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State-of-the-art machine learning models often learn spurious correlations embedded in the training data. This poses risks when deploying these models for high-stake decision-making, such as in medical applications like skin cancer detection. To tackle this problem, we propose Reveal to Revise (R2R), a framework entailing the entire eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) life cycle, enabling practitioners to iteratively identify, mitigate, and (re-)evaluate spurious model behavior with a minimal amount of human interaction. In the first step (1), R2R reveals model weaknesses by finding outliers in attributions or through inspection of latent concepts learned by the model. Secondly (2), the responsible artifacts are detected and spatially localized in the input data, which is then leveraged to (3) revise the model behavior. Concretely, we apply the methods of RRR, CDEP and ClArC for model correction, and (4) (re-)evaluate the model's performance and remaining sensitivity towards the artifact. Using two medical benchmark datasets for Melanoma detection and bone age estimation, we apply our R2R framework to VGG, ResNet and EfficientNet architectures and thereby reveal and correct real dataset-intrinsic artifacts, as well as synthetic variants in a controlled setting. Completing the XAI life cycle, we demonstrate multiple R2R iterations to mitigate different biases. Code is available on //github.com/maxdreyer/Reveal2Revise.

Understanding dynamics in complex systems is challenging because there are many degrees of freedom, and those that are most important for describing events of interest are often not obvious. The leading eigenfunctions of the transition operator are useful for visualization, and they can provide an efficient basis for computing statistics such as the likelihood and average time of events (predictions). Here we develop inexact iterative linear algebra methods for computing these eigenfunctions (spectral estimation) and making predictions from a data set of short trajectories sampled at finite intervals. We demonstrate the methods on a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization and a high-dimensional model of a biomolecular system. Implications for the prediction problem in reinforcement learning are discussed.

Counterfactual fairness is an approach to AI fairness that tries to make decisions based on the outcomes that an individual with some kind of sensitive status would have had without this status. This paper proposes Double Machine Learning (DML) Fairness which analogises this problem of counterfactual fairness in regression problems to that of estimating counterfactual outcomes in causal inference under the Potential Outcomes framework. It uses arbitrary machine learning methods to partial out the effect of sensitive variables on nonsensitive variables and outcomes. Assuming that the effects of the two sets of variables are additively separable, outcomes will be approximately equalised and individual-level outcomes will be counterfactually fair. This paper demonstrates the approach in a simulation study pertaining to discrimination in workplace hiring and an application on real data estimating the GPAs of law school students. It then discusses when it is appropriate to apply such a method to problems of real-world discrimination where constructs are conceptually complex and finally, whether DML Fairness can achieve justice in these settings.

The question of what makes a data distribution suitable for deep learning is a fundamental open problem. Focusing on locally connected neural networks (a prevalent family of architectures that includes convolutional and recurrent neural networks as well as local self-attention models), we address this problem by adopting theoretical tools from quantum physics. Our main theoretical result states that a certain locally connected neural network is capable of accurate prediction over a data distribution if and only if the data distribution admits low quantum entanglement under certain canonical partitions of features. As a practical application of this result, we derive a preprocessing method for enhancing the suitability of a data distribution to locally connected neural networks. Experiments with widespread models over various datasets demonstrate our findings. We hope that our use of quantum entanglement will encourage further adoption of tools from physics for formally reasoning about the relation between deep learning and real-world data.

Likelihood-based inferences have been remarkably successful in wide-spanning application areas. However, even after due diligence in selecting a good model for the data at hand, there is inevitably some amount of model misspecification: outliers, data contamination or inappropriate parametric assumptions such as Gaussianity mean that most models are at best rough approximations of reality. A significant practical concern is that for certain inferences, even small amounts of model misspecification may have a substantial impact; a problem we refer to as brittleness. This article attempts to address the brittleness problem in likelihood-based inferences by choosing the most model friendly data generating process in a discrepancy-based neighbourhood of the empirical measure. This leads to a new Optimistically Weighted Likelihood (OWL), which robustifies the original likelihood by formally accounting for a small amount of model misspecification. Focusing on total variation (TV) neighborhoods, we study theoretical properties, develop inference algorithms and illustrate the methodology in applications to mixture models and regression.

