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Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble of forecasts. This is done by running many physics-based simulations under different conditions, which is a computationally costly process. We propose to amortize the computational cost by emulating these forecasts with deep generative diffusion models learned from historical data. The learned models are highly scalable with respect to high-performance computing accelerators and can sample hundreds to tens of thousands of realistic weather forecasts at low cost. When designed to emulate operational ensemble forecasts, the generated ones are similar to physics-based ensembles in important statistical properties and predictive skill. When designed to correct biases present in the operational forecasting system, the generated ensembles show improved probabilistic forecast metrics. They are more reliable and forecast probabilities of extreme weather events more accurately. While this work demonstrates the utility of the methodology by focusing on weather forecasting, the generative artificial intelligence methodology can be extended for uncertainty quantification in climate modeling, where we believe the generation of very large ensembles of climate projections will play an increasingly important role in climate risk assessment.

The central limit theorem is one of the most fundamental results in probability and has been successfully extended to locally dependent data and strongly-mixing random fields. In this paper, we establish its rate of convergence for transport distances, namely for arbitrary $p\ge1$ we obtain an upper bound for the Wasserstein-$p$ distance for locally dependent random variables and strongly mixing stationary random fields. Our proofs adapt the Stein dependency neighborhood method to the Wasserstein-$p$ distance and as a by-product we establish high-order local expansions of the Stein equation for dependent random variables. Finally, we demonstrate how our results can be used to obtain tail bounds that are asymptotically tight, and decrease polynomially fast, for the empirical average of weakly dependent random variables.

Traditional approaches for manipulation planning rely on an explicit geometric model of the environment to formulate a given task as an optimization problem. However, inferring an accurate model from raw sensor input is a hard problem in itself, in particular for articulated objects (e.g., closets, drawers). In this paper, we propose a Neural Field Representation (NFR) of articulated objects that enables manipulation planning directly from images. Specifically, after taking a few pictures of a new articulated object, we can forward simulate its possible movements, and, therefore, use this neural model directly for planning with trajectory optimization. Additionally, this representation can be used for shape reconstruction, semantic segmentation and image rendering, which provides a strong supervision signal during training and generalization. We show that our model, which was trained only on synthetic images, is able to extract a meaningful representation for unseen objects of the same class, both in simulation and with real images. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the representation enables robotic manipulation of an articulated object in the real world directly from images.

To plan the trajectories of a large and heterogeneous swarm, sequential or synchronous distributed methods usually become intractable, due to the lack of global connectivity and clock synchronization, Moreover, the existing asynchronously distributed schemes usually require recheck-like mechanisms instead of inherently considering the other' moving tendency. To this end, we propose a novel asynchronous protocol to allocate the agents' derivable space in a distributed way, by which each agent can replan trajectory depending on its own timetable. Properties such as collision avoidance and recursive feasibility are theoretically shown and a lower bound of protocol updating is provided. Comprehensive simulations and comparisons with five state-of-the-art methods validate the effectiveness of our method and illustrate the improvement in both the completion time and the moving distance. Finally, hardware experiments are carried out, where 8 heterogeneous unmanned ground vehicles with onboard computation navigate in cluttered scenarios at a high agility.

Several prior studies have suggested that word frequency biases can cause the Bert model to learn indistinguishable sentence embeddings. Contrastive learning schemes such as SimCSE and ConSERT have already been adopted successfully in unsupervised sentence embedding to improve the quality of embeddings by reducing this bias. However, these methods still introduce new biases such as sentence length bias and false negative sample bias, that hinders model's ability to learn more fine-grained semantics. In this paper, we reexamine the challenges of contrastive sentence embedding learning from a debiasing perspective and argue that effectively eliminating the influence of various biases is crucial for learning high-quality sentence embeddings. We think all those biases are introduced by simple rules for constructing training data in contrastive learning and the key for contrastive learning sentence embedding is to mimic the distribution of training data in supervised machine learning in unsupervised way. We propose a novel contrastive framework for sentence embedding, termed DebCSE, which can eliminate the impact of these biases by an inverse propensity weighted sampling method to select high-quality positive and negative pairs according to both the surface and semantic similarity between sentences. Extensive experiments on semantic textual similarity (STS) benchmarks reveal that DebCSE significantly outperforms the latest state-of-the-art models with an average Spearman's correlation coefficient of 80.33% on BERTbase.

