It is argued that there is a need for fat-tailed distributions that become thin in the extreme tail. A 3-parameter distribution is introduced that visually resembles the t-distribution and interpolates between the normal distribution and the Cauchy distribution. It is fat-tailed, but has all moments finite, and the moment-generating function exists. It would be useful as an alternative to the t-distribution for a sensitivity analysis to check the robustness of results or for computations where finite moments are needed, such as in option-pricing. It can be motivated probabilistically in at least two ways, either as the random thinning of a long-tailed distribution, or as random variation of the variance of a normal distribution. Its properties are described, algorithms for random-number generation are provided, and examples of its use in data-fitting given. Some related distributions are also discussed, including asymmetric and multivariate distributions.
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In a sports competition, a team might lose a powerful incentive to exert full effort if its final rank does not depend on the outcome of the matches still to be played. Therefore, the organiser should reduce the probability of such a situation to the extent possible. Our paper provides a classification scheme to identify these weakly (where one team is indifferent) or strongly (where both teams are indifferent) stakeless games. A statistical model is estimated to simulate the UEFA Champions League groups and compare the candidate schedules used in the 2021/22 season according to the competitiveness of the matches played in the last round(s). The option followed in four of the eight groups is found to be optimal under a wide set of parameters. Minimising the number of strongly stakeless matches is verified to be a likely goal in the computer draw of the fixture that remains hidden from the public.
Linear mixed models (LMMs) are instrumental for regression analysis with structured dependence, such as grouped, clustered, or multilevel data. However, selection among the covariates--while accounting for this structured dependence--remains a challenge. We introduce a Bayesian decision analysis for subset selection with LMMs. Using a Mahalanobis loss function that incorporates the structured dependence, we derive optimal linear coefficients for (i) any given subset of variables and (ii) all subsets of variables that satisfy a cardinality constraint. Crucially, these estimates inherit shrinkage or regularization and uncertainty quantification from the underlying Bayesian model, and apply for any well-specified Bayesian LMM. More broadly, our decision analysis strategy deemphasizes the role of a single "best" subset, which is often unstable and limited in its information content, and instead favors a collection of near-optimal subsets. This collection is summarized by key member subsets and variable-specific importance metrics. Customized subset search and out-of-sample approximation algorithms are provided for more scalable computing. These tools are applied to simulated data and a longitudinal physical activity dataset, and demonstrate excellent prediction, estimation, and selection ability.
We study the distributed minimum spanning tree (MST) problem, a fundamental problem in distributed computing. It is well-known that distributed MST can be solved in $\tilde{O}(D+\sqrt{n})$ rounds in the standard CONGEST model (where $n$ is the network size and $D$ is the network diameter) and this is essentially the best possible round complexity (up to logarithmic factors). However, in resource-constrained networks such as ad hoc wireless and sensor networks, nodes spending so much time can lead to significant spending of resources such as energy. Motivated by the above consideration, we study distributed algorithms for MST under the \emph{sleeping model} [Chatterjee et al., PODC 2020], a model for design and analysis of resource-efficient distributed algorithms. In the sleeping model, a node can be in one of two modes in any round -- \emph{sleeping} or \emph{awake} (unlike the traditional model where nodes are always awake). Only the rounds in which a node is \emph{awake} are counted, while \emph{sleeping} rounds are ignored. A node spends resources only in the awake rounds and hence the main goal is to minimize the \emph{awake complexity} of a distributed algorithm, the worst-case number of rounds any node is awake. We present deterministic and randomized distributed MST algorithms that have an \emph{optimal} awake complexity of $O(\log n)$ time with a matching lower bound. We also show that our randomized awake-optimal algorithm has essentially the best possible round complexity by presenting a lower bound of $\tilde{\Omega}(n)$ on the product of the awake and round complexity of any distributed algorithm (including randomized) that outputs an MST, where $\tilde{\Omega}$ hides a $1/(\text{polylog } n)$ factor.
In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for log-spacings of top order statistics. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are investigated analytically and found to be asymptotically unbiased, consistent and normally distributed. Also, the finite sample behaviour of the estimators are studied through a simulations theory. The proposed estimators were found to yield low bias and MSE. In addition, the proposed estimators are illustrated through the estimation of the tail index of the underlying distribution of claims from the insurance industry.
