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We analyze the problem of simultaneous support recovery and estimation of the coefficient vector ($\beta^*$) in a linear model with independent and identically distributed Normal errors. We apply the penalised least square estimator of $\beta^*$ based on non-linear penalties of stochastic gates (STG) [YLNK20] to estimate the coefficients. Considering Gaussian design matrices we show that under reasonable conditions on dimension and sparsity of $\beta^*$ the STG based estimator converges to the true data generating coefficient vector and also detects its support set with high probability. We propose a new projection based algorithm for the linear models setup to improve upon the existing STG estimator that was originally designed for general non-linear models. Our new procedure outperforms many classical estimators for sparse support recovery in synthetic data analysis.

In this work, we aim to provide a new and efficient recursive detection method for temporarily monitored signals. Motivated by the case of the propagation of an event through a field of sensors, we postulated that the change in the statistical properties in the monitored signals can only be temporary. Unfortunately, to our best knowledge, existing recursive and simple detection techniques such as the ones based on the cumulative sum (CUSUM) do not consider the temporary aspect of the change in a multivariate time series. In this paper, we propose a novel simple and efficient sequential detection algorithm, named Temporary-Event-CUSUM (TE-CUSUM). Combined with a new adaptive way to aggregate local CUSUM variables from each data stream, we empirically show that the TE-CUSUM has a very good detection rate in the case of an event passing through a field of sensors in a very noisy environment.

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general wrapper that can be combined with any black box method that produces point predictions of the unseen label or estimated quantiles of its distribution. While previous conformal inference methods rely on the assumption that the data points are exchangeable, our adaptive approach provably achieves the desired coverage frequency over long-time intervals irrespective of the true data generating process. We accomplish this by modelling the distribution shift as a learning problem in a single parameter whose optimal value is varying over time and must be continuously re-estimated. We test our method, adaptive conformal inference, on two real world datasets and find that its predictions are robust to visible and significant distribution shifts.

Low-rank matrix models have been universally useful for numerous applications starting from classical system identification to more modern matrix completion in signal processing and statistics. The nuclear norm has been employed as a convex surrogate of the low-rankness since it induces a low-rank solution to inverse problems. While the nuclear norm for low-rankness has a nice analogy with the $\ell_1$ norm for sparsity through the singular value decomposition, other matrix norms also induce low-rankness. Particularly as one interprets a matrix as a linear operator between Banach spaces, various tensor product norms generalize the role of the nuclear norm. We provide a tensor-norm-constrained estimator for recovery of approximately low-rank matrices from local measurements corrupted with noise. A tensor-norm regulizer is designed adapting to the local structure. We derive statistical analysis of the estimator over matrix completion and decentralized sketching through applying Maurey's empirical method to tensor products of Banach spaces. The estimator provides a near optimal error bound in a minimax sense and admits a polynomial-time algorithm for these applications.

We consider the problem of testing for long-range dependence for time-varying coefficient regression models. The covariates and errors are assumed to be locally stationary, which allows complex temporal dynamics and heteroscedasticity. We develop KPSS, R/S, V/S, and K/S-type statistics based on the nonparametric residuals, and propose bootstrap approaches equipped with a difference-based long-run covariance matrix estimator for practical implementation. Under the null hypothesis, the local alternatives as well as the fixed alternatives, we derive the limiting distributions of the test statistics, establish the uniform consistency of the difference-based long-run covariance estimator, and justify the bootstrap algorithms theoretically. In particular, the exact local asymptotic power of our testing procedure enjoys the order $O( \log^{-1} n)$, the same as that of the classical KPSS test for long memory in strictly stationary series without covariates. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our tests by extensive simulation studies. The proposed tests are applied to a COVID-19 dataset in favor of long-range dependence in the cumulative confirmed series of COVID-19 in several countries, and to the Hong Kong circulatory and respiratory dataset, identifying a new type of 'spurious long memory'.

