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In recent years, autonomous vehicles have become increasingly popular, leading to extensive research on their safe and efficient operation. Understanding road yielding behavior is crucial for incorporating the appropriate driving behavior into algorithms. This paper focuses on investigating drivers' yielding behavior at unsignalized intersections. We quantified and modelled the speed reduction time for vulnerable road users at a zebra crossing using parametric survival analysis. We then evaluated the impact of speed reduction time in two different interaction scenarios, compared to the baseline condition of no interaction through an accelerated failure time regression model with the log-logistic distribution. The results demonstrate the unique characteristics of each yielding behavior scenario, emphasizing the need to account for these variations in the modelling process of autonomous vehicles.

The aggregation of multiple opinions plays a crucial role in decision-making, such as in hiring and loan review, and in labeling data for supervised learning. Although majority voting and existing opinion aggregation models are effective for simple tasks, they are inappropriate for tasks without objectively true labels in which disagreements may occur. In particular, when voter attributes such as gender or race introduce bias into opinions, the aggregation results may vary depending on the composition of voter attributes. A balanced group of voters is desirable for fair aggregation results but may be difficult to prepare. In this study, we consider methods to achieve fair opinion aggregation based on voter attributes and evaluate the fairness of the aggregated results. To this end, we consider an approach that combines opinion aggregation models such as majority voting and the Dawid and Skene model (D&S model) with fairness options such as sample weighting. To evaluate the fairness of opinion aggregation, probabilistic soft labels are preferred over discrete class labels. First, we address the problem of soft label estimation without considering voter attributes and identify some issues with the D&S model. To address these limitations, we propose a new Soft D&S model with improved accuracy in estimating soft labels. Moreover, we evaluated the fairness of an opinion aggregation model, including Soft D&S, in combination with different fairness options using synthetic and semi-synthetic data. The experimental results suggest that the combination of Soft D&S and data splitting as a fairness option is effective for dense data, whereas weighted majority voting is effective for sparse data. These findings should prove particularly valuable in supporting decision-making by human and machine-learning models with balanced opinion aggregation.

This work presents a non-parametric estimator for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the jump-size distribution for a storage system with compound Poisson input. The workload process is observed according to an independent Poisson sampling process. The nonparametric estimator is constructed by first estimating the characteristic function (CF) and then applying an inversion formula. The convergence rate of the CF estimator at $s$ is shown to be of the order of $s^2/n$, where $n$ is the sample size. This convergence rate is leveraged to explore the bias-variance tradeoff of the inversion estimator. It is demonstrated that within a certain class of continuous distributions, the risk, in terms of MSE, is uniformly bounded by $C n^{-\frac{\eta}{1+\eta}}$, where $C$ is a positive constant and the parameter $\eta>0$ depends on the smoothness of the underlying class of distributions. A heuristic method is further developed to address the case of an unknown rate of the compound Poisson input process.

Moderate calibration, the expected event probability among observations with predicted probability $\pi$ being equal to $\pi$, is a desired property of risk prediction models. Current graphical and numerical techniques for evaluating moderate calibration of clinical prediction models are mostly based on smoothing or grouping the data. As well, there is no widely accepted inferential method for the null hypothesis that a model is moderately calibrated. In this work, we discuss recently-developed, and propose novel, methods for the assessment of moderate calibration for binary responses. The methods are based on the limiting distributions of functions of standardized partial sums of prediction errors converging to the corresponding laws of Brownian motion. The novel method relies on well-known properties of the Brownian bridge which enables joint inference on mean and moderate calibration, leading to a unified 'bridge' test for detecting miscalibration. Simulation studies indicate that the bridge test is more powerful, often substantially, than the alternative test. As a case study we consider a prediction model for short-term mortality after a heart attack. Moderate calibration can be assessed without requiring arbitrary grouping of data or using methods that require tuning of parameters. We suggest graphical presentation of the partial sum curves and reporting the strength of evidence indicated by the proposed methods when examining model calibration.

We present a data-driven emulator, stochastic weather generator (SWG), suitable for estimating probabilities of prolonged heatwaves in France and Scandinavia. This emulator is based on the method of analogs of circulation to which we add temperature and soil moisture as predictor fields. We train the emulator on an intermediate complexity climate model run and show that it is capable of predicting conditional probabilities (forecasting) of heatwaves out of sample. Special attention is payed that this prediction is evaluated using proper score appropriate for rare events. To accelerate the computation of analogs dimensionality reduction techniques are applied and the performance is evaluated. The probabilistic prediction achieved with SWG is compared with the one achieved with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). With the availability of hundreds of years of training data CNNs perform better at the task of probabilistic prediction. In addition, we show that the SWG emulator trained on 80 years of data is capable of estimating extreme return times of order of thousands of years for heatwaves longer than several days more precisely than the fit based on generalised extreme value distribution. Finally, the quality of its synthetic extreme teleconnection patterns obtained with stochastic weather generator is studied. We showcase two examples of such synthetic teleconnection patterns for heatwaves in France and Scandinavia that compare favorably to the very long climate model control run.

