With the ever growing importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of complex model evaluations and the difficulty of their timely realizations comes a need for more efficient numerical operations. Non-intrusive Polynomial Chaos methods are highly efficient and accurate to map input-output relationships to investigate complex models. There is a lot of potential to increase the efficacy of the method regarding the selected sampling scheme. We examined state-of-the-art sampling schemes categorized in space-filling-optimal designs such as Latin Hypercube sampling and L1 optimal sampling and compare their empirical performance against standard random sampling. The analysis was performed in the context of L1 minimization using the least-angle regression algorithm to fit the gPC regression models. The sampling schemes are thoroughly investigated by evaluating the quality of the constructed surrogate models considering distinct test cases representing different problem classes covering low, medium and high dimensional problems. Finally, the samplings schemes are tested on an application example to estimate the sensitivity of the self-impedance of a probe, which is used to measure the impedance of biological tissues at different frequencies. Due to the random nature, we compared the sampling schemes using statistical stability measures and evaluated the success rates to construct a surrogate model with an accuracy of <0.1%. We observed strong differences in the convergence properties of the methods between the analyzed test functions.
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In this paper, we study learning in probabilistic domains where the learner may receive incorrect labels but can improve the reliability of labels by repeatedly sampling them. In such a setting, one faces the problem of whether the fixed budget for obtaining training examples should rather be used for obtaining all different examples or for improving the label quality of a smaller number of examples by re-sampling their labels. We motivate this problem in an application to compare the strength of poker hands where the training signal depends on the hidden community cards, and then study it in depth in an artificial setting where we insert controlled noise levels into the MNIST database. Our results show that with increasing levels of noise, resampling previous examples becomes increasingly more important than obtaining new examples, as classifier performance deteriorates when the number of incorrect labels is too high. In addition, we propose two different validation strategies; switching from lower to higher validations over the course of training and using chi-square statistics to approximate the confidence in obtained labels.
Common tasks encountered in epidemiology, including disease incidence estimation and causal inference, rely on predictive modeling. Constructing a predictive model can be thought of as learning a prediction function, i.e., a function that takes as input covariate data and outputs a predicted value. Many strategies for learning these functions from data are available, from parametric regressions to machine learning algorithms. It can be challenging to choose an approach, as it is impossible to know in advance which one is the most suitable for a particular dataset and prediction task at hand. The super learner (SL) is an algorithm that alleviates concerns over selecting the one "right" strategy while providing the freedom to consider many of them, such as those recommended by collaborators, used in related research, or specified by subject-matter experts. It is an entirely pre-specified and data-adaptive strategy for predictive modeling. To ensure the SL is well-specified for learning the prediction function, the analyst does need to make a few important choices. In this Education Corner article, we provide step-by-step guidelines for making these choices, walking the reader through each of them and providing intuition along the way. In doing so, we aim to empower the analyst to tailor the SL specification to their prediction task, thereby ensuring their SL performs as well as possible. A flowchart provides a concise, easy-to-follow summary of key suggestions and heuristics, based on our accumulated experience, and guided by theory.
We employ kernel-based approaches that use samples from a probability distribution to approximate a Kolmogorov operator on a manifold. The self-tuning variable-bandwidth kernel method [Berry & Harlim, Appl. Comput. Harmon. Anal., 40(1):68--96, 2016] computes a large, sparse matrix that approximates the differential operator. Here, we use the eigendecomposition of the discretization to (i) invert the operator, solving a differential equation, and (ii) represent gradient vector fields on the manifold. These methods only require samples from the underlying distribution and, therefore, can be applied in high dimensions or on geometrically complex manifolds when spatial discretizations are not available. We also employ an efficient $k$-$d$ tree algorithm to compute the sparse kernel matrix, which is a computational bottleneck.
In the realm of unsupervised learning, Bayesian nonparametric mixture models, exemplified by the Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM), provide a principled approach for adapting the complexity of the model to the data. Such models are particularly useful in clustering tasks where the number of clusters is unknown. Despite their potential and mathematical elegance, however, DPMMs have yet to become a mainstream tool widely adopted by practitioners. This is arguably due to a misconception that these models scale poorly as well as the lack of high-performance (and user-friendly) software tools that can handle large datasets efficiently. In this paper we bridge this practical gap by proposing a new, easy-to-use, statistical software package for scalable DPMM inference. More concretely, we provide efficient and easily-modifiable implementations for high-performance distributed sampling-based inference in DPMMs where the user is free to choose between either a multiple-machine, multiple-core, CPU implementation (written in Julia) and a multiple-stream GPU implementation (written in CUDA/C++). Both the CPU and GPU implementations come with a common (and optional) python wrapper, providing the user with a single point of entry with the same interface. On the algorithmic side, our implementations leverage a leading DPMM sampler from (Chang and Fisher III, 2013). While Chang and Fisher III's implementation (written in MATLAB/C++) used only CPU and was designed for a single multi-core machine, the packages we proposed here distribute the computations efficiently across either multiple multi-core machines or across mutiple GPU streams. This leads to speedups, alleviates memory and storage limitations, and lets us fit DPMMs to significantly larger datasets and of higher dimensionality than was possible previously by either (Chang and Fisher III, 2013) or other DPMM methods.