Quantile (and, more generally, KL) regret bounds, such as those achieved by NormalHedge (Chaudhuri, Freund, and Hsu 2009) and its variants, relax the goal of competing against the best individual expert to only competing against a majority of experts on adversarial data. More recently, the semi-adversarial paradigm (Bilodeau, Negrea, and Roy 2020) provides an alternative relaxation of adversarial online learning by considering data that may be neither fully adversarial nor stochastic (i.i.d.). We achieve the minimax optimal regret in both paradigms using FTRL with separate, novel, root-logarithmic regularizers, both of which can be interpreted as yielding variants of NormalHedge. We extend existing KL regret upper bounds, which hold uniformly over target distributions, to possibly uncountable expert classes with arbitrary priors; provide the first full-information lower bounds for quantile regret on finite expert classes (which are tight); and provide an adaptively minimax optimal algorithm for the semi-adversarial paradigm that adapts to the true, unknown constraint faster, leading to uniformly improved regret bounds over existing methods.

In data analysis problems where we are not able to rely on distributional assumptions, what types of inference guarantees can still be obtained? Many popular methods, such as holdout methods, cross-validation methods, and conformal prediction, are able to provide distribution-free guarantees for predictive inference, but the problem of providing inference for the underlying regression function (for example, inference on the conditional mean $\mathbb{E}[Y|X]$) is more challenging. In the setting where the features $X$ are continuously distributed, recent work has established that any confidence interval for $\mathbb{E}[Y|X]$ must have non-vanishing width, even as sample size tends to infinity. At the other extreme, if $X$ takes only a small number of possible values, then inference on $\mathbb{E}[Y|X]$ is trivial to achieve. In this work, we study the problem in settings in between these two extremes. We find that there are several distinct regimes in between the finite setting and the continuous setting, where vanishing-width confidence intervals are achievable if and only if the effective support size of the distribution of $X$ is smaller than the square of the sample size.

This paper presents an efficient reversible algorithm for linear regression, both with and without ridge regression. Our reversible algorithm matches the asymptotic time and space complexity of standard irreversible algorithms for this problem. Needed for this result is the expansion of the analysis of efficient reversible matrix multiplication to rectangular matrices and matrix inversion.

The autoregressive process is one of the fundamental and most important models that analyze a time series. Theoretical results and practical tools for fitting an autoregressive process with i.i.d. innovations are well-established. However, when the innovations are white noise but not i.i.d., those tools fail to generate a consistent confidence interval for the autoregressive coefficients. Focus on an autoregressive process with \textit{dependent} and \textit{non-stationary} innovations, this paper provides a consistent result and a Gaussian approximation theorem for the Yule-Walker estimator. Moreover, it introduces the second order wild bootstrap that constructs a consistent confidence interval for the estimator. Numerical experiments confirm the validity of the proposed algorithm with different kinds of white noise innovations. Meanwhile, the classical method(e.g., AR(Sieve) bootstrap) fails to generate a correct confidence interval when the innovations are dependent. According to Kreiss et al. \cite{10.1214/11-AOS900} and the Wold decomposition, assuming a real-life time series satisfies an autoregressive process is reasonable. However, innovations in that process are more likely to be white noises instead of i.i.d.. Therefore, our method should provide a practical tool that handles real-life problems.

Many problems on signal processing reduce to nonparametric function estimation. We propose a new methodology, piecewise convex fitting (PCF), and give a two-stage adaptive estimate. In the first stage, the number and location of the change points is estimated using strong smoothing. In the second stage, a constrained smoothing spline fit is performed with the smoothing level chosen to minimize the MSE. The imposed constraint is that a single change point occurs in a region about each empirical change point of the first-stage estimate. This constraint is equivalent to requiring that the third derivative of the second-stage estimate has a single sign in a small neighborhood about each first-stage change point. We sketch how PCF may be applied to signal recovery, instantaneous frequency estimation, surface reconstruction, image segmentation, spectral estimation and multivariate adaptive regression.