In the wake of COVID-19, every government huddles to find the best interventions that will reduce the number of infection cases while minimizing the economic impact. However, with many intervention policies available, how should one decide which policy is the best course of action? In this work, we describe an integer programming approach to prescribe intervention plans that optimizes for both the minimal number of daily new cases and economic impact. We present a method to estimate the impact of intervention plans on the number of cases based on historical data. Finally, we demonstrate visualizations and summaries of our empirical analyses on the performance of our model with varying parameters compared to two sets of heuristics.
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Though the method-of-moments implementation of the electric-field integral equation plays an important role in computational electromagnetics, it provides many code-verification challenges due to the different sources of numerical error. In this paper, we provide an approach through which we can apply the method of manufactured solutions to isolate and verify the solution-discretization error. We accomplish this by manufacturing both the surface current and the Green's function. Because the arising equations are poorly conditioned, we reformulate them as a set of constraints for an optimization problem that selects the solution closest to the manufactured solution. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach for cases with and without coding errors.
Probabilistic regression models typically use the Maximum Likelihood Estimation or Cross-Validation to fit parameters. Unfortunately, these methods may give advantage to the solutions that fit observations in average, but they do not pay attention to the coverage and the width of Prediction Intervals. In this paper, we address the question of adjusting and calibrating Prediction Intervals for Gaussian Processes Regression. First we determine the model's parameters by a standard Cross-Validation or Maximum Likelihood Estimation method then we adjust the parameters to assess the optimal type II Coverage Probability to a nominal level. We apply a relaxation method to choose parameters that minimize the Wasserstein distance between the Gaussian distribution of the initial parameters (Cross-Validation or Maximum Likelihood Estimation) and the proposed Gaussian distribution among the set of parameters that achieved the desired Coverage Probability.
Data-driven pricing strategies are becoming increasingly common, where customers are offered a personalized price based on features that are predictive of their valuation of a product. It is desirable for this pricing policy to be simple and interpretable, so it can be verified, checked for fairness, and easily implemented. However, efforts to incorporate machine learning into a pricing framework often lead to complex pricing policies which are not interpretable, resulting in slow adoption in practice. We present a customized, prescriptive tree-based algorithm that distills knowledge from a complex black-box machine learning algorithm, segments customers with similar valuations and prescribes prices in such a way that maximizes revenue while maintaining interpretability. We quantify the regret of a resulting policy and demonstrate its efficacy in applications with both synthetic and real-world datasets.
This paper studies statistical decisions for dynamic treatment assignment problems. Many policies involve dynamics in their treatment assignments where treatments are sequentially assigned to individuals across multiple stages and the effect of treatment at each stage is usually heterogeneous with respect to the prior treatments, past outcomes, and observed covariates. We consider estimating an optimal dynamic treatment rule that guides the optimal treatment assignment for each individual at each stage based on the individual's history. This paper proposes an empirical welfare maximization approach in a dynamic framework. The approach estimates the optimal dynamic treatment rule from panel data taken from an experimental or quasi-experimental study. The paper proposes two estimation methods: one solves the treatment assignment problem at each stage through backward induction, and the other solves the whole dynamic treatment assignment problem simultaneously across all stages. We derive finite-sample upper bounds on the worst-case average welfare-regrets for the proposed methods and show $n^{-1/2}$-minimax convergence rates. We also modify the simultaneous estimation method to incorporate intertemporal budget/capacity constraints.
The free-form deformation model can represent a wide range of non-rigid deformations by manipulating a control point lattice over the image. However, due to a large number of parameters, it is challenging to fit the free-form deformation model directly to the deformed image for deformation estimation because of the complexity of the fitness landscape. In this paper, we cast the registration task as a multi-objective optimization problem (MOP) according to the fact that regions affected by each control point overlap with each other. Specifically, by partitioning the template image into several regions and measuring the similarity of each region independently, multiple objectives are built and deformation estimation can thus be realized by solving the MOP with off-the-shelf multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs). In addition, a coarse-to-fine strategy is realized by image pyramid combined with control point mesh subdivision. Specifically, the optimized candidate solutions of the current image level are inherited by the next level, which increases the ability to deal with large deformation. Also, a post-processing procedure is proposed to generate a single output utilizing the Pareto optimal solutions. Comparative experiments on both synthetic and real-world images show the effectiveness and usefulness of our deformation estimation method.
