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We study optimality for the safety-constrained Markov decision process which is the underlying framework for safe reinforcement learning. Specifically, we consider a constrained Markov decision process (with finite states and finite actions) where the goal of the decision maker is to reach a target set while avoiding an unsafe set(s) with certain probabilistic guarantees. Therefore the underlying Markov chain for any control policy will be multichain since by definition there exists a target set and an unsafe set. The decision maker also has to be optimal (with respect to a cost function) while navigating to the target set. This gives rise to a multi-objective optimization problem. We highlight the fact that Bellman's principle of optimality may not hold for constrained Markov decision problems with an underlying multichain structure (as shown by the counterexample due to Haviv. We resolve the counterexample by formulating the aforementioned multi-objective optimization problem as a zero-sum game and thereafter construct an asynchronous value iteration scheme for the Lagrangian (similar to Shapley's algorithm). Finally, we consider the reinforcement learning problem for the same and construct a modified $Q$-learning algorithm for learning the Lagrangian from data. We also provide a lower bound on the number of iterations required for learning the Lagrangian and corresponding error bounds.

The recently introduced independent fluctuating two-ray (IFTR) fading model, consisting of two specular components fluctuating independently plus a diffuse component, has proven to provide an excellent fit to different wireless environments, including the millimeter-wave band. However, the original formulations of the probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of this model are not applicable to all possible values of its defining parameters, and are given in terms of multifold generalized hypergeometric functions, which prevents their widespread use for the derivation of performance metric expressions. In this paper we present a new formulation of the IFTR model as a countable mixture of Gamma distributions which greatly facilitates the performance evaluation for this model in terms of the metrics already known for the much simpler and widely used Nakagami-m fading. Additionally, a closed-form expression is presented for the generalized moment generating function (GMGF), which permits to readily obtain all the moments of the distribution of the model, as well as several relevant performance metrics. Based on these new derivations, the IFTR model is evaluated for the average channel capacity, the outage probability with and without co-channel interference, and the bit error rate (BER), which are verified by Monte Carlo simulations.

Denoising diffusion models have recently emerged as the predominant paradigm for generative modelling. Their extension to Riemannian manifolds has facilitated their application to an array of problems in the natural sciences. Yet, in many practical settings, such manifolds are defined by a set of constraints and are not covered by the existing (Riemannian) diffusion model methodology. Recent work has attempted to address this issue by employing novel noising processes based on logarithmic barrier methods or reflected Brownian motions. However, the associated samplers are computationally burdensome as the complexity of the constraints increases. In this paper, we introduce an alternative simple noising scheme based on Metropolis sampling that affords substantial gains in computational efficiency and empirical performance compared to the earlier samplers. Of independent interest, we prove that this new process corresponds to a valid discretisation of the reflected Brownian motion. We demonstrate the scalability and flexibility of our approach on a range of problem settings with convex and non-convex constraints, including applications from geospatial modelling, robotics and protein design.

We propose a simple and efficient approach to generate a prediction intervals (PI) for approximated and forecasted trends. Our method leverages a weighted asymmetric loss function to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the PI, with the weights determined by its coverage probability. We provide a concise mathematical proof of the method, show how it can be extended to derive PIs for parametrised functions and argue why the method works for predicting PIs of dependent variables. The presented tests of the method on a real-world forecasting task using a neural network-based model show that it can produce reliable PIs in complex machine learning scenarios.

We prove a characterization of the structural conditions on matrices of sign-rank 3 and unit disk graphs (UDGs) which permit constant-cost public-coin randomized communication protocols. Therefore, under these conditions, these graphs also admit implicit representations. The sign-rank of a matrix $M \in \{\pm 1\}^{N \times N}$ is the smallest rank of a matrix $R$ such that $M_{i,j} = \mathrm{sign}(R_{i,j})$ for all $i,j \in [N]$; equivalently, it is the smallest dimension $d$ in which $M$ can be represented as a point-halfspace incidence matrix with halfspaces through the origin, and it is essentially equivalent to the unbounded-error communication complexity. Matrices of sign-rank 3 can achieve the maximum possible bounded-error randomized communication complexity $\Theta(\log N)$, and meanwhile the existence of implicit representations for graphs of bounded sign-rank (including UDGs, which have sign-rank 4) has been open since at least 2003. We prove that matrices of sign-rank 3, and UDGs, have constant randomized communication complexity if and only if they do not encode arbitrarily large instances of the Greater-Than communication problem, or, equivalently, if they do not contain arbitrarily large half-graphs as semi-induced subgraphs. This also establishes the existence of implicit representations for these graphs under the same conditions.

