a set of features (and their corresponding values) that need to be changed in order to achieve a desired outcome. Current approaches rarely take into account the feasibility of actions needed to achieve the proposed explanations, and in particular they fall short of considering the causal impact of such actions. In this paper, we present Counterfactual Explanations as Interventions in Latent Space (CEILS), a methodology to generate counterfactual explanations capturing by design the underlying causal relations from the data, and at the same time to provide feasible recommendations to reach the proposed profile. Moreover, our methodology has the advantage that it can be set on top of existing counterfactuals generator algorithms, thus minimising the complexity of imposing additional causal constrains. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach with a set of different experiments using synthetic and real datasets (including a proprietary dataset of the financial domain).
In this paper we investigate the flexibility of matrix distributions for the modeling of mortality. Starting from a simple Gompertz law, we show how the introduction of matrix-valued parameters via inhomogeneous phase-type distributions can lead to reasonably accurate and relatively parsimonious models for mortality curves across the entire lifespan. A particular feature of the proposed model framework is that it allows for a more direct interpretation of the implied underlying aging process than some previous approaches. Subsequently, towards applications of the approach for multi-population mortality modeling, we introduce regression via the concept of proportional intensities, which are more flexible than proportional hazard models, and we show that the two classes are asymptotically equivalent. We illustrate how the model parameters can be estimated from data by providing an adapted EM algorithm for which the likelihood increases at each iteration. The practical feasibility and competitiveness of the proposed approach are illustrated for several sets of mortality data.
Online extremism is a growing and pernicious problem, and increasingly linked to real-world violence. We introduce a new resource to help research and understand it: ExtremeBB is a structured textual dataset containing nearly 44M posts made by more than 300K registered members on 12 different online extremist forums, enabling both qualitative and quantitative large-scale analyses of historical trends going back two decades. It enables us to trace the evolution of different strands of extremist ideology; to measure levels of toxicity while exploring and developing the tools to do so better; to track the relationships between online subcultures and external political movements such as MAGA and to explore links with misogyny and violence, including radicalisation and recruitment. To illustrate a few potential uses, we apply statistical and data-mining techniques to analyse the online extremist landscape in a variety of ways, from posting patterns through topic modelling to toxicity and the membership overlap across different communities. A picture emerges of communities working as support networks, with complex discussions over a wide variety of topics. The discussions of many topics show a level of disagreement which challenges the perception of homogeneity among these groups. These two features of mutual support and a wide range of attitudes lead us to suggest a more nuanced policy approach than simply shutting down these websites. Censorship might remove the support that lonely and troubled individuals are receiving, and fuel paranoid perceptions that the world is against them, though this must be balanced with other benefits of de-platforming. ExtremeBB can help develop a better understanding of these sub-cultures which may lead to more effective interventions; it also opens up the prospect of research to monitor the effectiveness of any interventions that are undertaken.
Increasing urbanization and exacerbation of sustainability goals threaten the operational efficiency of current transportation systems and confront cities with complex choices with huge impact on future generations. At the same time, the rise of private, profit-maximizing Mobility Service Providers leveraging public resources, such as ride-hailing companies, entangles current regulation schemes. This calls for tools to study such complex socio-technical problems. In this paper, we provide a game-theoretic framework to study interactions between stakeholders of the mobility ecosystem, modeling regulatory aspects such as taxes and public transport prices, as well as operational matters for Mobility Service Providers such as pricing strategy, fleet sizing, and vehicle design. Our framework is modular and can readily accommodate different types of Mobility Service Providers, actions of municipalities, and low-level models of customers choices in the mobility system. Through both an analytical and a numerical case study for the city of Berlin, Germany, we showcase the ability of our framework to compute equilibria of the problem, to study fundamental tradeoffs, and to inform stakeholders and policy makers on the effects of interventions. Among others, we show tradeoffs between customers satisfaction, environmental impact, and public revenue, as well as the impact of strategic decisions on these metrics.
