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Membership inference attacks are designed to determine, using black box access to trained models, whether a particular example was used in training or not. Membership inference can be formalized as a hypothesis testing problem. The most effective existing attacks estimate the distribution of some test statistic (usually the model's confidence on the true label) on points that were (and were not) used in training by training many \emph{shadow models} -- i.e. models of the same architecture as the model being attacked, trained on a random subsample of data. While effective, these attacks are extremely computationally expensive, especially when the model under attack is large. We introduce a new class of attacks based on performing quantile regression on the distribution of confidence scores induced by the model under attack on points that are not used in training. We show that our method is competitive with state-of-the-art shadow model attacks, while requiring substantially less compute because our attack requires training only a single model. Moreover, unlike shadow model attacks, our proposed attack does not require any knowledge of the architecture of the model under attack and is therefore truly ``black-box". We show the efficacy of this approach in an extensive series of experiments on various datasets and model architectures.

Batch active learning is a popular approach for efficiently training machine learning models on large, initially unlabelled datasets by repeatedly acquiring labels for batches of data points. However, many recent batch active learning methods are white-box approaches and are often limited to differentiable parametric models: they score unlabeled points using acquisition functions based on model embeddings or first- and second-order derivatives. In this paper, we propose black-box batch active learning for regression tasks as an extension of white-box approaches. Crucially, our method only relies on model predictions. This approach is compatible with a wide range of machine learning models, including regular and Bayesian deep learning models and non-differentiable models such as random forests. It is rooted in Bayesian principles and utilizes recent kernel-based approaches. This allows us to extend a wide range of existing state-of-the-art white-box batch active learning methods (BADGE, BAIT, LCMD) to black-box models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through extensive experimental evaluations on regression datasets, achieving surprisingly strong performance compared to white-box approaches for deep learning models.

Car-following behavior modeling is critical for understanding traffic flow dynamics and developing high-fidelity microscopic simulation models. Most existing impulse-response car-following models prioritize computational efficiency and interpretability by using a parsimonious nonlinear function based on immediate preceding state observations. However, this approach disregards historical information, limiting its ability to explain real-world driving data. Consequently, serially correlated residuals are commonly observed when calibrating these models with actual trajectory data, hindering their ability to capture complex and stochastic phenomena. To address this limitation, we propose a dynamic regression framework incorporating time series models, such as autoregressive processes, to capture error dynamics. This statistically rigorous calibration outperforms the simple assumption of independent errors and enables more accurate simulation and prediction by leveraging higher-order historical information. We validate the effectiveness of our framework using HighD and OpenACC data, demonstrating improved probabilistic simulations. In summary, our framework preserves the parsimonious nature of traditional car-following models while offering enhanced probabilistic simulations.

Nurmuhammad et al. developed the Sinc-Nystr\"{o}m methods for initial value problems in which the solutions exhibit exponential decay end behavior. In these methods, the Single-Exponential (SE) transformation or the Double-Exponential (DE) transformation is combined with the Sinc approximation. Hara and Okayama improved on these transformations to attain a better convergence rate, which was later supported by theoretical error analyses. However, these methods have a computational drawback owing to the inclusion of a special function in the basis functions. To address this issue, Okayama and Hara proposed Sinc-collocation methods, which do not include any special function in the basis functions. This study conducts error analyses of these methods.

Model overconfidence and poor calibration are common in machine learning and difficult to account for when applying standard empirical risk minimization. In this work, we propose a novel method to alleviate these problems that we call odd-$k$-out learning (OKO), which minimizes the cross-entropy error for sets rather than for single examples. This naturally allows the model to capture correlations across data examples and achieves both better accuracy and calibration, especially in limited training data and class-imbalanced regimes. Perhaps surprisingly, OKO often yields better calibration even when training with hard labels and dropping any additional calibration parameter tuning, such as temperature scaling. We provide theoretical justification, establishing that OKO naturally yields better calibration, and provide extensive experimental analyses that corroborate our theoretical findings. We emphasize that OKO is a general framework that can be easily adapted to many settings and the trained model can be applied to single examples at inference time, without introducing significant run-time overhead or architecture changes.

Data reduction is a fundamental challenge of modern technology, where classical statistical methods are not applicable because of computational limitations. We consider linear regression for an extraordinarily large number of observations, but only a few covariates. Subsampling aims at the selection of a given percentage of the existing original data. Under distributional assumptions on the covariates, we derive D-optimal subsampling designs and study their theoretical properties. We make use of fundamental concepts of optimal design theory and an equivalence theorem from constrained convex optimization. The thus obtained subsampling designs provide simple rules for whether to accept or reject a data point, allowing for an easy algorithmic implementation. In addition, we propose a simplified subsampling method that differs from the D-optimal design but requires lower computing time. We present a simulation study, comparing both subsampling schemes with the IBOSS method.

