Linear systems occur throughout engineering and the sciences, most notably as differential equations. In many cases the forcing function for the system is unknown, and interest lies in using noisy observations of the system to infer the forcing, as well as other unknown parameters. In differential equations, the forcing function is an unknown function of the independent variables (typically time and space), and can be modelled as a Gaussian process (GP). In this paper we show how the adjoint of a linear system can be used to efficiently infer forcing functions modelled as GPs, after using a truncated basis expansion of the GP kernel. We show how exact conjugate Bayesian inference for the truncated GP can be achieved, in many cases with substantially lower computation than would be required using MCMC methods. We demonstrate the approach on systems of both ordinary and partial differential equations, and by testing on synthetic data, show that the basis expansion approach approximates well the true forcing with a modest number of basis vectors. Finally, we show how to infer point estimates for the non-linear model parameters, such as the kernel length-scales, using Bayesian optimisation.
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Although robust learning and local differential privacy are both widely studied fields of research, combining the two settings is just starting to be explored. We consider the problem of estimating a discrete distribution in total variation from $n$ contaminated data batches under a local differential privacy constraint. A fraction $1-\epsilon$ of the batches contain $k$ i.i.d. samples drawn from a discrete distribution $p$ over $d$ elements. To protect the users' privacy, each of the samples is privatized using an $\alpha$-locally differentially private mechanism. The remaining $\epsilon n $ batches are an adversarial contamination. The minimax rate of estimation under contamination alone, with no privacy, is known to be $\epsilon/\sqrt{k}+\sqrt{d/kn}$, up to a $\sqrt{\log(1/\epsilon)}$ factor. Under the privacy constraint alone, the minimax rate of estimation is $\sqrt{d^2/\alpha^2 kn}$. We show that combining the two constraints leads to a minimax estimation rate of $\epsilon\sqrt{d/\alpha^2 k}+\sqrt{d^2/\alpha^2 kn}$ up to a $\sqrt{\log(1/\epsilon)}$ factor, larger than the sum of the two separate rates. We provide a polynomial-time algorithm achieving this bound, as well as a matching information theoretic lower bound.
We introduce the package "GraphicalModelsMLE" for computing the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of a Gaussian graphical model in the computer algebra system Macaulay2. This package allows the computation of MLEs for the class of loopless mixed graphs. Additional functionality allows the user to explore the underlying algebraic structure of the model, such as its maximum likelihood degree and the ideal of score equations.
We provide a decision theoretic analysis of bandit experiments. The setting corresponds to a dynamic programming problem, but solving this directly is typically infeasible. Working within the framework of diffusion asymptotics, we define suitable notions of asymptotic Bayes and minimax risk for bandit experiments. For normally distributed rewards, the minimal Bayes risk can be characterized as the solution to a nonlinear second-order partial differential equation (PDE). Using a limit of experiments approach, we show that this PDE characterization also holds asymptotically under both parametric and non-parametric distribution of the rewards. The approach further describes the state variables it is asymptotically sufficient to restrict attention to, and therefore suggests a practical strategy for dimension reduction. The upshot is that we can approximate the dynamic programming problem defining the bandit experiment with a PDE which can be efficiently solved using sparse matrix routines. We derive the optimal Bayes and minimax policies from the numerical solutions to these equations. The proposed policies substantially dominate existing methods such as Thompson sampling. The framework also allows for substantial generalizations to the bandit problem such as time discounting and pure exploration motives.
Multigrid is a powerful solver for large-scale linear systems arising from discretized partial differential equations. The convergence theory of multigrid methods for symmetric positive definite problems has been well developed over the past decades, while, for nonsymmetric problems, such theory is still not mature. As a foundation for multigrid analysis, two-grid convergence theory plays an important role in motivating multigrid algorithms. Regarding two-grid methods for nonsymmetric problems, most previous works focus on the spectral radius of iteration matrix or rely on convergence measures that are typically difficult to compute in practice. Moreover, the existing results are confined to two-grid methods with exact solution of the coarse-grid system. In this paper, we analyze the convergence of a two-grid method for nonsymmetric positive definite problems (e.g., linear systems arising from the discretizations of convection-diffusion equations). In the case of exact coarse solver, we establish an elegant identity for characterizing two-grid convergence factor, which is measured by a smoother-induced norm. The identity can be conveniently used to derive a class of optimal restriction operators and analyze how the convergence factor is influenced by restriction. More generally, we present some convergence estimates for an inexact variant of the two-grid method, in which both linear and nonlinear coarse solvers are considered.