In studies ranging from clinical medicine to policy research, complete data are usually available from a population $\mathscr{P}$, but the quantity of interest is often sought for a related but different population $\mathscr{Q}$ which only has partial data. In this paper, we consider the setting that both outcome $Y$ and covariate ${\bf X}$ are available from $\mathscr{P}$ whereas only ${\bf X}$ is available from $\mathscr{Q}$, under the so-called label shift assumption, i.e., the conditional distribution of ${\bf X}$ given $Y$ remains the same across the two populations. To estimate the parameter of interest in $\mathscr{Q}$ via leveraging the information from $\mathscr{P}$, the following three ingredients are essential: (a) the common conditional distribution of ${\bf X}$ given $Y$, (b) the regression model of $Y$ given ${\bf X}$ in $\mathscr{P}$, and (c) the density ratio of $Y$ between the two populations. We propose an estimation procedure that only needs standard nonparametric technique to approximate the conditional expectations with respect to (a), while by no means needs an estimate or model for (b) or (c); i.e., doubly flexible to the possible model misspecifications of both (b) and (c). This is conceptually different from the well-known doubly robust estimation in that, double robustness allows at most one model to be misspecified whereas our proposal can allow both (b) and (c) to be misspecified. This is of particular interest in our setting because estimating (c) is difficult, if not impossible, by virtue of the absence of the $Y$-data in $\mathscr{Q}$. Furthermore, even though the estimation of (b) is sometimes off-the-shelf, it can face curse of dimensionality or computational challenges. We develop the large sample theory for the proposed estimator, and examine its finite-sample performance through simulation studies as well as an application to the MIMIC-III database.

We consider Bayesian linear regression with sparsity-inducing prior and design efficient sampling algorithms leveraging posterior contraction properties. A quasi-likelihood with Gaussian spike-and-slab (that is favorable both statistically and computationally) is investigated and two algorithms based on Gibbs sampling and Stochastic Localization are analyzed, both under the same (quite natural) statistical assumptions that also enable valid inference on the sparse planted signal. The benefit of the Stochastic Localization sampler is particularly prominent for data matrix that is not well-designed.

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are directed graphs in which there is no path from a vertex to itself. DAGs are an omnipresent data structure in computer science and the problem of counting the DAGs of given number of vertices and to sample them uniformly at random has been solved respectively in the 70's and the 00's. In this paper, we propose to explore a new variation of this model where DAGs are endowed with an independent ordering of the out-edges of each vertex, thus allowing to model a wide range of existing data structures. We provide efficient algorithms for sampling objects of this new class, both with or without control on the number of edges, and obtain an asymptotic equivalent of their number. We also show the applicability of our method by providing an effective algorithm for the random generation of classical labelled DAGs with a prescribed number of vertices and edges, based on a similar approach. This is the first known algorithm for sampling labelled DAGs with full control on the number of edges, and it meets a need in terms of applications, that had already been acknowledged in the literature.

We prove that it is NP-hard to properly PAC learn decision trees with queries, resolving a longstanding open problem in learning theory (Bshouty 1993; Guijarro-Lavin-Raghavan 1999; Mehta-Raghavan 2002; Feldman 2016). While there has been a long line of work, dating back to (Pitt-Valiant 1988), establishing the hardness of properly learning decision trees from random examples, the more challenging setting of query learners necessitates different techniques and there were no previous lower bounds. En route to our main result, we simplify and strengthen the best known lower bounds for a different problem of Decision Tree Minimization (Zantema-Bodlaender 2000; Sieling 2003). On a technical level, we introduce the notion of hardness distillation, which we study for decision tree complexity but can be considered for any complexity measure: for a function that requires large decision trees, we give a general method for identifying a small set of inputs that is responsible for its complexity. Our technique even rules out query learners that are allowed constant error. This contrasts with existing lower bounds for the setting of random examples which only hold for inverse-polynomial error. Our result, taken together with a recent almost-polynomial time query algorithm for properly learning decision trees under the uniform distribution (Blanc-Lange-Qiao-Tan 2022), demonstrates the dramatic impact of distributional assumptions on the problem.

Modeling multivariate time series has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including economics, finance, and traffic. A basic assumption behind multivariate time series forecasting is that its variables depend on one another but, upon looking closely, it is fair to say that existing methods fail to fully exploit latent spatial dependencies between pairs of variables. In recent years, meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown high capability in handling relational dependencies. GNNs require well-defined graph structures for information propagation which means they cannot be applied directly for multivariate time series where the dependencies are not known in advance. In this paper, we propose a general graph neural network framework designed specifically for multivariate time series data. Our approach automatically extracts the uni-directed relations among variables through a graph learning module, into which external knowledge like variable attributes can be easily integrated. A novel mix-hop propagation layer and a dilated inception layer are further proposed to capture the spatial and temporal dependencies within the time series. The graph learning, graph convolution, and temporal convolution modules are jointly learned in an end-to-end framework. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods on 3 of 4 benchmark datasets and achieves on-par performance with other approaches on two traffic datasets which provide extra structural information.