Growing concerns regarding algorithmic fairness have led to a surge in methodologies to mitigate algorithmic bias. However, such methodologies largely assume that observed labels in training data are correct. This is problematic because bias in labels is pervasive across important domains, including healthcare, hiring, and content moderation. In particular, human-generated labels are prone to encoding societal biases. While the presence of labeling bias has been discussed conceptually, there is a lack of methodologies to address this problem. We propose a pruning method -- Decoupled Confident Learning (DeCoLe) -- specifically designed to mitigate label bias. After illustrating its performance on a synthetic dataset, we apply DeCoLe in the context of hate speech detection, where label bias has been recognized as an important challenge, and show that it successfully identifies biased labels and outperforms competing approaches.

In biomedical studies, longitudinal processes are collected till time-to-event, sometimes on nested timescales (example, days within months). Most of the literature in joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data has focused on modeling the mean or dispersion of the longitudinal process with the hazard for time-to-event. However, based on the motivating studies, it may be of interest to investigate how the cycle-level {\it geometric features} (such as the curvature, location and height of a peak), of a cyclical longitudinal process is associated with the time-to-event being studied. We propose a shared parameter joint model for a cyclical longitudinal process and a discrete survival time, measured on nested timescales, where the cycle-varying geometric feature is modeled through a linear mixed effects model and a proportional hazards model for the discrete survival time. The proposed approach allows for prediction of survival probabilities for future subjects based on their available longitudinal measurements. Our proposed model and approach is illustrated through simulation and analysis of Stress and Time-to-Pregnancy, a component of Oxford Conception Study. A joint modeling approach was used to assess whether the cycle-specific geometric features of the lutenizing hormone measurements, such as its peak or its curvature, are associated with time-to-pregnancy (TTP).

Effective multi-robot teams require the ability to move to goals in complex environments in order to address real-world applications such as search and rescue. Multi-robot teams should be able to operate in a completely decentralized manner, with individual robot team members being capable of acting without explicit communication between neighbors. In this paper, we propose a novel game theoretic model that enables decentralized and communication-free navigation to a goal position. Robots each play their own distributed game by estimating the behavior of their local teammates in order to identify behaviors that move them in the direction of the goal, while also avoiding obstacles and maintaining team cohesion without collisions. We prove theoretically that generated actions approach a Nash equilibrium, which also corresponds to an optimal strategy identified for each robot. We show through extensive simulations that our approach enables decentralized and communication-free navigation by a multi-robot system to a goal position, and is able to avoid obstacles and collisions, maintain connectivity, and respond robustly to sensor noise.

A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has traditionally placed more emphasis on predictive tasks. This distinction is beginning to fade, with an emerging area of interdisciplinary research at the convergence of causal inference and language processing. Still, research on causality in NLP remains scattered across domains without unified definitions, benchmark datasets and clear articulations of the remaining challenges. In this survey, we consolidate research across academic areas and situate it in the broader NLP landscape. We introduce the statistical challenge of estimating causal effects, encompassing settings where text is used as an outcome, treatment, or as a means to address confounding. In addition, we explore potential uses of causal inference to improve the performance, robustness, fairness, and interpretability of NLP models. We thus provide a unified overview of causal inference for the computational linguistics community.

Machine-learning models have demonstrated great success in learning complex patterns that enable them to make predictions about unobserved data. In addition to using models for prediction, the ability to interpret what a model has learned is receiving an increasing amount of attention. However, this increased focus has led to considerable confusion about the notion of interpretability. In particular, it is unclear how the wide array of proposed interpretation methods are related, and what common concepts can be used to evaluate them. We aim to address these concerns by defining interpretability in the context of machine learning and introducing the Predictive, Descriptive, Relevant (PDR) framework for discussing interpretations. The PDR framework provides three overarching desiderata for evaluation: predictive accuracy, descriptive accuracy and relevancy, with relevancy judged relative to a human audience. Moreover, to help manage the deluge of interpretation methods, we introduce a categorization of existing techniques into model-based and post-hoc categories, with sub-groups including sparsity, modularity and simulatability. To demonstrate how practitioners can use the PDR framework to evaluate and understand interpretations, we provide numerous real-world examples. These examples highlight the often under-appreciated role played by human audiences in discussions of interpretability. Finally, based on our framework, we discuss limitations of existing methods and directions for future work. We hope that this work will provide a common vocabulary that will make it easier for both practitioners and researchers to discuss and choose from the full range of interpretation methods.