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With the rapid advances of data acquisition techniques, spatio-temporal data are becoming increasingly abundant in a diverse array of disciplines. Here we develop spatio-temporal regression methodology for analyzing large amounts of spatially referenced data collected over time, motivated by environmental studies utilizing remotely sensed satellite data. In particular, we specify a semiparametric autoregressive model without the usual Gaussian assumption and devise a computationally scalable procedure that enables the regression analysis of large datasets. We estimate the model parameters by quasi maximum likelihood and show that the computational complexity can be reduced from cubic to linear of the sample size. Asymptotic properties under suitable regularity conditions are further established that inform the computational procedure to be efficient and scalable. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the finite-sample properties of the parameter estimation and statistical inference. We illustrate our methodology by a dataset with over 2.96 million observations of annual land surface temperature and the comparison with an existing state-of-the-art approach highlights the advantages of our method.

We present a novel class of projected methods, to perform statistical analysis on a data set of probability distributions on the real line, with the 2-Wasserstein metric. We focus in particular on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and regression. To define these models, we exploit a representation of the Wasserstein space closely related to its weak Riemannian structure, by mapping the data to a suitable linear space and using a metric projection operator to constrain the results in the Wasserstein space. By carefully choosing the tangent point, we are able to derive fast empirical methods, exploiting a constrained B-spline approximation. As a byproduct of our approach, we are also able to derive faster routines for previous work on PCA for distributions. By means of simulation studies, we compare our approaches to previously proposed methods, showing that our projected PCA has similar performance for a fraction of the computational cost and that the projected regression is extremely flexible even under misspecification. Several theoretical properties of the models are investigated and asymptotic consistency is proven. Two real world applications to Covid-19 mortality in the US and wind speed forecasting are discussed.

We investigate a clustering problem with data from a mixture of Gaussians that share a common but unknown, and potentially ill-conditioned, covariance matrix. We start by considering Gaussian mixtures with two equally-sized components and derive a Max-Cut integer program based on maximum likelihood estimation. We prove its solutions achieve the optimal misclassification rate when the number of samples grows linearly in the dimension, up to a logarithmic factor. However, solving the Max-cut problem appears to be computationally intractable. To overcome this, we develop an efficient spectral algorithm that attains the optimal rate but requires a quadratic sample size. Although this sample complexity is worse than that of the Max-cut problem, we conjecture that no polynomial-time method can perform better. Furthermore, we gather numerical and theoretical evidence that supports the existence of a statistical-computational gap. Finally, we generalize the Max-Cut program to a $k$-means program that handles multi-component mixtures with possibly unequal weights. It enjoys similar optimality guarantees for mixtures of distributions that satisfy a transportation-cost inequality, encompassing Gaussian and strongly log-concave distributions.

We introduce the problem of robust subgroup discovery, i.e., finding a set of interpretable descriptions of subsets that 1) stand out with respect to one or more target attributes, 2) are statistically robust, and 3) non-redundant. Many attempts have been made to mine either locally robust subgroups or to tackle the pattern explosion, but we are the first to address both challenges at the same time from a global modelling perspective. First, we formulate the broad model class of subgroup lists, i.e., ordered sets of subgroups, for univariate and multivariate targets that can consist of nominal or numeric variables, and that includes traditional top-1 subgroup discovery in its definition. This novel model class allows us to formalise the problem of optimal robust subgroup discovery using the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle, where we resort to optimal Normalised Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian encodings for nominal and numeric targets, respectively. Second, as finding optimal subgroup lists is NP-hard, we propose SSD++, a greedy heuristic that finds good subgroup lists and guarantees that the most significant subgroup found according to the MDL criterion is added in each iteration, which is shown to be equivalent to a Bayesian one-sample proportions, multinomial, or t-test between the subgroup and dataset marginal target distributions plus a multiple hypothesis testing penalty. We empirically show on 54 datasets that SSD++ outperforms previous subgroup set discovery methods in terms of quality and subgroup list size.

Determinantal Point Process (DPPs) are statistical models for repulsive point patterns. Both sampling and inference are tractable for DPPs, a rare feature among models with negative dependence that explains their popularity in machine learning and spatial statistics. Parametric and nonparametric inference methods have been proposed in the finite case, i.e. when the point patterns live in a finite ground set. In the continuous case, only parametric methods have been investigated, while nonparametric maximum likelihood for DPPs -- an optimization problem over trace-class operators -- has remained an open question. In this paper, we show that a restricted version of this maximum likelihood (MLE) problem falls within the scope of a recent representer theorem for nonnegative functions in an RKHS. This leads to a finite-dimensional problem, with strong statistical ties to the original MLE. Moreover, we propose, analyze, and demonstrate a fixed point algorithm to solve this finite-dimensional problem. Finally, we also provide a controlled estimate of the correlation kernel of the DPP, thus providing more interpretability.

