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We develop a new method to estimate an ARMA model in the presence of big time series data. Using the concept of a rolling average, we develop a new efficient algorithm, called Rollage, to estimate the order of an AR model and subsequently fit the model. When used in conjunction with an existing methodology, specifically Durbin's algorithm, we show that our proposed method can be used as a criterion to optimally fit ARMA models. Empirical results on large-scale synthetic time series data support the theoretical results and reveal the efficacy of this new approach, especially when compared to existing methodology.

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It is well-known that classical optical cavities can exhibit localized phenomena associated to scattering resonances (using the Black Box Scattering Theory), leading to numerical instabilities in approximating the solution. Those localized phenomena concentrate at the inner boundary of the cavity and are called whispering gallery modes. In this paper we investigate scattering resonances for unbounded transmission problems with sign-changing coefficient (corresponding to optical cavities with negative optical propertie(s), for example made of metamaterials). Due to the change of sign of optical properties, previous results cannot be applied directly, and interface phenomena at the metamaterial-dielectric interface (such as the so-called surface plasmons) emerge. We establish the existence of scattering resonances for arbitrary two-dimensional smooth metamaterial cavities. The proof relies on an asymptotic characterization of the resonances, and extending the Black Box Scattering Theory to problems with sign-changing coefficient. Our asymptotic analysis reveals that, depending on the metamaterial's properties, scattering resonances situated closed to the real axis are associated to surface plasmons. Examples for several metamaterial cavities are provided.

Vision Transformers (ViT) serve as powerful vision models. Unlike convolutional neural networks, which dominated vision research in previous years, vision transformers enjoy the ability to capture long-range dependencies in the data. Nonetheless, an integral part of any transformer architecture, the self-attention mechanism, suffers from high latency and inefficient memory utilization, making it less suitable for high-resolution input images. To alleviate these shortcomings, hierarchical vision models locally employ self-attention on non-interleaving windows. This relaxation reduces the complexity to be linear in the input size; however, it limits the cross-window interaction, hurting the model performance. In this paper, we propose a new shift-invariant local attention layer, called query and attend (QnA), that aggregates the input locally in an overlapping manner, much like convolutions. The key idea behind QnA is to introduce learned queries, which allow fast and efficient implementation. We verify the effectiveness of our layer by incorporating it into a hierarchical vision transformer model. We show improvements in speed and memory complexity while achieving comparable accuracy with state-of-the-art models. Finally, our layer scales especially well with window size, requiring up-to x10 less memory while being up-to x5 faster than existing methods. The code is publicly available at \url{//github.com/moabarar/qna}.

Given a set $P$ of $n$ points in the plane, the $k$-center problem is to find $k$ congruent disks of minimum possible radius such that their union covers all the points in $P$. The $2$-center problem is a special case of the $k$-center problem that has been extensively studied in the recent past \cite{CAHN,HT,SH}. In this paper, we consider a generalized version of the $2$-center problem called \textit{proximity connected} $2$-center (PCTC) problem. In this problem, we are also given a parameter $\delta\geq 0$ and we have the additional constraint that the distance between the centers of the disks should be at most $\delta$. Note that when $\delta=0$, the PCTC problem is reduced to the $1$-center(minimum enclosing disk) problem and when $\delta$ tends to infinity, it is reduced to the $2$-center problem. The PCTC problem first appeared in the context of wireless networks in 1992 \cite{ACN0}, but obtaining a nontrivial deterministic algorithm for the problem remained open. In this paper, we resolve this open problem by providing a deterministic $O(n^2\log n)$ time algorithm for the problem.

Computing a maximum independent set (MaxIS) is a fundamental NP-hard problem in graph theory, which has important applications in a wide spectrum of fields. Since graphs in many applications are changing frequently over time, the problem of maintaining a MaxIS over dynamic graphs has attracted increasing attention over the past few years. Due to the intractability of maintaining an exact MaxIS, this paper aims to develop efficient algorithms that can maintain an approximate MaxIS with an accuracy guarantee theoretically. In particular, we propose a framework that maintains a $(\frac{\Delta}{2} + 1)$-approximate MaxIS over dynamic graphs and prove that it achieves a constant approximation ratio in many real-world networks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first non-trivial approximability result for the dynamic MaxIS problem. Following the framework, we implement an efficient linear-time dynamic algorithm and a more effective dynamic algorithm with near-linear expected time complexity. Our thorough experiments over real and synthetic graphs demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithms, especially when the graph is highly dynamic.

