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We establish the minimax risk for parameter estimation in sparse high-dimensional Gaussian mixture models and show that a constrained maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) achieves the minimax optimality. However, the optimization-based constrained MLE is computationally intractable due to non-convexity of the problem. Therefore, we propose a Bayesian approach to estimate high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures whose cluster centers exhibit sparsity using a continuous spike-and-slab prior, and prove that the posterior contraction rate of the proposed Bayesian method is minimax optimal. The mis-clustering rate is obtained as a by-product using tools from matrix perturbation theory. Computationally, posterior inference of the proposed Bayesian method can be implemented via an efficient Gibbs sampler with data augmentation, circumventing the challenging frequentist nonconvex optimization-based algorithms. The proposed Bayesian sparse Gaussian mixture model does not require pre-specifying the number of clusters, which is allowed to grow with the sample size and can be adaptively estimated via posterior inference. The validity and usefulness of the proposed method is demonstrated through simulation studies and the analysis of a real-world single-cell RNA sequencing dataset.

A time-varying zero-inflated serially dependent Poisson process is proposed. The model assumes that the intensity of the Poisson Process evolves according to a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) formulation. The proposed model is a generalization of the zero-inflated Poisson Integer GARCH model proposed by Fukang Zhu in 2012, which in return is a generalization of the Integer GARCH (INGARCH) model introduced by Ferland, Latour, and Oraichi in 2006. The proposed model builds on previous work by allowing the zero-inflation parameter to vary over time, governed by a deterministic function or by an exogenous variable. Both the Expectation Maximization (EM) and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approaches are presented as possible estimation methods. A simulation study shows that both parameter estimation methods provide good estimates. Applications to two real-life data sets show that the proposed INGARCH model provides a better fit than the traditional zero-inflated INGARCH model in the cases considered.

This paper first strictly proved that the growth of the second moment of a large class of Gaussian processes is not greater than power function and the covariance matrix is strictly positive definite. Under these two conditions, the maximum likelihood estimators of the mean and variance of such classes of drift Gaussian process have strong consistency under broader growth of t_n. At the same time, the asymptotic normality of binary random vectors and the Berry-Ess\'{e}en bound of estimators are obtained by using the Stein's method via Malliavian calculus.

Techniques of hybridisation and ensemble learning are popular model fusion techniques for improving the predictive power of forecasting methods. With limited research that instigates combining these two promising approaches, this paper focuses on the utility of the Exponential-Smoothing-Recurrent Neural Network (ES-RNN) in the pool of base models for different ensembles. We compare against some state of the art ensembling techniques and arithmetic model averaging as a benchmark. We experiment with the M4 forecasting data set of 100,000 time-series, and the results show that the Feature-based Forecast Model Averaging (FFORMA), on average, is the best technique for late data fusion with the ES-RNN. However, considering the M4's Daily subset of data, stacking was the only successful ensemble at dealing with the case where all base model performances are similar. Our experimental results indicate that we attain state of the art forecasting results compared to N-BEATS as a benchmark. We conclude that model averaging is a more robust ensemble than model selection and stacking strategies. Further, the results show that gradient boosting is superior for implementing ensemble learning strategies.

In this work, we consider the task of improving the accuracy of dynamic models for model predictive control (MPC) in an online setting. Even though prediction models can be learned and applied to model-based controllers, these models are often learned offline. In this offline setting, training data is first collected and a prediction model is learned through an elaborated training procedure. After the model is trained to a desired accuracy, it is then deployed in a model predictive controller. However, since the model is learned offline, it does not adapt to disturbances or model errors observed during deployment. To improve the adaptiveness of the model and the controller, we propose an online dynamics learning framework that continually improves the accuracy of the dynamic model during deployment. We adopt knowledge-based neural ordinary differential equations (KNODE) as the dynamic models, and use techniques inspired by transfer learning to continually improve the model accuracy. We demonstrate the efficacy of our framework with a quadrotor robot, and verify the framework in both simulations and physical experiments. Results show that the proposed approach is able to account for disturbances that are possibly time-varying, while maintaining good trajectory tracking performance.