Sparse Conditional Random Field (CRF) is a powerful technique in computer vision and natural language processing for structured prediction. However, solving sparse CRFs in large-scale applications remains challenging. In this paper, we propose a novel safe dynamic screening method that exploits an accurate dual optimum estimation to identify and remove the irrelevant features during the training process. Thus, the problem size can be reduced continuously, leading to great savings in the computational cost without sacrificing any accuracy on the finally learned model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first screening method which introduces the dual optimum estimation technique -- by carefully exploring and exploiting the strong convexity and the complex structure of the dual problem -- in static screening methods to dynamic screening. In this way, we can absorb the advantages of both the static and dynamic screening methods and avoid their drawbacks. Our estimation would be much more accurate than those developed based on the duality gap, which contributes to a much stronger screening rule. Moreover, our method is also the first screening method in sparse CRFs and even structure prediction models. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that the speedup gained by our method is significant.

We present a new approach for inference about a log-concave distribution: Instead of using the method of maximum likelihood, we propose to incorporate the log-concavity constraint in an appropriate nonparametric confidence set for the cdf $F$. This approach has the advantage that it automatically provides a measure of statistical uncertainty and it thus overcomes a marked limitation of the maximum likelihood estimate. In particular, we show how to construct confidence bands for the density that have a finite sample guaranteed confidence level. The nonparametric confidence set for $F$ which we introduce here has attractive computational and statistical properties: It allows to bring modern tools from optimization to bear on this problem via difference of convex programming, and it results in optimal statistical inference. We show that the width of the resulting confidence bands converges at nearly the parametric $n^{-\frac{1}{2}}$ rate when the log density is $k$-affine.

A Bayesian Discrepancy Test (BDT) is proposed to evaluate the distance of a given hypothesis with respect to the available information (prior law and data). The proposed measure of evidence has properties of consistency and invariance. After having presented the similarities and differences between the BDT and other Bayesian tests, we proceed with the analysis of some multiparametric case studies, showing the properties of the BDT. Among them conceptual and interpretative simplicity, possibility of dealing with complex case studies.

The estimation of information measures of continuous distributions based on samples is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. In this paper, we analyze estimates of differential entropy in $K$-dimensional Euclidean space, computed from a finite number of samples, when the probability density function belongs to a predetermined convex family $\mathcal{P}$. First, estimating differential entropy to any accuracy is shown to be infeasible if the differential entropy of densities in $\mathcal{P}$ is unbounded, clearly showing the necessity of additional assumptions. Subsequently, we investigate sufficient conditions that enable confidence bounds for the estimation of differential entropy. In particular, we provide confidence bounds for simple histogram based estimation of differential entropy from a fixed number of samples, assuming that the probability density function is Lipschitz continuous with known Lipschitz constant and known, bounded support. Our focus is on differential entropy, but we provide examples that show that similar results hold for mutual information and relative entropy as well.

We present self-supervised geometric perception (SGP), the first general framework to learn a feature descriptor for correspondence matching without any ground-truth geometric model labels (e.g., camera poses, rigid transformations). Our first contribution is to formulate geometric perception as an optimization problem that jointly optimizes the feature descriptor and the geometric models given a large corpus of visual measurements (e.g., images, point clouds). Under this optimization formulation, we show that two important streams of research in vision, namely robust model fitting and deep feature learning, correspond to optimizing one block of the unknown variables while fixing the other block. This analysis naturally leads to our second contribution -- the SGP algorithm that performs alternating minimization to solve the joint optimization. SGP iteratively executes two meta-algorithms: a teacher that performs robust model fitting given learned features to generate geometric pseudo-labels, and a student that performs deep feature learning under noisy supervision of the pseudo-labels. As a third contribution, we apply SGP to two perception problems on large-scale real datasets, namely relative camera pose estimation on MegaDepth and point cloud registration on 3DMatch. We demonstrate that SGP achieves state-of-the-art performance that is on-par or superior to the supervised oracles trained using ground-truth labels.