A limit theorem for the largest interpoint distance of $p$ independent and identically distributed points in $\mathbb{R}^n$ to the Gumbel distribution is proved, where the number of points $p=p_n$ tends to infinity as the dimension of the points $n\to\infty$. The theorem holds under moment assumptions and corresponding conditions on the growth rate of $p$. We obtain a plethora of ancillary results such as the joint convergence of maximum and minimum interpoint distances. Using the inherent sum structure of interpoint distances, our result is generalized to maxima of dependent random walks with non-decaying correlations and we also derive point process convergence. An application of the maximum interpoint distance to testing the equality of means for high-dimensional random vectors is presented. Moreover, we study the largest off-diagonal entry of a sample covariance matrix. The proofs are based on the Chen-Stein Poisson approximation method and Gaussian approximation to large deviation probabilities.
相關內容
We study the fundamental question of how to define and measure the distance from calibration for probabilistic predictors. While the notion of perfect calibration is well-understood, there is no consensus on how to quantify the distance from perfect calibration. Numerous calibration measures have been proposed in the literature, but it is unclear how they compare to each other, and many popular measures such as Expected Calibration Error (ECE) fail to satisfy basic properties like continuity. We present a rigorous framework for analyzing calibration measures, inspired by the literature on property testing. We propose a ground-truth notion of distance from calibration: the $\ell_1$ distance to the nearest perfectly calibrated predictor. We define a consistent calibration measure as one that is polynomially related to this distance. Applying our framework, we identify three calibration measures that are consistent and can be estimated efficiently: smooth calibration, interval calibration, and Laplace kernel calibration. The former two give quadratic approximations to the ground truth distance, which we show is information-theoretically optimal in a natural model for measuring calibration which we term the prediction-only access model. Our work thus establishes fundamental lower and upper bounds on measuring the distance to calibration, and also provides theoretical justification for preferring certain metrics (like Laplace kernel calibration) in practice.
This paper argues that the symmetrisability condition in Tyler(1981) is not necessary to establish asymptotic inference procedures for eigenvectors. We establish distribution theory for a Wald and t-test for full-vector and individual coefficient hypotheses, respectively. Our test statistics originate from eigenprojections of non-symmetric matrices. Representing projections as a mapping from the underlying matrix to its spectral data, we find derivatives through analytic perturbation theory. These results demonstrate how the analytic perturbation theory of Sun(1991) is a useful tool in multivariate statistics and are of independent interest. As an application, we define confidence sets for Bonacich centralities estimated from adjacency matrices induced by directed graphs.
Neural-network-based single image depth prediction (SIDP) is a challenging task where the goal is to predict the scene's per-pixel depth at test time. Since the problem, by definition, is ill-posed, the fundamental goal is to come up with an approach that can reliably model the scene depth from a set of training examples. In the pursuit of perfect depth estimation, most existing state-of-the-art learning techniques predict a single scalar depth value per-pixel. Yet, it is well-known that the trained model has accuracy limits and can predict imprecise depth. Therefore, an SIDP approach must be mindful of the expected depth variations in the model's prediction at test time. Accordingly, we introduce an approach that performs continuous modeling of per-pixel depth, where we can predict and reason about the per-pixel depth and its distribution. To this end, we model per-pixel scene depth using a multivariate Gaussian distribution. Moreover, contrary to the existing uncertainty modeling methods -- in the same spirit, where per-pixel depth is assumed to be independent, we introduce per-pixel covariance modeling that encodes its depth dependency w.r.t all the scene points. Unfortunately, per-pixel depth covariance modeling leads to a computationally expensive continuous loss function, which we solve efficiently using the learned low-rank approximation of the overall covariance matrix. Notably, when tested on benchmark datasets such as KITTI, NYU, and SUN-RGB-D, the SIDP model obtained by optimizing our loss function shows state-of-the-art results. Our method's accuracy (named MG) is among the top on the KITTI depth-prediction benchmark leaderboard.
In this paper, we investigate the optimal statistical performance and the impact of computational constraints for independent component analysis (ICA). Our goal is twofold. On the one hand, we characterize the precise role of dimensionality on sample complexity and statistical accuracy, and how computational consideration may affect them. In particular, we show that the optimal sample complexity is linear in dimensionality, and interestingly, the commonly used sample kurtosis-based approaches are necessarily suboptimal. However, the optimal sample complexity becomes quadratic, up to a logarithmic factor, in the dimension if we restrict ourselves to estimates that can be computed with low-degree polynomial algorithms. On the other hand, we develop computationally tractable estimates that attain both the optimal sample complexity and minimax optimal rates of convergence. We study the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimates and establish their asymptotic normality that can be readily used for statistical inferences. Our method is fairly easy to implement and numerical experiments are presented to further demonstrate its practical merits.
