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Many models require integrals of high-dimensional functions: for instance, to obtain marginal likelihoods. Such integrals may be intractable, or too expensive to compute numerically. Instead, we can use the Laplace approximation (LA). The LA is exact if the function is proportional to a normal density; its effectiveness therefore depends on the function's true shape. Here, we propose the use of the probabilistic numerical framework to develop a diagnostic for the LA and its underlying shape assumptions, modelling the function and its integral as a Gaussian process and devising a "test" by conditioning on a finite number of function values. The test is decidedly non-asymptotic and is not intended as a full substitute for numerical integration - rather, it is simply intended to test the feasibility of the assumptions underpinning the LA with as minimal computation. We discuss approaches to optimize and design the test, apply it to known sample functions, and highlight the challenges of high dimensions.

Aperiodic autocorrelation is an important indicator of performance of sequences used in communications, remote sensing, and scientific instrumentation. Knowing a sequence's autocorrelation function, which reports the autocorrelation at every possible translation, is equivalent to knowing the magnitude of the sequence's Fourier transform. The phase problem is the difficulty in resolving this lack of phase information. We say that two sequences are equicorrelational to mean that they have the same aperiodic autocorrelation function. Sequences used in technological applications often have restrictions on their terms: they are not arbitrary complex numbers, but come from a more restricted alphabet. For example, binary sequences involve terms equal to only $+1$ and $-1$. We investigate the necessary and sufficient conditions for two sequences to be equicorrelational, where we take their alphabet into consideration. There are trivial forms of equicorrelationality arising from modifications that predictably preserve the autocorrelation, for example, negating a binary sequence or reversing the order of its terms. By a search of binary sequences up to length $44$, we find that nontrivial equicorrelationality among binary sequences does occur, but is rare. An integer $n$ is said to be equivocal when there are binary sequences of length $n$ that are nontrivially equicorrelational; otherwise $n$ is unequivocal. For $n \leq 44$, we found that the unequivocal lengths are $1$--$8$, $10$, $11$, $13$, $14$, $19$, $22$, $23$, $26$, $29$, $37$, and $38$. We pose open questions about the finitude of unequivocal numbers and the probability of nontrivial equicorrelationality occurring among binary sequences.

Synthetic control methods have been widely used for evaluating policy effects in comparative case studies. However, most existing synthetic control methods implicitly rule out interference effects on the untreated units, and their validity may be jeopardized in the presence of interference. In this paper, we propose a novel synthetic control method, which admits interference but does not require modeling the interference structure. Identification of the effects is achieved under the assumption that the number of interfered units is no larger than half of the total number of units minus the dimension of confounding factors. We propose consistent and asymptotically normal estimation and establish statistical inference for the direct and interference effects averaged over post-intervention periods. We evaluate the performance of our method and compare it to competing methods via numerical experiments. A real data analysis, evaluating the effects of the announcement of relocating the US embassy to Jerusalem on the number of Middle Eastern conflicts, provides empirical evidence that the announcement not only increases the number of conflicts in Israel-Palestine but also has interference effects on several other Middle Eastern countries.

We introduce an algebraic concept of the frame for abstract conditional independence (CI) models, together with basic operations with respect to which such a frame should be closed: copying and marginalization. Three standard examples of such frames are (discrete) probabilistic CI structures, semi-graphoids and structural semi-graphoids. We concentrate on those frames which are closed under the operation of set-theoretical intersection because, for these, the respective families of CI models are lattices. This allows one to apply the results from lattice theory and formal concept analysis to describe such families in terms of implications among CI statements. The central concept of this paper is that of self-adhesivity defined in algebraic terms, which is a combinatorial reflection of the self-adhesivity concept studied earlier in context of polymatroids and information theory. The generalization also leads to a self-adhesivity operator defined on the hyper-level of CI frames. We answer some of the questions related to this approach and raise other open questions. The core of the paper is in computations. The combinatorial approach to computation might overcome some memory and space limitation of software packages based on polyhedral geometry, in particular, if SAT solvers are utilized. We characterize some basic CI families over 4 variables in terms of canonical implications among CI statements. We apply our method in information-theoretical context to the task of entropic region demarcation over 5 variables.