Let $X^{(n)}$ be an observation sampled from a distribution $P_{\theta}^{(n)}$ with an unknown parameter $\theta,$ $\theta$ being a vector in a Banach space $E$ (most often, a high-dimensional space of dimension $d$). We study the problem of estimation of $f(\theta)$ for a functional $f:E\mapsto {\mathbb R}$ of some smoothness $s>0$ based on an observation $X^{(n)}\sim P_{\theta}^{(n)}.$ Assuming that there exists an estimator $\hat \theta_n=\hat \theta_n(X^{(n)})$ of parameter $\theta$ such that $\sqrt{n}(\hat \theta_n-\theta)$ is sufficiently close in distribution to a mean zero Gaussian random vector in $E,$ we construct a functional $g:E\mapsto {\mathbb R}$ such that $g(\hat \theta_n)$ is an asymptotically normal estimator of $f(\theta)$ with $\sqrt{n}$ rate provided that $s>\frac{1}{1-\alpha}$ and $d\leq n^{\alpha}$ for some $\alpha\in (0,1).$ We also derive general upper bounds on Orlicz norm error rates for estimator $g(\hat \theta)$ depending on smoothness $s,$ dimension $d,$ sample size $n$ and the accuracy of normal approximation of $\sqrt{n}(\hat \theta_n-\theta).$ In particular, this approach yields asymptotically efficient estimators in some high-dimensional exponential models.
We introduce a novel methodology for particle filtering in dynamical systems where the evolution of the signal of interest is described by a SDE and observations are collected instantaneously at prescribed time instants. The new approach includes the discretisation of the SDE and the design of efficient particle filters for the resulting discrete-time state-space model. The discretisation scheme converges with weak order 1 and it is devised to create a sequential dependence structure along the coordinates of the discrete-time state vector. We introduce a class of space-sequential particle filters that exploits this structure to improve performance when the system dimension is large. This is numerically illustrated by a set of computer simulations for a stochastic Lorenz 96 system with additive noise. The new space-sequential particle filters attain approximately constant estimation errors as the dimension of the Lorenz 96 system is increased, with a computational cost that increases polynomially, rather than exponentially, with the system dimension. Besides the new numerical scheme and particle filters, we provide in this paper a general framework for discrete-time filtering in continuous-time dynamical systems described by a SDE and instantaneous observations. Provided that the SDE is discretised using a weakly-convergent scheme, we prove that the marginal posterior laws of the resulting discrete-time state-space model converge to the posterior marginal posterior laws of the original continuous-time state-space model under a suitably defined metric. This result is general and not restricted to the numerical scheme or particle filters specifically studied in this manuscript.
Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal likelihood (model evidence), which is computationally challenging, prohibiting its use in many high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. With Bayesian imaging applications in mind, in this work we present the proximal nested sampling methodology to objectively compare alternative Bayesian imaging models for applications that use images to inform decisions under uncertainty. The methodology is based on nested sampling, a Monte Carlo approach specialised for model comparison, and exploits proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to scale efficiently to large problems and to tackle models that are log-concave and not necessarily smooth (e.g., involving l_1 or total-variation priors). The proposed approach can be applied computationally to problems of dimension O(10^6) and beyond, making it suitable for high-dimensional inverse imaging problems. It is validated on large Gaussian models, for which the likelihood is available analytically, and subsequently illustrated on a range of imaging problems where it is used to analyse different choices of dictionary and measurement model.
One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.
Latent Gaussian models and boosting are widely used techniques in statistics and machine learning. Tree-boosting shows excellent prediction accuracy on many data sets, but potential drawbacks are that it assumes conditional independence of samples, produces discontinuous predictions for, e.g., spatial data, and it can have difficulty with high-cardinality categorical variables. Latent Gaussian models, such as Gaussian process and grouped random effects models, are flexible prior models which explicitly model dependence among samples and which allow for efficient learning of predictor functions and for making probabilistic predictions. However, existing latent Gaussian models usually assume either a zero or a linear prior mean function which can be an unrealistic assumption. This article introduces a novel approach that combines boosting and latent Gaussian models to remedy the above-mentioned drawbacks and to leverage the advantages of both techniques. We obtain increased prediction accuracy compared to existing approaches in both simulated and real-world data experiments.
The conjoining of dynamical systems and deep learning has become a topic of great interest. In particular, neural differential equations (NDEs) demonstrate that neural networks and differential equation are two sides of the same coin. Traditional parameterised differential equations are a special case. Many popular neural network architectures, such as residual networks and recurrent networks, are discretisations. NDEs are suitable for tackling generative problems, dynamical systems, and time series (particularly in physics, finance, ...) and are thus of interest to both modern machine learning and traditional mathematical modelling. NDEs offer high-capacity function approximation, strong priors on model space, the ability to handle irregular data, memory efficiency, and a wealth of available theory on both sides. This doctoral thesis provides an in-depth survey of the field. Topics include: neural ordinary differential equations (e.g. for hybrid neural/mechanistic modelling of physical systems); neural controlled differential equations (e.g. for learning functions of irregular time series); and neural stochastic differential equations (e.g. to produce generative models capable of representing complex stochastic dynamics, or sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions). Further topics include: numerical methods for NDEs (e.g. reversible differential equations solvers, backpropagation through differential equations, Brownian reconstruction); symbolic regression for dynamical systems (e.g. via regularised evolution); and deep implicit models (e.g. deep equilibrium models, differentiable optimisation). We anticipate this thesis will be of interest to anyone interested in the marriage of deep learning with dynamical systems, and hope it will provide a useful reference for the current state of the art.
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