Large-scale dynamics of the oceans and the atmosphere are governed by primitive equations (PEs). Due to the nonlinearity and nonlocality, the numerical study of the PEs is generally challenging. Neural networks have been shown to be a promising machine learning tool to tackle this challenge. In this work, we employ physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to approximate the solutions to the PEs and study the error estimates. We first establish the higher-order regularity for the global solutions to the PEs with either full viscosity and diffusivity, or with only the horizontal ones. Such a result for the case with only the horizontal ones is new and required in the analysis under the PINNs framework. Then we prove the existence of two-layer tanh PINNs of which the corresponding training error can be arbitrarily small by taking the width of PINNs to be sufficiently wide, and the error between the true solution and its approximation can be arbitrarily small provided that the training error is small enough and the sample set is large enough. In particular, all the estimates are a priori, and our analysis includes higher-order (in spatial Sobolev norm) error estimates. Numerical results on prototype systems are presented to further illustrate the advantage of using the $H^s$ norm during the training.

Learning precise surrogate models of complex computer simulations and physical machines often require long-lasting or expensive experiments. Furthermore, the modeled physical dependencies exhibit nonlinear and nonstationary behavior. Machine learning methods that are used to produce the surrogate model should therefore address these problems by providing a scheme to keep the number of queries small, e.g. by using active learning and be able to capture the nonlinear and nonstationary properties of the system. One way of modeling the nonstationarity is to induce input-partitioning, a principle that has proven to be advantageous in active learning for Gaussian processes. However, these methods either assume a known partitioning, need to introduce complex sampling schemes or rely on very simple geometries. In this work, we present a simple, yet powerful kernel family that incorporates a partitioning that: i) is learnable via gradient-based methods, ii) uses a geometry that is more flexible than previous ones, while still being applicable in the low data regime. Thus, it provides a good prior for active learning procedures. We empirically demonstrate excellent performance on various active learning tasks.

An instrumental variable (IV) is a device that encourages units in a study to be exposed to a treatment. Under a set of key assumptions, a valid instrument allows for consistent estimation of treatment effects for compliers (those who are only exposed to treatment when encouraged to do so) even in the presence of unobserved confounders. Unfortunately, popular IV estimators can be unstable in studies with a small fraction of compliers. Here, we explore post-stratifying the data using variables that predict complier status (and, potentially, the outcome) to yield better estimation and inferential properties. We outline an estimator that is a weighted average of IV estimates within each stratum, weighing the stratum estimates by their estimated proportion of compliers. We then explore the benefits of post-stratification in terms of bias reduction, variance reduction, and improved standard error estimates, providing derivations that identify the direction of bias as a function of the relative means of the compliers and non-compliers. We also provide a finite-sample asymptotic formula for the variance of the post-stratified estimators. We demonstrate the relative performances of different IV approaches in simulations studies and discuss the advantages of our design-based post-stratification approach over incorporating compliance-predictive covariates into two-stage least squares regressions. In the end, we show covariates predictive of outcome can increase precision, but only if one is willing to make a bias-variance trade-off by down-weighting or dropping those strata with few compliers. Our methods are further exemplified in an application.

There is an increasing supply and demand for political advertising throughout the world. At the same time, societal threats, such election interference by foreign governments and other bad actors, continues to be a pressing concern in many democracies. Furthermore, manipulation of electoral outcomes, whether by foreign or domestic forces, continues to be a concern of many citizens who are also worried about their fundamental rights. To these ends, the European Union (EU) has launched several initiatives for tackling the issues. A new regulation was proposed in 2020 also for improving the transparency of political advertising in the union. This short commentary reviews the regulation and raises a few points about its limitations and potential impacts.

Autonomous driving has achieved a significant milestone in research and development over the last decade. There is increasing interest in the field as the deployment of self-operating vehicles on roads promises safer and more ecologically friendly transportation systems. With the rise of computationally powerful artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, autonomous vehicles can sense their environment with high precision, make safe real-time decisions, and operate more reliably without human interventions. However, intelligent decision-making in autonomous cars is not generally understandable by humans in the current state of the art, and such deficiency hinders this technology from being socially acceptable. Hence, aside from making safe real-time decisions, the AI systems of autonomous vehicles also need to explain how these decisions are constructed in order to be regulatory compliant across many jurisdictions. Our study sheds a comprehensive light on developing explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approaches for autonomous vehicles. In particular, we make the following contributions. First, we provide a thorough overview of the present gaps with respect to explanations in the state-of-the-art autonomous vehicle industry. We then show the taxonomy of explanations and explanation receivers in this field. Thirdly, we propose a framework for an architecture of end-to-end autonomous driving systems and justify the role of XAI in both debugging and regulating such systems. Finally, as future research directions, we provide a field guide on XAI approaches for autonomous driving that can improve operational safety and transparency towards achieving public approval by regulators, manufacturers, and all engaged stakeholders.