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U-statistics play central roles in many statistical learning tools but face the haunting issue of scalability. Significant efforts have been devoted into accelerating computation by U-statistic reduction. However, existing results almost exclusively focus on power analysis, while little work addresses risk control accuracy -- comparatively, the latter requires distinct and much more challenging techniques. In this paper, we establish the first statistical inference procedure with provably higher-order accurate risk control for incomplete U-statistics. The sharpness of our new result enables us to reveal how risk control accuracy also trades off with speed for the first time in literature, which complements the well-known variance-speed trade-off. Our proposed general framework converts the long-standing challenge of formulating accurate statistical inference procedures for many different designs into a surprisingly routine task. This paper covers non-degenerate and degenerate U-statistics, and network moments. We conducted comprehensive numerical studies and observed results that validate our theory's sharpness. Our method also demonstrates effectiveness on real-world data applications.

The Plackett--Luce model is a popular approach for rank data analysis, where a utility vector is employed to determine the probability of each outcome based on Luce's choice axiom. In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic theory of utility vector estimation by maximizing different types of likelihood, such as the full-, marginal-, and quasi-likelihood. We provide a rank-matching interpretation for the estimating equations of these estimators and analyze their asymptotic behavior as the number of items being compared tends to infinity. In particular, we establish the uniform consistency of these estimators under conditions characterized by the topology of the underlying comparison graph sequence and demonstrate that the proposed conditions are sharp for common sampling scenarios such as the nonuniform random hypergraph model and the hypergraph stochastic block model; we also obtain the asymptotic normality of these estimators and discuss the trade-off between statistical efficiency and computational complexity for practical uncertainty quantification. Both results allow for nonuniform and inhomogeneous comparison graphs with varying edge sizes and different asymptotic orders of edge probabilities. We verify our theoretical findings by conducting detailed numerical experiments.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Modern predictive models are often deployed to environments in which computational budgets are dynamic. Anytime algorithms are well-suited to such environments as, at any point during computation, they can output a prediction whose quality is a function of computation time. Early-exit neural networks have garnered attention in the context of anytime computation due to their capability to provide intermediate predictions at various stages throughout the network. However, we demonstrate that current early-exit networks are not directly applicable to anytime settings, as the quality of predictions for individual data points is not guaranteed to improve with longer computation. To address this shortcoming, we propose an elegant post-hoc modification, based on the Product-of-Experts, that encourages an early-exit network to become gradually confident. This gives our deep models the property of conditional monotonicity in the prediction quality -- an essential stepping stone towards truly anytime predictive modeling using early-exit architectures. Our empirical results on standard image-classification tasks demonstrate that such behaviors can be achieved while preserving competitive accuracy on average.

A theoretical particle-number conserving quantum field theory based on the concept of imaginary time is presented and applied to the scenario of a coherent atomic laser field at ultra-cold temperatures. The proposed theoretical model describes the analytical derivation of the frequency comb spectrum for an atomic laser realized from modeling a coherent atomic beam of condensate and non-condensate quantum field components released from a trapped Bose-Einstein condensate at a given repetition phase and frequency. The condensate part of the atomic vapor is assumed to be subjected to thermal noise induced by the temperature of the surrounding thermal atomic cloud. This new quantum approach uses time periodicity and an orthogonal decomposition of the quantum field in a complex-valued quantum field representation to derive and model the quantum field's forward- and backward-propagating components as a standing wave field in the same unique time and temperature domain without quantitative singularities at finite temperatures. The complex-valued atom laser field, the resulting frequency comb, and the repetition frequency distribution with the varying shape of envelopes are numerically monitored within a Monte-Carlo sampling method, as a function of temperature and trap frequency of the external confinement.

