Evaluation of predictive deep learning (DL) models beyond conventional performance metrics has become increasingly important for applications in sensitive environments like healthcare. Such models might have the capability to encode and analyse large sets of data but they often lack comprehensive interpretability methods, preventing clinical trust in predictive outcomes. Quantifying uncertainty of a prediction is one way to provide such interpretability and promote trust. However, relatively little attention has been paid to how to include such requirements into the training of the model. In this paper we: (i) quantify the data (aleatoric) and model (epistemic) uncertainty of a DL model for Cardiac Resynchronisation Therapy response prediction from cardiac magnetic resonance images, and (ii) propose and perform a preliminary investigation of an uncertainty-aware loss function that can be used to retrain an existing DL image-based classification model to encourage confidence in correct predictions and reduce confidence in incorrect predictions. Our initial results are promising, showing a significant increase in the (epistemic) confidence of true positive predictions, with some evidence of a reduction in false negative confidence.
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The accuracy and completeness of population estimation would significantly impact the allocation of public resources. However, the current census paradigm experiences a non-negligible level of under-counting. Existing solutions to this problem by the Census Bureau is to increase canvassing efforts, which leads to expensive and inefficient usage of human resources. In this work, we argue that the existence of hidden multi-family households is a significant cause of under-counting. Accordingly, we introduce a low-cost but high-accuracy method that combines satellite imagery and deep learning technologies to identify hidden multi-family (HMF) households. With comprehensive knowledge of the HMF households, the efficiency and effectiveness of the decennial census could be vastly improved. An extensive experiment demonstrates that our approach can discover over 1800 undetected HMF in a single zipcode of the Houston area.
This work focuses on the space-time reduced-order modeling (ROM) method for solving large-scale uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems with multiple random coefficients. In contrast with the traditional space ROM approach, which performs dimension reduction in the spatial dimension, the space-time ROM approach performs dimension reduction on both the spatial and temporal domains, and thus enables accurate approximate solutions at a low cost. We incorporate the space-time ROM strategy with various classical stochastic UQ propagation methods such as stochastic Galerkin and Monte Carlo. Numerical results demonstrate that our methodology has significant computational advantages compared to state-of-the-art ROM approaches. By testing the approximation errors, we show that there is no obvious loss of simulation accuracy for space-time ROM given its high computational efficiency.
Improving learning efficiency is paramount for learning resource allocation with deep neural networks (DNNs) in wireless communications over highly dynamic environments. Incorporating domain knowledge into learning is a promising way of dealing with this issue, which is an emerging topic in the wireless community. In this article, we first briefly summarize two classes of approaches to using domain knowledge: introducing mathematical models or prior knowledge to deep learning. Then, we consider a kind of symmetric prior, permutation equivariance, which widely exists in wireless tasks. To explain how such a generic prior is harnessed to improve learning efficiency, we resort to ranking, which jointly sorts the input and output of a DNN. We use power allocation among subcarriers, probabilistic content caching, and interference coordination to illustrate the improvement of learning efficiency by exploiting the property. From the case study, we find that the required training samples to achieve given system performance decreases with the number of subcarriers or contents, owing to an interesting phenomenon: "sample hardening". Simulation results show that the training samples, the free parameters in DNNs and the training time can be reduced dramatically by harnessing the prior knowledge. The samples required to train a DNN after ranking can be reduced by $15 \sim 2,400$ folds to achieve the same system performance as the counterpart without using prior.
Deep Learning (DL) holds great promise in reshaping the healthcare systems given its precision, efficiency, and objectivity. However, the brittleness of DL models to noisy and out-of-distribution inputs is ailing their deployment in the clinic. Most systems produce point estimates without further information about model uncertainty or confidence. This paper introduces a new Bayesian deep learning framework for uncertainty quantification in segmentation neural networks, specifically encoder-decoder architectures. The proposed framework uses the first-order Taylor series approximation to propagate and learn the first two moments (mean and covariance) of the distribution of the model parameters given the training data by maximizing the evidence lower bound. The output consists of two maps: the segmented image and the uncertainty map of the segmentation. The uncertainty in the segmentation decisions is captured by the covariance matrix of the predictive distribution. We evaluate the proposed framework on medical image segmentation data from Magnetic Resonances Imaging and Computed Tomography scans. Our experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework is more robust to noise and adversarial attacks as compared to state-of-the-art segmentation models. Moreover, the uncertainty map of the proposed framework associates low confidence (or equivalently high uncertainty) to patches in the test input images that are corrupted with noise, artifacts or adversarial attacks. Thus, the model can self-assess its segmentation decisions when it makes an erroneous prediction or misses part of the segmentation structures, e.g., tumor, by presenting higher values in the uncertainty map.
Deep neural networks have significantly contributed to the success in predictive accuracy for classification tasks. However, they tend to make over-confident predictions in real-world settings, where domain shifting and out-of-distribution (OOD) examples exist. Most research on uncertainty estimation focuses on computer vision because it provides visual validation on uncertainty quality. However, few have been presented in the natural language process domain. Unlike Bayesian methods that indirectly infer uncertainty through weight uncertainties, current evidential uncertainty-based methods explicitly model the uncertainty of class probabilities through subjective opinions. They further consider inherent uncertainty in data with different root causes, vacuity (i.e., uncertainty due to a lack of evidence) and dissonance (i.e., uncertainty due to conflicting evidence). In our paper, we firstly apply evidential uncertainty in OOD detection for text classification tasks. We propose an inexpensive framework that adopts both auxiliary outliers and pseudo off-manifold samples to train the model with prior knowledge of a certain class, which has high vacuity for OOD samples. Extensive empirical experiments demonstrate that our model based on evidential uncertainty outperforms other counterparts for detecting OOD examples. Our approach can be easily deployed to traditional recurrent neural networks and fine-tuned pre-trained transformers.