The assumption of no unmeasured confounders is a critical but unverifiable assumption required for causal inference yet quantitative sensitivity analyses to assess robustness of real-world evidence remains underutilized. The lack of use is likely in part due to complexity of implementation and often specific and restrictive data requirements required for application of each method. With the advent of sensitivity analyses methods that are broadly applicable in that they do not require identification of a specific unmeasured confounder, along with publicly available code for implementation, roadblocks toward broader use are decreasing. To spur greater application, here we present a best practice guidance to address the potential for unmeasured confounding at both the design and analysis stages, including a set of framing questions and an analytic toolbox for researchers. The questions at the design stage guide the research through steps evaluating the potential robustness of the design while encouraging gathering of additional data to reduce uncertainty due to potential confounding. At the analysis stage, the questions guide researchers to quantifying the robustness of the observed result and providing researchers with a clearer indication of the robustness of their conclusions. We demonstrate the application of the guidance using simulated data based on a real-world fibromyalgia study, applying multiple methods from our analytic toolbox for illustration purposes.

Vision and Language Models (VLMs), such as CLIP, have enabled visual recognition of a potentially unlimited set of categories described by text prompts. However, for the best visual recognition performance, these models still require tuning to better fit the data distributions of the downstream tasks, in order to overcome the domain shift from the web-based pre-training data. Recently, it has been shown that it is possible to effectively tune VLMs without any paired data, and in particular to effectively improve VLMs visual recognition performance using text-only training data generated by Large Language Models (LLMs). In this paper, we dive deeper into this exciting text-only VLM training approach and explore ways it can be significantly further improved taking the specifics of the downstream task into account when sampling text data from LLMs. In particular, compared to the SOTA text-only VLM training approach, we demonstrate up to 8.4% performance improvement in (cross) domain-specific adaptation, up to 8.7% improvement in fine-grained recognition, and 3.1% overall average improvement in zero-shot classification compared to strong baselines.

Quality Diversity (QD) algorithms have been proposed to search for a large collection of both diverse and high-performing solutions instead of a single set of local optima. While early QD algorithms view the objective and descriptor functions as black-box functions, novel tools have been introduced to use gradient information to accelerate the search and improve overall performance of those algorithms over continuous input spaces. However a broad range of applications involve discrete spaces, such as drug discovery or image generation. Exploring those spaces is challenging as they are combinatorially large and gradients cannot be used in the same manner as in continuous spaces. We introduce map-elites with a Gradient-Informed Discrete Emitter (ME-GIDE), which extends QD optimisation with differentiable functions over discrete search spaces. ME-GIDE leverages the gradient information of the objective and descriptor functions with respect to its discrete inputs to propose gradient-informed updates that guide the search towards a diverse set of high quality solutions. We evaluate our method on challenging benchmarks including protein design and discrete latent space illumination and find that our method outperforms state-of-the-art QD algorithms in all benchmarks.

While it is nearly effortless for humans to quickly assess the perceptual similarity between two images, the underlying processes are thought to be quite complex. Despite this, the most widely used perceptual metrics today, such as PSNR and SSIM, are simple, shallow functions, and fail to account for many nuances of human perception. Recently, the deep learning community has found that features of the VGG network trained on the ImageNet classification task has been remarkably useful as a training loss for image synthesis. But how perceptual are these so-called "perceptual losses"? What elements are critical for their success? To answer these questions, we introduce a new Full Reference Image Quality Assessment (FR-IQA) dataset of perceptual human judgments, orders of magnitude larger than previous datasets. We systematically evaluate deep features across different architectures and tasks and compare them with classic metrics. We find that deep features outperform all previous metrics by huge margins. More surprisingly, this result is not restricted to ImageNet-trained VGG features, but holds across different deep architectures and levels of supervision (supervised, self-supervised, or even unsupervised). Our results suggest that perceptual similarity is an emergent property shared across deep visual representations.