Off-policy evaluation learns a target policy's value with a historical dataset generated by a different behavior policy. In addition to a point estimate, many applications would benefit significantly from having a confidence interval (CI) that quantifies the uncertainty of the point estimate. In this paper, we propose a novel deeply-debiasing procedure to construct an efficient, robust, and flexible CI on a target policy's value. Our method is justified by theoretical results and numerical experiments. A Python implementation of the proposed procedure is available at //github.com/RunzheStat/D2OPE.
We address the challenge of policy evaluation in real-world applications of reinforcement learning systems where the available historical data is limited due to ethical, practical, or security considerations. This constrained distribution of data samples often leads to biased policy evaluation estimates. To remedy this, we propose that instead of policy evaluation, one should perform policy comparison, i.e. to rank the policies of interest in terms of their value based on available historical data. In addition we present the Limited Data Estimator (LDE) as a simple method for evaluating and comparing policies from a small number of interactions with the environment. According to our theoretical analysis, the LDE is shown to be statistically reliable on policy comparison tasks under mild assumptions on the distribution of the historical data. Additionally, our numerical experiments compare the LDE to other policy evaluation methods on the task of policy ranking and demonstrate its advantage in various settings.
The research direction of identifying acoustic bio-markers of respiratory diseases has received renewed interest following the onset of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we design an approach to COVID-19 diagnostic using crowd-sourced multi-modal data. The data resource, consisting of acoustic signals like cough, breathing, and speech signals, along with the data of symptoms, are recorded using a web-application over a period of ten months. We investigate the use of statistical descriptors of simple time-frequency features for acoustic signals and binary features for the presence of symptoms. Unlike previous works, we primarily focus on the application of simple linear classifiers like logistic regression and support vector machines for acoustic data while decision tree models are employed on the symptoms data. We show that a multi-modal integration of acoustics and symptoms classifiers achieves an area-under-curve (AUC) of 92.40, a significant improvement over any individual modality. Several ablation experiments are also provided which highlight the acoustic and symptom dimensions that are important for the task of COVID-19 diagnostics.
Interacting particle or agent systems that display a rich variety of collection motions are ubiquitous in science and engineering. A fundamental and challenging goal is to understand the link between individual interaction rules and collective behaviors. In this paper, we study the data-driven discovery of distance-based interaction laws in second-order interacting particle systems. We propose a learning approach that models the latent interaction kernel functions as Gaussian processes, which can simultaneously fulfill two inference goals: one is the nonparametric inference of interaction kernel function with the pointwise uncertainty quantification, and the other one is the inference of unknown parameters in the non-collective forces of the system. We formulate learning interaction kernel functions as a statistical inverse problem and provide a detailed analysis of recoverability conditions, establishing that a coercivity condition is sufficient for recoverability. We provide a finite-sample analysis, showing that our posterior mean estimator converges at an optimal rate equal to the one in the classical 1-dimensional Kernel Ridge regression. Numerical results on systems that exhibit different collective behaviors demonstrate efficient learning of our approach from scarce noisy trajectory data.
There is a need for systems to dynamically interact with ageing populations to gather information, monitor health condition and provide support, especially after hospital discharge or at-home settings. Several smart devices have been delivered by digital health, bundled with telemedicine systems, smartphone and other digital services. While such solutions offer personalised data and suggestions, the real disruptive step comes from the interaction of new digital ecosystem, represented by chatbots. Chatbots will play a leading role by embodying the function of a virtual assistant and bridging the gap between patients and clinicians. Powered by AI and machine learning algorithms, chatbots are forecasted to save healthcare costs when used in place of a human or assist them as a preliminary step of helping to assess a condition and providing self-care recommendations. This paper describes integrating chatbots into telemedicine systems intended for elderly patient after their hospital discharge. The paper discusses possible ways to utilise chatbots to assist healthcare providers and support patients with their condition.
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