Modelling multivariate spatio-temporal data with complex dependency structures is a challenging task but can be simplified by assuming that the original variables are generated from independent latent components. If these components are found, they can be modelled univariately. Blind source separation aims to recover the latent components by estimating the unmixing transformation based on the observed data only. The current methods for spatio-temporal blind source separation are restricted to linear unmixing, and nonlinear variants have not been implemented. In this paper, we extend identifiable variational autoencoder to the nonlinear nonstationary spatio-temporal blind source separation setting and demonstrate its performance using comprehensive simulation studies. Additionally, we introduce two alternative methods for the latent dimension estimation, which is a crucial task in order to obtain the correct latent representation. Finally, we illustrate the proposed methods using a meteorological application, where we estimate the latent dimension and the latent components, interpret the components, and show how nonstationarity can be accounted and prediction accuracy can be improved by using the proposed nonlinear blind source separation method as a preprocessing method.

Methods for analyzing representations in neural systems are increasingly popular tools in neuroscience and mechanistic interpretability. Measures comparing neural activations across conditions, architectures, and species give scalable ways to understand information transformation within different neural networks. However, recent findings show that some metrics respond to spurious signals, leading to misleading results. Establishing benchmark test cases is thus essential for identifying the most reliable metric and potential improvements. We propose that compositional learning in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) can provide a test case for dynamical representation alignment metrics. Implementing this case allows us to evaluate if metrics can identify representations that develop throughout learning and determine if representations identified by metrics reflect the network's actual computations. Building both attractor and RNN based test cases, we show that the recently proposed Dynamical Similarity Analysis (DSA) is more noise robust and reliably identifies behaviorally relevant representations compared to prior metrics (Procrustes, CKA). We also demonstrate how such test cases can extend beyond metric evaluation to study new architectures. Specifically, testing DSA in modern (Mamba) state space models suggests that these models, unlike RNNs, may not require changes in recurrent dynamics due to their expressive hidden states. Overall, we develop test cases that showcase how DSA's enhanced ability to detect dynamical motifs makes it highly effective for identifying ongoing computations in RNNs and revealing how networks learn tasks.

We propose new copula-based models for multivariate time series having continuous or discrete distributions, or a mixture of both. These models include stochastic volatility models and regime-switching models. We also propose statistics for testing independence between the generalized errors of these models, extending previous results of Duchesne, Ghoudi and Remillard (2012) obtained for stochastic volatility models. We define families of empirical processes constructed from lagged generalized errors, and we show that their joint asymptotic distributions are Gaussian and independent of the estimated parameters of the individual time series. Moebius transformations of the empirical processes are used to obtain tractable covariances. Several tests statistics are then proposed, based on Cramer-von Mises statistics and dependence measures, as well as graphical methods to visualize the dependence. In addition, numerical experiments are performed to assess the power of the proposed tests. Finally, to show the usefulness of our methodologies, examples of applications for financial data and crime data are given to cover both discrete and continuous cases. ll developed methodologies are implemented in the CRAN package IndGenErrors.

Many economic panel and dynamic models, such as rational behavior and Euler equations, imply that the parameters of interest are identified by conditional moment restrictions. We introduce a novel inference method without any prior information about which conditioning instruments are weak or irrelevant. Building on Bierens (1990), we propose penalized maximum statistics and combine bootstrap inference with model selection. Our method optimizes asymptotic power by solving a data-dependent max-min problem for tuning parameter selection. Extensive Monte Carlo experiments, based on an empirical example, demonstrate the extent to which our inference procedure is superior to those available in the literature.

The first artificial quantum neuron models followed a similar path to classic models, as they work only with discrete values. Here we introduce an algorithm that generalizes the binary model manipulating the phase of complex numbers. We propose, test, and implement a neuron model that works with continuous values in a quantum computer. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our model may work in a hybrid training scheme utilizing gradient descent as a learning algorithm. This work represents another step in the direction of evaluation of the use of artificial neural networks efficiently implemented on near-term quantum devices.

Graph representation learning for hypergraphs can be used to extract patterns among higher-order interactions that are critically important in many real world problems. Current approaches designed for hypergraphs, however, are unable to handle different types of hypergraphs and are typically not generic for various learning tasks. Indeed, models that can predict variable-sized heterogeneous hyperedges have not been available. Here we develop a new self-attention based graph neural network called Hyper-SAGNN applicable to homogeneous and heterogeneous hypergraphs with variable hyperedge sizes. We perform extensive evaluations on multiple datasets, including four benchmark network datasets and two single-cell Hi-C datasets in genomics. We demonstrate that Hyper-SAGNN significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on traditional tasks while also achieving great performance on a new task called outsider identification. Hyper-SAGNN will be useful for graph representation learning to uncover complex higher-order interactions in different applications.