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In this article, the state estimation problems with unknown process noise and measurement noise covariances for both linear and nonlinear systems are considered. By formulating the joint estimation of system state and noise parameters into an optimization problem, a novel adaptive Kalman filter method based on conjugate-computation variational inference, referred to as CVIAKF, is proposed to approximate the joint posterior probability density function of the latent variables. Unlike the existing adaptive Kalman filter methods utilizing variational inference in natural-parameter space, CVIAKF performs optimization in expectation-parameter space, resulting in a faster and simpler solution. Meanwhile, CVIAKF divides optimization objectives into conjugate and non-conjugate parts of nonlinear dynamical models, whereas conjugate computations and stochastic mirror-descent are applied, respectively. Remarkably, the reparameterization trick is used to reduce the variance of stochastic gradients of the non-conjugate parts. The effectiveness of CVIAKF is validated through synthetic and real-world datasets of maneuvering target tracking.

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While there now exists a large literature on policy evaluation and learning, much of prior work assumes that the treatment assignment of one unit does not affect the outcome of another unit. Unfortunately, ignoring interference may lead to biased policy evaluation and ineffective learned policies. For example, treating influential individuals who have many friends can generate positive spillover effects, thereby improving the overall performance of an individualized treatment rule (ITR). We consider the problem of evaluating and learning an optimal ITR under clustered network interference (also known as partial interference) where clusters of units are sampled from a population and units may influence one another within each cluster. Unlike previous methods that impose strong restrictions on spillover effects, the proposed methodology only assumes a semiparametric structural model where each unit's outcome is an additive function of individual treatments within the cluster. Under this model, we propose an estimator that can be used to evaluate the empirical performance of an ITR. We show that this estimator is substantially more efficient than the standard inverse probability weighting estimator, which does not impose any assumption about spillover effects. We derive the finite-sample regret bound for a learned ITR, showing that the use of our efficient evaluation estimator leads to the improved performance of learned policies. Finally, we conduct simulation and empirical studies to illustrate the advantages of the proposed methodology.

In this article, we assess the benefits of coordination and partnerships between governments and private insurers, and provide further evidence for microinsurance products as powerful and cost-effective tools for achieving poverty reduction. To explore these ideas, we model the capital of a household from a ruin-theoretic perspective to measure the impact of microinsurance on poverty dynamics and the governmental cost of social protection. We analyse the model under four frameworks: uninsured, insured (without subsidies), insured with subsidised constant premiums and insured with subsidised flexible premiums. Although insurance alone (without subsidies) may not be sufficient to reduce the likelihood of falling into the area of poverty for specific groups of households, since premium payments constrain their capital growth, our analysis suggests that subsidised schemes can provide maximum social benefits while reducing governmental costs.

High-resolution event data on armed conflict and related processes have revolutionized the study of political contention with datasets like UCDP GED, ACLED etc. However, most of these datasets limit themselves to collecting spatio-temporal (high-resolution) and intensity data. Information on dynamics, such as targets, tactics, purposes etc. are rarely collected owing to the extreme workload of collecting data. However, most datasets rely on a rich corpus of textual data allowing further mining of further information connected to each event. This paper proposes one such approach that is inexpensive and high performance, leveraging active learning - an iterative process of improving a machine learning model based on sequential (guided) human input. Active learning is employed to then step-wise train (fine-tuning) of a large, encoder-only language model adapted for extracting sub-classes of events relating to conflict dynamics. The approach shows performance similar to human (gold-standard) coding while reducing the amount of required human annotation by as much as 99%.

In the rapidly evolving global business landscape, the demand for software has intensified competition among organizations, leading to challenges in retaining highly qualified IT members in software organizations. One of the problems faced by IT organizations is the retention of these strategic professionals, also known as talent. This work presents an actionable framework for Talent Retention (TR) used in IT organizations. It is based on our findings from interviews performed with 21 IT managers. The TR Framework is our main research outcome. Our framework encompasses a set of factors, contextual characteristics, barriers, strategies, and coping mechanisms. Our findings indicated that software engineers can be differentiated from other professional groups, and beyond competitive salaries, other elements for retaining talent in IT organizations should be considered, such as psychological safety, work-life balance, a positive work environment, innovative and challenging projects, and flexible work. A better understanding of factors could guide IT managers in improving talent management processes by addressing Software Engineering challenges, identifying important elements, and exploring strategies at the individual, team, and organizational levels.

In recent years, there has been a lot of research work activity focused on carrying out asymptotic and non-asymptotic convergence analyses for two-timescale actor critic algorithms where the actor updates are performed on a timescale that is slower than that of the critic. In a recent work, the critic-actor algorithm has been presented for the infinite horizon discounted cost setting in the look-up table case where the timescales of the actor and the critic are reversed and asymptotic convergence analysis has been presented. In our work, we present the first critic-actor algorithm with function approximation and in the long-run average reward setting and present the first finite-time (non-asymptotic) analysis of such a scheme. We obtain optimal learning rates and prove that our algorithm achieves a sample complexity of $\mathcal{\tilde{O}}(\epsilon^{-2.08})$ for the mean squared error of the critic to be upper bounded by $\epsilon$ which is better than the one obtained for actor-critic in a similar setting. We also show the results of numerical experiments on three benchmark settings and observe that the critic-actor algorithm competes well with the actor-critic algorithm.

