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This paper focuses on parameter estimation and introduces a new method for lower bounding the Bayesian risk. The method allows for the use of virtually \emph{any} information measure, including R\'enyi's $\alpha$, $\varphi$-Divergences, and Sibson's $\alpha$-Mutual Information. The approach considers divergences as functionals of measures and exploits the duality between spaces of measures and spaces of functions. In particular, we show that one can lower bound the risk with any information measure by upper bounding its dual via Markov's inequality. We are thus able to provide estimator-independent impossibility results thanks to the Data-Processing Inequalities that divergences satisfy. The results are then applied to settings of interest involving both discrete and continuous parameters, including the ``Hide-and-Seek'' problem, and compared to the state-of-the-art techniques. An important observation is that the behaviour of the lower bound in the number of samples is influenced by the choice of the information measure. We leverage this by introducing a new divergence inspired by the ``Hockey-Stick'' Divergence, which is demonstrated empirically to provide the largest lower-bound across all considered settings. If the observations are subject to privatisation, stronger impossibility results can be obtained via Strong Data-Processing Inequalities. The paper also discusses some generalisations and alternative directions.

Negative control is a strategy for learning the causal relationship between treatment and outcome in the presence of unmeasured confounding. The treatment effect can nonetheless be identified if two auxiliary variables are available: a negative control treatment (which has no effect on the actual outcome), and a negative control outcome (which is not affected by the actual treatment). These auxiliary variables can also be viewed as proxies for a traditional set of control variables, and they bear resemblance to instrumental variables. I propose a family of algorithms based on kernel ridge regression for learning nonparametric treatment effects with negative controls. Examples include dose response curves, dose response curves with distribution shift, and heterogeneous treatment effects. Data may be discrete or continuous, and low, high, or infinite dimensional. I prove uniform consistency and provide finite sample rates of convergence. I estimate the dose response curve of cigarette smoking on infant birth weight adjusting for unobserved confounding due to household income, using a data set of singleton births in the state of Pennsylvania between 1989 and 1991.

This paper focuses on parameter estimation and introduces a new method for lower bounding the Bayesian risk. The method allows for the use of virtually \emph{any} information measure, including R\'enyi's $\alpha$, $\varphi$-Divergences, and Sibson's $\alpha$-Mutual Information. The approach considers divergences as functionals of measures and exploits the duality between spaces of measures and spaces of functions. In particular, we show that one can lower bound the risk with any information measure by upper bounding its dual via Markov's inequality. We are thus able to provide estimator-independent impossibility results thanks to the Data-Processing Inequalities that divergences satisfy. The results are then applied to settings of interest involving both discrete and continuous parameters, including the ``Hide-and-Seek'' problem, and compared to the state-of-the-art techniques. An important observation is that the behaviour of the lower bound in the number of samples is influenced by the choice of the information measure. We leverage this by introducing a new divergence inspired by the ``Hockey-Stick'' Divergence, which is demonstrated empirically to provide the largest lower-bound across all considered settings. If the observations are subject to privatisation, stronger impossibility results can be obtained via Strong Data-Processing Inequalities. The paper also discusses some generalisations and alternative directions.

This paper addresses the problem of constrained multi-objective optimization over black-box objective functions with practitioner-specified preferences over the objectives when a large fraction of the input space is infeasible (i.e., violates constraints). This problem arises in many engineering design problems including analog circuits and electric power system design. Our overall goal is to approximate the optimal Pareto set over the small fraction of feasible input designs. The key challenges include the huge size of the design space, multiple objectives and large number of constraints, and the small fraction of feasible input designs which can be identified only after performing expensive simulations. We propose a novel and efficient preference-aware constrained multi-objective Bayesian optimization approach referred to as PAC-MOO to address these challenges. The key idea is to learn surrogate models for both output objectives and constraints, and select the candidate input for evaluation in each iteration that maximizes the information gained about the optimal constrained Pareto front while factoring in the preferences over objectives. Our experiments on two real-world analog circuit design optimization problems demonstrate the efficacy of PAC-MOO over prior methods.

This study presents an importance sampling formulation based on adaptively relaxing parameters from the indicator function and/or the probability density function. The formulation embodies the prevalent mathematical concept of relaxing a complex problem into a sequence of progressively easier sub-problems. Due to the flexibility in constructing relaxation parameters, relaxation-based importance sampling provides a unified framework to formulate various existing variance reduction techniques, such as subset simulation, sequential importance sampling, and annealed importance sampling. More crucially, the framework lays the foundation for creating new importance sampling strategies, tailoring to specific applications. To demonstrate this potential, two importance sampling strategies are proposed. The first strategy couples annealed importance sampling with subset simulation, focusing on low-dimensional problems. The second strategy aims to solve high-dimensional problems by leveraging spherical sampling and scaling techniques. Both methods are desirable for fragility analysis in performance-based engineering, as they can produce the entire fragility surface in a single run of the sampling algorithm. Three numerical examples, including a 1000-dimensional stochastic dynamic problem, are studied to demonstrate the proposed methods.