The four-parameter generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GBII) has been proposed for modelling insurance losses with heavy-tailed features. The aim of this paper is to present a parametric composite GBII regression modelling by splicing two GBII distributions using mode matching method. It is designed for simultaneous modeling of small and large claims and capturing the policyholder heterogeneity by introducing the covariates into the location parameter. In such cases, the threshold that splits two GBII distributions varies across individuals policyholders based on their risk features. The proposed regression modelling also contains a wide range of insurance loss distributions as the head and the tail respectively and provides the close-formed expressions for parameter estimation and model prediction. A simulation study is conducted to show the accuracy of the proposed estimation method and the flexibility of the regressions. Some illustrations of the applicability of the new class of distributions and regressions are provided with a Danish fire losses data set and a Chinese medical insurance claims data set, comparing with the results of competing models from the literature.
A novel topological-data-analytical (TDA) method is proposed to distinguish, from noise, small holes surrounded by high-density regions of a probability density function whose mass is concentrated near a manifold (or more generally, a CW complex) embedded in a high-dimensional Euclidean space. The proposed method is robust against additive noise and outliers. In particular, sample points are allowed to be perturbed away from the manifold. Traditional TDA tools, like those based on the distance filtration, often struggle to distinguish small features from noise, because of their short persistence. An alternative filtration, called Robust Density-Aware Distance (RDAD) filtration, is proposed to prolong the persistence of small holes surrounded by high-density regions. This is achieved by weighting the distance function by the density in the sense of Bell et al. Distance-to-measure is incorporated to enhance stability and mitigate noise due to the density estimation. The utility of the proposed filtration in identifying small holes, as well as its robustness against noise, are illustrated through an analytical example and extensive numerical experiments. Basic mathematical properties of the proposed filtration are proven.
To simulate noisy boson sampling approximating it by only the lower-order multi-boson interferences (e.g., by a smaller number of interfering bosons and classical particles) is very popular idea. I show that the output data from any such classical simulations can be efficiently distinguished from that of the quantum device they try to simulate, even with finite noise in the latter. The distinguishing datasets can be the experimental estimates of some large probabilities, a wide class of such is presented. This is a sequel of \textit{Quantum} \textbf{5}, 423 (2021), where I present more accessible account of the main result enhanced by additional insight on the contribution from the higher-order multi-boson interferences in presence of noise.
This paper studies how well generative adversarial networks (GANs) learn probability distributions from finite samples. Our main results establish the convergence rates of GANs under a collection of integral probability metrics defined through H\"older classes, including the Wasserstein distance as a special case. We also show that GANs are able to adaptively learn data distributions with low-dimensional structures or have H\"older densities, when the network architectures are chosen properly. In particular, for distributions concentrated around a low-dimensional set, we show that the learning rates of GANs do not depend on the high ambient dimension, but on the lower intrinsic dimension. Our analysis is based on a new oracle inequality decomposing the estimation error into the generator and discriminator approximation error and the statistical error, which may be of independent interest.
Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal likelihood (model evidence), which is computationally challenging, prohibiting its use in many high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. With Bayesian imaging applications in mind, in this work we present the proximal nested sampling methodology to objectively compare alternative Bayesian imaging models for applications that use images to inform decisions under uncertainty. The methodology is based on nested sampling, a Monte Carlo approach specialised for model comparison, and exploits proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to scale efficiently to large problems and to tackle models that are log-concave and not necessarily smooth (e.g., involving l_1 or total-variation priors). The proposed approach can be applied computationally to problems of dimension O(10^6) and beyond, making it suitable for high-dimensional inverse imaging problems. It is validated on large Gaussian models, for which the likelihood is available analytically, and subsequently illustrated on a range of imaging problems where it is used to analyse different choices of dictionary and measurement model.
In the pooled data problem we are given a set of $n$ agents, each of which holds a hidden state bit, either $0$ or $1$. A querying procedure returns for a query set the sum of the states of the queried agents. The goal is to reconstruct the states using as few queries as possible. In this paper we consider two noise models for the pooled data problem. In the noisy channel model, the result for each agent flips with a certain probability. In the noisy query model, each query result is subject to random Gaussian noise. Our results are twofold. First, we present and analyze for both error models a simple and efficient distributed algorithm that reconstructs the initial states in a greedy fashion. Our novel analysis pins down the range of error probabilities and distributions for which our algorithm reconstructs the exact initial states with high probability. Secondly, we present simulation results of our algorithm and compare its performance with approximate message passing (AMP) algorithms that are conjectured to be optimal in a number of related problems.
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