The sequential recommendation problem has attracted considerable research attention in the past few years, leading to the rise of numerous recommendation models. In this work, we explore how Large Language Models (LLMs), which are nowadays introducing disruptive effects in many AI-based applications, can be used to build or improve sequential recommendation approaches. Specifically, we design three orthogonal approaches and hybrids of those to leverage the power of LLMs in different ways. In addition, we investigate the potential of each approach by focusing on its comprising technical aspects and determining an array of alternative choices for each one. We conduct extensive experiments on three datasets and explore a large variety of configurations, including different language models and baseline recommendation models, to obtain a comprehensive picture of the performance of each approach. Among other observations, we highlight that initializing state-of-the-art sequential recommendation models such as BERT4Rec or SASRec with embeddings obtained from an LLM can lead to substantial performance gains in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, we find that fine-tuning an LLM for recommendation tasks enables it to learn not only the tasks, but also concepts of a domain to some extent. We also show that fine-tuning OpenAI GPT leads to considerably better performance than fine-tuning Google PaLM 2. Overall, our extensive experiments indicate a huge potential value of leveraging LLMs in future recommendation approaches. We publicly share the code and data of our experiments to ensure reproducibility.

This paper studies an end-to-end video semantic communication system for massive communication. In the considered system, the transmitter must continuously send the video to the receiver to facilitate character reconstruction in immersive applications, such as interactive video conference. However, transmitting the original video information with substantial amounts of data poses a challenge to the limited wireless resources. To address this issue, we reduce the amount of data transmitted by making the transmitter extract and send the semantic information from the video, which refines the major object and the correlation of time and space in the video. Specifically, we first develop a video semantic communication system based on major object extraction (MOE) and contextual video encoding (CVE) to achieve efficient video transmission. Then, we design the MOE and CVE modules with convolutional neural network based motion estimation, contextual extraction and entropy coding. Simulation results show that compared to the traditional coding schemes, the proposed method can reduce the amount of transmitted data by up to 25% while increasing the peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) of the reconstructed video by up to 14%.

Community management is critical for stakeholders to collaboratively build and sustain communities with socio-technical support. However, most of the existing research has mainly focused on the community members and the platform, with little attention given to the developers who act as intermediaries between the platform and community members and develop tools to support community management. This study focuses on third-party developers (TPDs) for the live streaming platform Twitch and explores their tool development practices. Using a mixed method with in-depth qualitative analysis, we found that TPDs maintain complex relationships with different stakeholders (streamers, viewers, platform, professional developers), and the multi-layered policy restricts their agency regarding idea innovation and tool development. We argue that HCI research should shift its focus from tool users to tool developers with regard to community management. We propose designs to support closer collaboration between TPDS and the platform and professional developers and streamline TPDs' development process with unified toolkits and policy documentation.

Advances in artificial intelligence often stem from the development of new environments that abstract real-world situations into a form where research can be done conveniently. This paper contributes such an environment based on ideas inspired by elementary Microeconomics. Agents learn to produce resources in a spatially complex world, trade them with one another, and consume those that they prefer. We show that the emergent production, consumption, and pricing behaviors respond to environmental conditions in the directions predicted by supply and demand shifts in Microeconomics. We also demonstrate settings where the agents' emergent prices for goods vary over space, reflecting the local abundance of goods. After the price disparities emerge, some agents then discover a niche of transporting goods between regions with different prevailing prices -- a profitable strategy because they can buy goods where they are cheap and sell them where they are expensive. Finally, in a series of ablation experiments, we investigate how choices in the environmental rewards, bartering actions, agent architecture, and ability to consume tradable goods can either aid or inhibit the emergence of this economic behavior. This work is part of the environment development branch of a research program that aims to build human-like artificial general intelligence through multi-agent interactions in simulated societies. By exploring which environment features are needed for the basic phenomena of elementary microeconomics to emerge automatically from learning, we arrive at an environment that differs from those studied in prior multi-agent reinforcement learning work along several dimensions. For example, the model incorporates heterogeneous tastes and physical abilities, and agents negotiate with one another as a grounded form of communication.

The demand for artificial intelligence has grown significantly over the last decade and this growth has been fueled by advances in machine learning techniques and the ability to leverage hardware acceleration. However, in order to increase the quality of predictions and render machine learning solutions feasible for more complex applications, a substantial amount of training data is required. Although small machine learning models can be trained with modest amounts of data, the input for training larger models such as neural networks grows exponentially with the number of parameters. Since the demand for processing training data has outpaced the increase in computation power of computing machinery, there is a need for distributing the machine learning workload across multiple machines, and turning the centralized into a distributed system. These distributed systems present new challenges, first and foremost the efficient parallelization of the training process and the creation of a coherent model. This article provides an extensive overview of the current state-of-the-art in the field by outlining the challenges and opportunities of distributed machine learning over conventional (centralized) machine learning, discussing the techniques used for distributed machine learning, and providing an overview of the systems that are available.

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