This paper focuses on parameter estimation and introduces a new method for lower bounding the Bayesian risk. The method allows for the use of virtually \emph{any} information measure, including R\'enyi's $\alpha$, $\varphi$-Divergences, and Sibson's $\alpha$-Mutual Information. The approach considers divergences as functionals of measures and exploits the duality between spaces of measures and spaces of functions. In particular, we show that one can lower bound the risk with any information measure by upper bounding its dual via Markov's inequality. We are thus able to provide estimator-independent impossibility results thanks to the Data-Processing Inequalities that divergences satisfy. The results are then applied to settings of interest involving both discrete and continuous parameters, including the ``Hide-and-Seek'' problem, and compared to the state-of-the-art techniques. An important observation is that the behaviour of the lower bound in the number of samples is influenced by the choice of the information measure. We leverage this by introducing a new divergence inspired by the ``Hockey-Stick'' Divergence, which is demonstrated empirically to provide the largest lower-bound across all considered settings. If the observations are subject to privatisation, stronger impossibility results can be obtained via Strong Data-Processing Inequalities. The paper also discusses some generalisations and alternative directions.

Partial Automation (PA) with intelligent support systems has been introduced in industrial machinery and advanced automobiles to reduce the burden of long hours of human operation. Under PA, operators perform manual operations (providing actions) and operations that switch to automatic/manual mode (mode-switching). Since PA reduces the total duration of manual operation, these two action and mode-switching operations can be replicated by imitation learning with high sample efficiency. To this end, this paper proposes Disturbance Injection under Partial Automation (DIPA) as a novel imitation learning framework. In DIPA, mode and actions (in the manual mode) are assumed to be observables in each state and are used to learn both action and mode-switching policies. The above learning is robustified by injecting disturbances into the operator's actions to optimize the disturbance's level for minimizing the covariate shift under PA. We experimentally validated the effectiveness of our method for long-horizon tasks in two simulations and a real robot environment and confirmed that our method outperformed the previous methods and reduced the demonstration burden.

We introduce and compare computational techniques for sharp extreme event probability estimates in stochastic differential equations with small additive Gaussian noise. In particular, we focus on strategies that are scalable, i.e. their efficiency does not degrade upon spatial and temporal refinement. For that purpose, we extend algorithms based on the Laplace method for estimating the probability of an extreme event to infinite dimensions. The method estimates the limiting exponential scaling using a single realization of the random variable, the large deviation minimizer. Finding this minimizer amounts to solving an optimization problem governed by a differential equation. The probability estimate becomes sharp when it additionally includes prefactor information, which necessitates computing the determinant of a second derivative operator to evaluate a Gaussian integral around the minimizer. We present an approach in infinite dimensions based on Fredholm determinants, and develop numerical algorithms to compute these determinants efficiently for the high-dimensional systems that arise upon discretization. We also give an interpretation of this approach using Gaussian process covariances and transition tubes. An example model problem, for which we also provide an open-source python implementation, is used throughout the paper to illustrate all methods discussed. To study the performance of the methods, we consider examples of stochastic differential and stochastic partial differential equations, including the randomly forced incompressible three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations.

This paper extends standard results from learning theory with independent data to sequences of dependent data. Contrary to most of the literature, we do not rely on mixing arguments or sequential measures of complexity and derive uniform risk bounds with classical proof patterns and capacity measures. In particular, we show that the standard classification risk bounds based on the VC-dimension hold in the exact same form for dependent data, and further provide Rademacher complexity-based bounds, that remain unchanged compared to the standard results for the identically and independently distributed case. Finally, we show how to apply these results in the context of scenario-based optimization in order to compute the sample complexity of random programs with dependent constraints.

Explicit exploration in the action space was assumed to be indispensable for online policy gradient methods to avoid a drastic degradation in sample complexity, for solving general reinforcement learning problems over finite state and action spaces. In this paper, we establish for the first time an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\epsilon^2)$ sample complexity for online policy gradient methods without incorporating any exploration strategies. The essential development consists of two new on-policy evaluation operators and a novel analysis of the stochastic policy mirror descent method (SPMD). SPMD with the first evaluation operator, called value-based estimation, tailors to the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Provided the Markov chains on the state space of generated policies are uniformly mixing with non-diminishing minimal visitation measure, an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\epsilon^2)$ sample complexity is obtained with a linear dependence on the size of the action space. SPMD with the second evaluation operator, namely truncated on-policy Monte Carlo (TOMC), attains an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\mathcal{H}_{\mathcal{D}}/\epsilon^2)$ sample complexity, where $\mathcal{H}_{\mathcal{D}}$ mildly depends on the effective horizon and the size of the action space with properly chosen Bregman divergence (e.g., Tsallis divergence). SPMD with TOMC also exhibits stronger convergence properties in that it controls the optimality gap with high probability rather than in expectation. In contrast to explicit exploration, these new policy gradient methods can prevent repeatedly committing to potentially high-risk actions when searching for optimal policies.