The inverse probability weighting approach is popular for evaluating treatment effects in observational studies, but extreme propensity scores could bias the estimator and induce excessive variance. Recently, the overlap weighting approach has been proposed to alleviate this problem, which smoothly down-weighs the subjects with extreme propensity scores. Although advantages of overlap weighting have been extensively demonstrated in literature with continuous and binary outcomes, research on its performance with time-to-event or survival outcomes is limited. In this article, we propose two weighting estimators that combine propensity score weighting and inverse probability of censoring weighting to estimate the counterfactual survival functions. These estimators are applicable to the general class of balancing weights, which includes inverse probability weighting, trimming, and overlap weighting as special cases. We conduct simulations to examine the empirical performance of these estimators with different weighting schemes in terms of bias, variance, and 95% confidence interval coverage, under various degree of covariate overlap between treatment groups and censoring rate. We demonstrate that overlap weighting consistently outperforms inverse probability weighting and associated trimming methods in bias, variance, and coverage for time-to-event outcomes, and the advantages increase as the degree of covariate overlap between the treatment groups decreases.
We introduce a novel edge tracing algorithm using Gaussian process regression. Our edge-based segmentation algorithm models an edge of interest using Gaussian process regression and iteratively searches the image for edge pixels in a recursive Bayesian scheme. This procedure combines local edge information from the image gradient and global structural information from posterior curves, sampled from the model's posterior predictive distribution, to sequentially build and refine an observation set of edge pixels. This accumulation of pixels converges the distribution to the edge of interest. Hyperparameters can be tuned by the user at initialisation and optimised given the refined observation set. This tunable approach does not require any prior training and is not restricted to any particular type of imaging domain. Due to the model's uncertainty quantification, the algorithm is robust to artefacts and occlusions which degrade the quality and continuity of edges in images. Our approach also has the ability to efficiently trace edges in image sequences by using previous-image edge traces as a priori information for consecutive images. Various applications to medical imaging and satellite imaging are used to validate the technique and comparisons are made with two commonly used edge tracing algorithms.
Perturb-and-MAP offers an elegant approach to approximately sample from a energy-based model (EBM) by computing the maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) configuration of a perturbed version of the model. Sampling in turn enables learning. However, this line of research has been hindered by the general intractability of the MAP computation. Very few works venture outside tractable models, and when they do, they use linear programming approaches, which as we will show, have several limitations. In this work we present perturb-and-max-product (PMP), a parallel and scalable mechanism for sampling and learning in discrete EBMs. Models can be arbitrary as long as they are built using tractable factors. We show that (a) for Ising models, PMP is orders of magnitude faster than Gibbs and Gibbs-with-Gradients (GWG) at learning and generating samples of similar or better quality; (b) PMP is able to learn and sample from RBMs; (c) in a large, entangled graphical model in which Gibbs and GWG fail to mix, PMP succeeds.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Predictive models can fail to generalize from training to deployment environments because of dataset shift, posing a threat to model reliability and the safety of downstream decisions made in practice. Instead of using samples from the target distribution to reactively correct dataset shift, we use graphical knowledge of the causal mechanisms relating variables in a prediction problem to proactively remove relationships that do not generalize across environments, even when these relationships may depend on unobserved variables (violations of the "no unobserved confounders" assumption). To accomplish this, we identify variables with unstable paths of statistical influence and remove them from the model. We also augment the causal graph with latent counterfactual variables that isolate unstable paths of statistical influence, allowing us to retain stable paths that would otherwise be removed. Our experiments demonstrate that models that remove vulnerable variables and use estimates of the latent variables transfer better, often outperforming in the target domain despite some accuracy loss in the training domain.
A popular recent approach to answering open-domain questions is to first search for question-related passages and then apply reading comprehension models to extract answers. Existing methods usually extract answers from single passages independently. But some questions require a combination of evidence from across different sources to answer correctly. In this paper, we propose two models which make use of multiple passages to generate their answers. Both use an answer-reranking approach which reorders the answer candidates generated by an existing state-of-the-art QA model. We propose two methods, namely, strength-based re-ranking and coverage-based re-ranking, to make use of the aggregated evidence from different passages to better determine the answer. Our models have achieved state-of-the-art results on three public open-domain QA datasets: Quasar-T, SearchQA and the open-domain version of TriviaQA, with about 8 percentage points of improvement over the former two datasets.
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