One of the difficulties of conversion rate (CVR) prediction is that the conversions can delay and take place long after the clicks. The delayed feedback poses a challenge: fresh data are beneficial to continuous training but may not have complete label information at the time they are ingested into the training pipeline. To balance model freshness and label certainty, previous methods set a short waiting window or even do not wait for the conversion signal. If conversion happens outside the waiting window, this sample will be duplicated and ingested into the training pipeline with a positive label. However, these methods have some issues. First, they assume the observed feature distribution remains the same as the actual distribution. But this assumption does not hold due to the ingestion of duplicated samples. Second, the certainty of the conversion action only comes from the positives. But the positives are scarce as conversions are sparse in commercial systems. These issues induce bias during the modeling of delayed feedback. In this paper, we propose DElayed FEedback modeling with Real negatives (DEFER) method to address these issues. The proposed method ingests real negative samples into the training pipeline. The ingestion of real negatives ensures the observed feature distribution is equivalent to the actual distribution, thus reducing the bias. The ingestion of real negatives also brings more certainty information of the conversion. To correct the distribution shift, DEFER employs importance sampling to weigh the loss function. Experimental results on industrial datasets validate the superiority of DEFER. DEFER have been deployed in the display advertising system of Alibaba, obtaining over 6.0% improvement on CVR in several scenarios. The code and data in this paper are now open-sourced {//github.com/gusuperstar/defer.git}.
Despite the state-of-the-art performance for medical image segmentation, deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have rarely provided uncertainty estimations regarding their segmentation outputs, e.g., model (epistemic) and image-based (aleatoric) uncertainties. In this work, we analyze these different types of uncertainties for CNN-based 2D and 3D medical image segmentation tasks. We additionally propose a test-time augmentation-based aleatoric uncertainty to analyze the effect of different transformations of the input image on the segmentation output. Test-time augmentation has been previously used to improve segmentation accuracy, yet not been formulated in a consistent mathematical framework. Hence, we also propose a theoretical formulation of test-time augmentation, where a distribution of the prediction is estimated by Monte Carlo simulation with prior distributions of parameters in an image acquisition model that involves image transformations and noise. We compare and combine our proposed aleatoric uncertainty with model uncertainty. Experiments with segmentation of fetal brains and brain tumors from 2D and 3D Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) showed that 1) the test-time augmentation-based aleatoric uncertainty provides a better uncertainty estimation than calculating the test-time dropout-based model uncertainty alone and helps to reduce overconfident incorrect predictions, and 2) our test-time augmentation outperforms a single-prediction baseline and dropout-based multiple predictions.
Data augmentation has been widely used for training deep learning systems for medical image segmentation and plays an important role in obtaining robust and transformation-invariant predictions. However, it has seldom been used at test time for segmentation and not been formulated in a consistent mathematical framework. In this paper, we first propose a theoretical formulation of test-time augmentation for deep learning in image recognition, where the prediction is obtained through estimating its expectation by Monte Carlo simulation with prior distributions of parameters in an image acquisition model that involves image transformations and noise. We then propose a novel uncertainty estimation method based on the formulated test-time augmentation. Experiments with segmentation of fetal brains and brain tumors from 2D and 3D Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) showed that 1) our test-time augmentation outperforms a single-prediction baseline and dropout-based multiple predictions, and 2) it provides a better uncertainty estimation than calculating the model-based uncertainty alone and helps to reduce overconfident incorrect predictions.
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are powerful tools for learning generative models. In practice, the training may suffer from lack of convergence. GANs are commonly viewed as a two-player zero-sum game between two neural networks. Here, we leverage this game theoretic view to study the convergence behavior of the training process. Inspired by the fictitious play learning process, a novel training method, referred to as Fictitious GAN, is introduced. Fictitious GAN trains the deep neural networks using a mixture of historical models. Specifically, the discriminator (resp. generator) is updated according to the best-response to the mixture outputs from a sequence of previously trained generators (resp. discriminators). It is shown that Fictitious GAN can effectively resolve some convergence issues that cannot be resolved by the standard training approach. It is proved that asymptotically the average of the generator outputs has the same distribution as the data samples.
In this paper we introduce a covariance framework for the analysis of EEG and MEG data that takes into account observed temporal stationarity on small time scales and trial-to-trial variations. We formulate a model for the covariance matrix, which is a Kronecker product of three components that correspond to space, time and epochs/trials, and consider maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameter values. An iterative algorithm that finds approximations of the maximum likelihood estimates is proposed. We perform a simulation study to assess the performance of the estimator and investigate the influence of different assumptions about the covariance factors on the estimated covariance matrix and on its components. Apart from that, we illustrate our method on real EEG and MEG data sets. The proposed covariance model is applicable in a variety of cases where spontaneous EEG or MEG acts as source of noise and realistic noise covariance estimates are needed for accurate dipole localization, such as in evoked activity studies, or where the properties of spontaneous EEG or MEG are themselves the topic of interest, such as in combined EEG/fMRI experiments in which the correlation between EEG and fMRI signals is investigated.
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