Due to the high human cost of annotation, it is non-trivial to curate a large-scale medical dataset that is fully labeled for all classes of interest. Instead, it would be convenient to collect multiple small partially labeled datasets from different matching sources, where the medical images may have only been annotated for a subset of classes of interest. This paper offers an empirical understanding of an under-explored problem, namely partially supervised multi-label classification (PSMLC), where a multi-label classifier is trained with only partially labeled medical images. In contrast to the fully supervised counterpart, the partial supervision caused by medical data scarcity has non-trivial negative impacts on the model performance. A potential remedy could be augmenting the partial labels. Though vicinal risk minimization (VRM) has been a promising solution to improve the generalization ability of the model, its application to PSMLC remains an open question. To bridge the methodological gap, we provide the first VRM-based solution to PSMLC. The empirical results also provide insights into future research directions on partially supervised learning under data scarcity.
Machine learning and computational intelligence technologies gain more and more popularity as possible solution for issues related to the power grid. One of these issues, the power flow calculation, is an iterative method to compute the voltage magnitudes of the power grid's buses from power values. Machine learning and, especially, artificial neural networks were successfully used as surrogates for the power flow calculation. Artificial neural networks highly rely on the quality and size of the training data, but this aspect of the process is apparently often neglected in the works we found. However, since the availability of high quality historical data for power grids is limited, we propose the Correlation Sampling algorithm. We show that this approach is able to cover a larger area of the sampling space compared to different random sampling algorithms from the literature and a copula-based approach, while at the same time inter-dependencies of the inputs are taken into account, which, from the other algorithms, only the copula-based approach does.
As the next-generation wireless networks thrive, full-duplex and relaying techniques are combined to improve the network performance. Random linear network coding (RLNC) is another popular technique to enhance the efficiency and reliability in wireless communications. In this paper, in order to explore the potential of RLNC in full-duplex relay networks, we investigate two fundamental perfect RLNC schemes and theoretically analyze their completion delay performance. The first scheme is a straightforward application of conventional perfect RLNC studied in wireless broadcast, so it involves no additional process at the relay. Its performance serves as an upper bound among all perfect RLNC schemes. The other scheme allows sufficiently large buffer and unconstrained linear coding at the relay. It attains the optimal performance and serves as a lower bound among all RLNC schemes. For both schemes, closed-form formulae to characterize the expected completion delay at a single receiver as well as for the whole system are derived. Numerical results are also demonstrated to justify the theoretical characterizations, and compare the two new schemes with the existing one.
Augmentation Invariance and Adaptive Sampling in Semantic Segmentation of Agricultural Aerial Images
In this paper, we investigate the problem of Semantic Segmentation for agricultural aerial imagery. We observe that the existing methods used for this task are designed without considering two characteristics of the aerial data: (i) the top-down perspective implies that the model cannot rely on a fixed semantic structure of the scene, because the same scene may be experienced with different rotations of the sensor; (ii) there can be a strong imbalance in the distribution of semantic classes because the relevant objects of the scene may appear at extremely different scales (e.g., a field of crops and a small vehicle). We propose a solution to these problems based on two ideas: (i) we use together a set of suitable augmentation and a consistency loss to guide the model to learn semantic representations that are invariant to the photometric and geometric shifts typical of the top-down perspective (Augmentation Invariance); (ii) we use a sampling method (Adaptive Sampling) that selects the training images based on a measure of pixel-wise distribution of classes and actual network confidence. With an extensive set of experiments conducted on the Agriculture-Vision dataset, we demonstrate that our proposed strategies improve the performance of the current state-of-the-art method.
Statistical-Computational Trade-offs in Tensor PCA and Related Problems via Communication Complexity
Tensor PCA is a stylized statistical inference problem introduced by Montanari and Richard to study the computational difficulty of estimating an unknown parameter from higher-order moment tensors. Unlike its matrix counterpart, Tensor PCA exhibits a statistical-computational gap, i.e., a sample size regime where the problem is information-theoretically solvable but conjectured to be computationally hard. This paper derives computational lower bounds on the run-time of memory bounded algorithms for Tensor PCA using communication complexity. These lower bounds specify a trade-off among the number of passes through the data sample, the sample size, and the memory required by any algorithm that successfully solves Tensor PCA. While the lower bounds do not rule out polynomial-time algorithms, they do imply that many commonly-used algorithms, such as gradient descent and power method, must have a higher iteration count when the sample size is not large enough. Similar lower bounds are obtained for Non-Gaussian Component Analysis, a family of statistical estimation problems in which low-order moment tensors carry no information about the unknown parameter. Finally, stronger lower bounds are obtained for an asymmetric variant of Tensor PCA and related statistical estimation problems. These results explain why many estimators for these problems use a memory state that is significantly larger than the effective dimensionality of the parameter of interest.
Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal likelihood (model evidence), which is computationally challenging, prohibiting its use in many high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. With Bayesian imaging applications in mind, in this work we present the proximal nested sampling methodology to objectively compare alternative Bayesian imaging models for applications that use images to inform decisions under uncertainty. The methodology is based on nested sampling, a Monte Carlo approach specialised for model comparison, and exploits proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to scale efficiently to large problems and to tackle models that are log-concave and not necessarily smooth (e.g., involving l_1 or total-variation priors). The proposed approach can be applied computationally to problems of dimension O(10^6) and beyond, making it suitable for high-dimensional inverse imaging problems. It is validated on large Gaussian models, for which the likelihood is available analytically, and subsequently illustrated on a range of imaging problems where it is used to analyse different choices of dictionary and measurement model.
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