When trying to solve a computational problem, we are often faced with a choice between algorithms that are guaranteed to return the right answer but differ in their runtime distributions (e.g., SAT solvers, sorting algorithms). This paper aims to lay theoretical foundations for such choices by formalizing preferences over runtime distributions. It might seem that we should simply prefer the algorithm that minimizes expected runtime. However, such preferences would be driven by exactly how slow our algorithm is on bad inputs, whereas in practice we are typically willing to cut off occasional, sufficiently long runs before they finish. We propose a principled alternative, taking a utility-theoretic approach to characterize the scoring functions that describe preferences over algorithms. These functions depend on the way our value for solving our problem decreases with time and on the distribution from which captimes are drawn. We describe examples of realistic utility functions and show how to leverage a maximum-entropy approach for modeling underspecified captime distributions. Finally, we show how to efficiently estimate an algorithm's expected utility from runtime samples.

Neural networks are powerful functions with widespread use, but the theoretical behaviour of these functions is not fully understood. Creating deep neural networks by stacking many layers has achieved exceptional performance in many applications and contributed to the recent explosion of these methods. Previous works have shown that depth can exponentially increase the expressibility of the network. However, as networks get deeper and deeper, they are more susceptible to becoming degenerate. We observe this degeneracy in the sense that on initialization, inputs tend to become more and more correlated as they travel through the layers of the network. If a network has too many layers, it tends to approximate a (random) constant function, making it effectively incapable of distinguishing between inputs. This seems to affect the training of the network and cause it to perform poorly, as we empirically investigate in this paper. We use a simple algorithm that can accurately predict the level of degeneracy for any given fully connected ReLU network architecture, and demonstrate how the predicted degeneracy relates to training dynamics of the network. We also compare this prediction to predictions derived using infinite width networks.

Measurement error occurs when a set of covariates influencing a response variable are corrupted by noise. This can lead to misleading inference outcomes, particularly in problems where accurately estimating the relationship between covariates and response variables is crucial, such as causal effect estimation. Existing methods for dealing with measurement error often rely on strong assumptions such as knowledge of the error distribution or its variance and availability of replicated measurements of the covariates. We propose a Bayesian Nonparametric Learning framework which is robust to mismeasured covariates, does not require the preceding assumptions, and is able to incorporate prior beliefs about the true error distribution. Our approach gives rise to two methods that are robust to measurement error via different loss functions: one based on the Total Least Squares objective and the other based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). The latter allows for generalisation to non-Gaussian distributed errors and non-linear covariate-response relationships. We provide bounds on the generalisation error using the MMD-loss and showcase the effectiveness of the proposed framework versus prior art in real-world mental health and dietary datasets that contain significant measurement errors.

Recently, the use of deep equilibrium methods has emerged as a new approach for solving imaging and other ill-posed inverse problems. While learned components may be a key factor in the good performance of these methods in practice, a theoretical justification from a regularization point of view is still lacking. In this paper, we address this issue by providing stability and convergence results for the class of equilibrium methods. In addition, we derive convergence rates and stability estimates in the symmetric Bregman distance. We strengthen our results for regularization operators with contractive residuals. Furthermore, we use the presented analysis to gain insight into the practical behavior of these methods, including a lower bound on the performance of the regularized solutions. In addition, we show that the convergence analysis leads to the design of a new type of loss function which has several advantages over previous ones. Numerical simulations are used to support our findings.

Knowledge graphs (KGs), which could provide essential relational information between entities, have been widely utilized in various knowledge-driven applications. Since the overall human knowledge is innumerable that still grows explosively and changes frequently, knowledge construction and update inevitably involve automatic mechanisms with less human supervision, which usually bring in plenty of noises and conflicts to KGs. However, most conventional knowledge representation learning methods assume that all triple facts in existing KGs share the same significance without any noises. To address this problem, we propose a novel confidence-aware knowledge representation learning framework (CKRL), which detects possible noises in KGs while learning knowledge representations with confidence simultaneously. Specifically, we introduce the triple confidence to conventional translation-based methods for knowledge representation learning. To make triple confidence more flexible and universal, we only utilize the internal structural information in KGs, and propose three kinds of triple confidences considering both local and global structural information. In experiments, We evaluate our models on knowledge graph noise detection, knowledge graph completion and triple classification. Experimental results demonstrate that our confidence-aware models achieve significant and consistent improvements on all tasks, which confirms the capability of CKRL modeling confidence with structural information in both KG noise detection and knowledge representation learning.