We study a class of fully-discrete schemes for the numerical approximation of solutions of stochastic Cahn--Hilliard equations with cubic nonlinearity and driven by additive noise. The spatial (resp. temporal) discretization is performed with a spectral Galerkin method (resp. a tamed exponential Euler method). We consider two situations: space-time white noise in dimension $d=1$ and trace-class noise in dimensions $d=1,2,3$. In both situations, we prove weak error estimates, where the weak order of convergence is twice the strong order of convergence with respect to the spatial and temporal discretization parameters. To prove these results, we show appropriate regularity estimates for solutions of the Kolmogorov equation associated with the stochastic Cahn--Hilliard equation, which have not been established previously and may be of interest in other contexts.

Propensity score weighting is widely used to improve the representativeness and correct the selection bias in the voluntary sample. The propensity score is often developed using a model for the sampling probability, which can be subject to model misspecification. In this paper, we consider an alternative approach of estimating the inverse of the propensity scores using the density ratio function satisfying the self-efficiency condition. The smoothed density ratio function is obtained by the solution to the information projection onto the space satisfying the moment conditions on the balancing scores. By including the covariates for the outcome regression models only in the density ratio model, we can achieve efficient propensity score estimation. Penalized regression is used to identify important covariates. We further extend the proposed approach to the multivariate missing case. Some limited simulation studies are presented to compare with the existing methods.

Measurement error in the covariate of main interest (e.g. the exposure variable, or the risk factor) is common in epidemiologic and health studies. It can effect the relative risk estimator or other types of coefficients derived from the fitted regression model. In order to perform a measurement error analysis, one needs information about the error structure. Two sources of validation data are an internal subset of the main data, and external or independent study. For the both sources, the true covariate is measured (that is, without error), or alternatively, its surrogate, which is error-prone covariate, is measured several times (repeated measures). This paper compares the precision in estimation via the different validation sources in the Cox model with a changepoint in the main covariate, using the bias correction methods RC and RR. The theoretical properties under each validation source is presented. In a simulation study it is found that the best validation source in terms of smaller mean square error and narrower confidence interval is the internal validation with measure of the true covariate in a common disease case, and the external validation with repeated measures of the surrogate for a rare disease case. In addition, it is found that addressing the correlation between the true covariate and its surrogate, and the value of the changepoint, is needed, especially in the rare disease case.

Asymmetry along with heteroscedasticity or contamination often occurs with the growth of data dimensionality. In ultra-high dimensional data analysis, such irregular settings are usually overlooked for both theoretical and computational convenience. In this paper, we establish a framework for estimation in high-dimensional regression models using Penalized Robust Approximated quadratic M-estimators (PRAM). This framework allows general settings such as random errors lack of symmetry and homogeneity, or the covariates are not sub-Gaussian. To reduce the possible bias caused by the data's irregularity in mean regression, PRAM adopts a loss function with a flexible robustness parameter growing with the sample size. Theoretically, we first show that, in the ultra-high dimension setting, PRAM estimators have local estimation consistency at the minimax rate enjoyed by the LS-Lasso. Then we show that PRAM with an appropriate non-convex penalty in fact agrees with the local oracle solution, and thus obtain its oracle property. Computationally, we demonstrate the performances of six PRAM estimators using three types of loss functions for approximation (Huber, Tukey's biweight and Cauchy loss) combined with two types of penalty functions (Lasso and MCP). Our simulation studies and real data analysis demonstrate satisfactory finite sample performances of the PRAM estimator under general irregular settings.

Image segmentation is still an open problem especially when intensities of the interested objects are overlapped due to the presence of intensity inhomogeneity (also known as bias field). To segment images with intensity inhomogeneities, a bias correction embedded level set model is proposed where Inhomogeneities are Estimated by Orthogonal Primary Functions (IEOPF). In the proposed model, the smoothly varying bias is estimated by a linear combination of a given set of orthogonal primary functions. An inhomogeneous intensity clustering energy is then defined and membership functions of the clusters described by the level set function are introduced to rewrite the energy as a data term of the proposed model. Similar to popular level set methods, a regularization term and an arc length term are also included to regularize and smooth the level set function, respectively. The proposed model is then extended to multichannel and multiphase patterns to segment colourful images and images with multiple objects, respectively. It has been extensively tested on both synthetic and real images that are widely used in the literature and public BrainWeb and IBSR datasets. Experimental results and comparison with state-of-the-art methods demonstrate that advantages of the proposed model in terms of bias correction and segmentation accuracy.