Graph Laplacian based algorithms for data lying on a manifold have been proven effective for tasks such as dimensionality reduction, clustering, and denoising. In this work, we consider data sets whose data point not only lie on a manifold, but are also closed under the action of a continuous group. An example of such data set is volumes that line on a low dimensional manifold, where each volume may be rotated in three-dimensional space. We introduce the G-invariant graph Laplacian that generalizes the graph Laplacian by accounting for the action of the group on the data set. We show that like the standard graph Laplacian, the G-invariant graph Laplacian converges to the Laplace-Beltrami operator on the data manifold, but with a significantly improved convergence rate. Furthermore, we show that the eigenfunctions of the G-invariant graph Laplacian admit the form of tensor products between the group elements and eigenvectors of certain matrices, which can be computed efficiently using FFT-type algorithms. We demonstrate our construction and its advantages on the problem of filtering data on a noisy manifold closed under the action of the special unitary group SU(2).
The ability to predict traffic flow over time for crowded areas during rush hours is increasingly important as it can help authorities make informed decisions for congestion mitigation or scheduling of infrastructure development in an area. However, a crucial challenge in traffic flow forecasting is the slow shifting in temporal peaks between daily and weekly cycles, resulting in the nonstationarity of the traffic flow signal and leading to difficulty in accurate forecasting. To address this challenge, we propose a slow shifting concerned machine learning method for traffic flow forecasting, which includes two parts. First, we take advantage of Empirical Mode Decomposition as the feature engineering to alleviate the nonstationarity of traffic flow data, yielding a series of stationary components. Second, due to the superiority of Long-Short-Term-Memory networks in capturing temporal features, an advanced traffic flow forecasting model is developed by taking the stationary components as inputs. Finally, we apply this method on a benchmark of real-world data and provide a comparison with other existing methods. Our proposed method outperforms the state-of-art results by 14.55% and 62.56% using the metrics of root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error, respectively.
The information bottleneck (IB) method offers an attractive framework for understanding representation learning, however its applications are often limited by its computational intractability. Analytical characterization of the IB method is not only of practical interest, but it can also lead to new insights into learning phenomena. Here we consider a generalized IB problem, in which the mutual information in the original IB method is replaced by correlation measures based on Renyi and Jeffreys divergences. We derive an exact analytical IB solution for the case of Gaussian correlated variables. Our analysis reveals a series of structural transitions, similar to those previously observed in the original IB case. We find further that although solving the original, Renyi and Jeffreys IB problems yields different representations in general, the structural transitions occur at the same critical tradeoff parameters, and the Renyi and Jeffreys IB solutions perform well under the original IB objective. Our results suggest that formulating the IB method with alternative correlation measures could offer a strategy for obtaining an approximate solution to the original IB problem.
Modeling multivariate time series has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including economics, finance, and traffic. A basic assumption behind multivariate time series forecasting is that its variables depend on one another but, upon looking closely, it is fair to say that existing methods fail to fully exploit latent spatial dependencies between pairs of variables. In recent years, meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown high capability in handling relational dependencies. GNNs require well-defined graph structures for information propagation which means they cannot be applied directly for multivariate time series where the dependencies are not known in advance. In this paper, we propose a general graph neural network framework designed specifically for multivariate time series data. Our approach automatically extracts the uni-directed relations among variables through a graph learning module, into which external knowledge like variable attributes can be easily integrated. A novel mix-hop propagation layer and a dilated inception layer are further proposed to capture the spatial and temporal dependencies within the time series. The graph learning, graph convolution, and temporal convolution modules are jointly learned in an end-to-end framework. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods on 3 of 4 benchmark datasets and achieves on-par performance with other approaches on two traffic datasets which provide extra structural information.
We advocate the use of implicit fields for learning generative models of shapes and introduce an implicit field decoder for shape generation, aimed at improving the visual quality of the generated shapes. An implicit field assigns a value to each point in 3D space, so that a shape can be extracted as an iso-surface. Our implicit field decoder is trained to perform this assignment by means of a binary classifier. Specifically, it takes a point coordinate, along with a feature vector encoding a shape, and outputs a value which indicates whether the point is outside the shape or not. By replacing conventional decoders by our decoder for representation learning and generative modeling of shapes, we demonstrate superior results for tasks such as shape autoencoding, generation, interpolation, and single-view 3D reconstruction, particularly in terms of visual quality.
Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191