We provide a decision theoretic analysis of bandit experiments. The setting corresponds to a dynamic programming problem, but solving this directly is typically infeasible. Working within the framework of diffusion asymptotics, we define suitable notions of asymptotic Bayes and minimax risk for bandit experiments. For normally distributed rewards, the minimal Bayes risk can be characterized as the solution to a nonlinear second-order partial differential equation (PDE). Using a limit of experiments approach, we show that this PDE characterization also holds asymptotically under both parametric and non-parametric distribution of the rewards. The approach further describes the state variables it is asymptotically sufficient to restrict attention to, and therefore suggests a practical strategy for dimension reduction. The upshot is that we can approximate the dynamic programming problem defining the bandit experiment with a PDE which can be efficiently solved using sparse matrix routines. We derive the optimal Bayes and minimax policies from the numerical solutions to these equations. The proposed policies substantially dominate existing methods such as Thompson sampling. The framework also allows for substantial generalizations to the bandit problem such as time discounting and pure exploration motives.

We study efficient estimation of an interventional mean associated with a point exposure treatment under a causal graphical model represented by a directed acyclic graph without hidden variables. Under such a model, it may happen that a subset of the variables are uninformative in that failure to measure them neither precludes identification of the interventional mean nor changes the semiparametric variance bound for regular estimators of it. We develop a set of graphical criteria that are sound and complete for eliminating all the uninformative variables so that the cost of measuring them can be saved without sacrificing estimation efficiency, which could be useful when designing a planned observational or randomized study. Further, we construct a reduced directed acyclic graph on the set of informative variables only. We show that the interventional mean is identified from the marginal law by the g-formula (Robins, 1986) associated with the reduced graph, and the semiparametric variance bounds for estimating the interventional mean under the original and the reduced graphical model agree. This g-formula is an irreducible, efficient identifying formula in the sense that the nonparametric estimator of the formula, under regularity conditions, is asymptotically efficient under the original causal graphical model, and no formula with such property exists that only depends on a strict subset of the variables.

In randomized experiments, the actual treatments received by some experimental units may differ from their treatment assignments. This non-compliance issue often occurs in clinical trials, social experiments, and the applications of randomized experiments in many other fields. Under certain assumptions, the average treatment effect for the compliers is identifiable and equal to the ratio of the intention-to-treat effects of the potential outcomes to that of the potential treatment received. To improve the estimation efficiency, we propose three model-assisted estimators for the complier average treatment effect in randomized experiments with a binary outcome. We study their asymptotic properties, compare their efficiencies with that of the Wald estimator, and propose the Neyman-type conservative variance estimators to facilitate valid inferences. Moreover, we extend our methods and theory to estimate the multiplicative complier average treatment effect. Our analysis is randomization-based, allowing the working models to be misspecified. Finally, we conduct simulation studies to illustrate the advantages of the model-assisted methods and apply these analysis methods in a randomized experiment to evaluate the effect of academic services or incentives on academic performance.

In this paper we study the finite sample and asymptotic properties of various weighting estimators of the local average treatment effect (LATE), several of which are based on Abadie (2003)'s kappa theorem. Our framework presumes a binary endogenous explanatory variable ("treatment") and a binary instrumental variable, which may only be valid after conditioning on additional covariates. We argue that one of the Abadie estimators, which we show is weight normalized, is likely to dominate the others in many contexts. A notable exception is in settings with one-sided noncompliance, where certain unnormalized estimators have the advantage of being based on a denominator that is bounded away from zero. We use a simulation study and three empirical applications to illustrate our findings. In applications to causal effects of college education using the college proximity instrument (Card, 1995) and causal effects of childbearing using the sibling sex composition instrument (Angrist and Evans, 1998), the unnormalized estimates are clearly unreasonable, with "incorrect" signs, magnitudes, or both. Overall, our results suggest that (i) the relative performance of different kappa weighting estimators varies with features of the data-generating process; and that (ii) the normalized version of Tan (2006)'s estimator may be an attractive alternative in many contexts. Applied researchers with access to a binary instrumental variable should also consider covariate balancing or doubly robust estimators of the LATE.

Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.

Many real-world applications require the prediction of long sequence time-series, such as electricity consumption planning. Long sequence time-series forecasting (LSTF) demands a high prediction capacity of the model, which is the ability to capture precise long-range dependency coupling between output and input efficiently. Recent studies have shown the potential of Transformer to increase the prediction capacity. However, there are several severe issues with Transformer that prevent it from being directly applicable to LSTF, such as quadratic time complexity, high memory usage, and inherent limitation of the encoder-decoder architecture. To address these issues, we design an efficient transformer-based model for LSTF, named Informer, with three distinctive characteristics: (i) a $ProbSparse$ Self-attention mechanism, which achieves $O(L \log L)$ in time complexity and memory usage, and has comparable performance on sequences' dependency alignment. (ii) the self-attention distilling highlights dominating attention by halving cascading layer input, and efficiently handles extreme long input sequences. (iii) the generative style decoder, while conceptually simple, predicts the long time-series sequences at one forward operation rather than a step-by-step way, which drastically improves the inference speed of long-sequence predictions. Extensive experiments on four large-scale datasets demonstrate that Informer significantly outperforms existing methods and provides a new solution to the LSTF problem.

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