The Independent Cutset problem asks whether there is a set of vertices in a given graph that is both independent and a cutset. Such a problem is $\textsf{NP}$-complete even when the input graph is planar and has maximum degree five. In this paper, we first present a $\mathcal{O}^*(1.4423^{n})$-time algorithm for the problem. We also show how to compute a minimum independent cutset (if any) in the same running time. Since the property of having an independent cutset is MSO$_1$-expressible, our main results are concerned with structural parameterizations for the problem considering parameters that are not bounded by a function of the clique-width of the input. We present $\textsf{FPT}$-time algorithms for the problem considering the following parameters: the dual of the maximum degree, the dual of the solution size, the size of a dominating set (where a dominating set is given as an additional input), the size of an odd cycle transversal, the distance to chordal graphs, and the distance to $P_5$-free graphs. We close by introducing the notion of $\alpha$-domination, which allows us to identify more fixed-parameter tractable and polynomial-time solvable cases.

In spite of the dominant performances of deep neural networks, recent works have shown that they are poorly calibrated, resulting in over-confident predictions. Miscalibration can be exacerbated by overfitting due to the minimization of the cross-entropy during training, as it promotes the predicted softmax probabilities to match the one-hot label assignments. This yields a pre-softmax activation of the correct class that is significantly larger than the remaining activations. Recent evidence from the literature suggests that loss functions that embed implicit or explicit maximization of the entropy of predictions yield state-of-the-art calibration performances. We provide a unifying constrained-optimization perspective of current state-of-the-art calibration losses. Specifically, these losses could be viewed as approximations of a linear penalty (or a Lagrangian) imposing equality constraints on logit distances. This points to an important limitation of such underlying equality constraints, whose ensuing gradients constantly push towards a non-informative solution, which might prevent from reaching the best compromise between the discriminative performance and calibration of the model during gradient-based optimization. Following our observations, we propose a simple and flexible generalization based on inequality constraints, which imposes a controllable margin on logit distances. Comprehensive experiments on a variety of image classification, semantic segmentation and NLP benchmarks demonstrate that our method sets novel state-of-the-art results on these tasks in terms of network calibration, without affecting the discriminative performance. The code is available at //github.com/by-liu/MbLS .

Probability density estimation is a core problem of statistics and signal processing. Moment methods are an important means of density estimation, but they are generally strongly dependent on the choice of feasible functions, which severely affects the performance. In this paper, we propose a non-classical parametrization for density estimation using sample moments, which does not require the choice of such functions. The parametrization is induced by the squared Hellinger distance, and the solution of it, which is proved to exist and be unique subject to a simple prior that does not depend on data, and can be obtained by convex optimization. Statistical properties of the density estimator, together with an asymptotic error upper bound are proposed for the estimator by power moments. Applications of the proposed density estimator in signal processing tasks are given. Simulation results validate the performance of the estimator by a comparison to several prevailing methods. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed estimator is the first one in the literature for which the power moments up to an arbitrary even order exactly match the sample moments, while the true density is not assumed to fall within specific function classes.

In this paper, we study the problems of detection and recovery of hidden submatrices with elevated means inside a large Gaussian random matrix. We consider two different structures for the planted submatrices. In the first model, the planted matrices are disjoint, and their row and column indices can be arbitrary. Inspired by scientific applications, the second model restricts the row and column indices to be consecutive. In the detection problem, under the null hypothesis, the observed matrix is a realization of independent and identically distributed standard normal entries. Under the alternative, there exists a set of hidden submatrices with elevated means inside the same standard normal matrix. Recovery refers to the task of locating the hidden submatrices. For both problems, and for both models, we characterize the statistical and computational barriers by deriving information-theoretic lower bounds, designing and analyzing algorithms matching those bounds, and proving computational lower bounds based on the low-degree polynomials conjecture. In particular, we show that the space of the model parameters (i.e., number of planted submatrices, their dimensions, and elevated mean) can be partitioned into three regions: the impossible regime, where all algorithms fail; the hard regime, where while detection or recovery are statistically possible, we give some evidence that polynomial-time algorithm do not exist; and finally the easy regime, where polynomial-time algorithms exist.