We consider two-stage robust optimization problems, which can be seen as games between a decision maker and an adversary. After the decision maker fixes part of the solution, the adversary chooses a scenario from a specified uncertainty set. Afterwards, the decision maker can react to this scenario by completing the partial first-stage solution to a full solution. We extend this classic setting by adding another adversary stage after the second decision-maker stage, which results in min-max-min-max problems, thus pushing two-stage settings further towards more general multi-stage problems. We focus on budgeted uncertainty sets and consider both the continuous and discrete case. For the former, we show that a wide range of robust combinatorial optimization problems can be decomposed into polynomially many subproblems, which can be solved in polynomial time for example in the case of (\textsc{representative}) \textsc{selection}. For the latter, we prove NP-hardness for a wide range of problems, but note that the special case where first- and second-stage adversarial costs are equal can remain solvable in polynomial time.
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We consider the Cauchy problem for the Helmholtz equation with a domain in R^d, d>2 with N cylindrical outlets to infinity with bounded inclusions in R^{d-1}. Cauchy data are prescribed on the boundary of the bounded domains and the aim is to find solution on the unbounded part of the boundary. In 1989, Kozlov and Maz'ya proposed an alternating iterative method for solving Cauchy problems associated with elliptic,self-adjoint and positive-definite operators in bounded domains. Different variants of this method for solving Cauchy problems associated with Helmholtz-type operators exists. We consider the variant proposed by Mpinganzima et al. for bounded domains and derive the necessary conditions for the convergence of the procedure in unbounded domains. For the numerical implementation, a finite difference method is used to solve the problem in a simple rectangular domain in R^2 that represent a truncated infinite strip. The numerical results shows that by appropriate truncation of the domain and with appropriate choice of the Robin parameters, the Robin-Dirichlet alternating iterative procedure is convergent.
Interacting agents receive public information at no cost and flexibly acquire private information at a cost proportional to entropy reduction. When a policymaker provides more public information, agents acquire less private information, thus lowering information costs. Does more public information raise or reduce uncertainty faced by agents? Is it beneficial or detrimental to welfare? To address these questions, we examine the impacts of public information on flexible information acquisition in a linear-quadratic-Gaussian game with arbitrary quadratic material welfare. More public information raises uncertainty if and only if the game exhibits strategic complementarity, which can be harmful to welfare. However, when agents acquire a large amount of information, more provision of public information increases welfare through a substantial reduction in the cost of information. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for welfare to increase with public information and identify optimal public information disclosure, which is either full or partial disclosure depending upon the welfare function and the slope of the best response.
Bayesian optimization is a popular method for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Yet it oftentimes struggles in high dimensions where the computation could be prohibitively heavy. To alleviate this problem, we introduce Coordinate backoff Bayesian Optimization (CobBO) with two-stage kernels. During each round, the first stage uses a simple coarse kernel that sacrifices the approximation accuracy for computational efficiency. It captures the global landscape by purposely smoothing away local fluctuations. Then, in the second stage of the same round, past observed points in the full space are projected to the selected subspace to form virtual points. These virtual points, along with the means and variances of their unknown function values estimated using the simple kernel of the first stage, are fitted to a more sophisticated kernel model in the second stage. Within the selected low dimensional subspace, the computational cost of conducting Bayesian optimization therein becomes affordable. To further enhance the performance, a sequence of consecutive observations in the same subspace are collected, which can effectively refine the approximation of the function. This refinement lasts until a stopping rule is met determining when to back off from a certain subspace and switch to another. This decoupling significantly reduces the computational burden in high dimensions, which fully leverages the observations in the whole space rather than only relying on observations in each coordinate subspace. Extensive evaluations show that CobBO finds solutions comparable to or better than other state-of-the-art methods for dimensions ranging from tens to hundreds, while reducing both the trial complexity and computational costs.
In this work we describe an Adaptive Regularization using Cubics (ARC) method for large-scale nonconvex unconstrained optimization using Limited-memory Quasi-Newton (LQN) matrices. ARC methods are a relatively new family of optimization strategies that utilize a cubic-regularization (CR) term in place of trust-regions and line-searches. LQN methods offer a large-scale alternative to using explicit second-order information by taking identical inputs to those used by popular first-order methods such as stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Solving the CR subproblem exactly requires Newton's method, yet using properties of the internal structure of LQN matrices, we are able to find exact solutions to the CR subproblem in a matrix-free manner, providing large speedups and scaling into modern size requirements. Additionally, we expand upon previous ARC work and explicitly incorporate first-order updates into our algorithm. We provide experimental results when the SR1 update is used, which show substantial speed-ups and competitive performance compared to Adam and other second order optimizers on deep neural networks (DNNs). We find that our new approach, ARCLQN, compares to modern optimizers with minimal tuning, a common pain-point for second order methods.
Computer models are widely used in decision support for energy systems operation, planning and policy. A system of models is often employed, where model inputs themselves arise from other computer models, with each model being developed by different teams of experts. Gaussian Process emulators can be used to approximate the behaviour of complex, computationally intensive models and used to generate predictions together with a measure of uncertainty about the predicted model output. This paper presents a computationally efficient framework for propagating uncertainty within a network of models with high-dimensional outputs used for energy planning. We present a case study from a UK county council considering low carbon technologies to transform its infrastructure to reach a net-zero carbon target. The system model considered for this case study is simple, however the framework can be applied to larger networks of more complex models.
This paper focuses on stochastic saddle point problems with decision-dependent distributions. These are problems whose objective is the expected value of a stochastic payoff function, where random variables are drawn from a distribution induced by a distributional map. For general distributional maps, the problem of finding saddle points is in general computationally burdensome, even if the distribution is known. To enable a tractable solution approach, we introduce the notion of equilibrium points -- which are saddle points for the stationary stochastic minimax problem that they induce -- and provide conditions for their existence and uniqueness. We demonstrate that the distance between the two solution types is bounded provided that the objective has a strongly-convex-strongly-concave payoff and a Lipschitz continuous distributional map. We develop deterministic and stochastic primal-dual algorithms and demonstrate their convergence to the equilibrium point. In particular, by modeling errors emerging from a stochastic gradient estimator as sub-Weibull random variables, we provide error bounds in expectation and in high probability that hold for each iteration. Moreover, we show convergence to a neighborhood almost surely. Finally, we investigate a condition on the distributional map -- which we call opposing mixture dominance -- that ensures that the objective is strongly-convex-strongly-concave. We tailor the convergence results for the primal-dual algorithms to this opposing mixture dominance setup.
In this study, we examine a clustering problem in which the covariates of each individual element in a dataset are associated with an uncertainty specific to that element. More specifically, we consider a clustering approach in which a pre-processing applying a non-linear transformation to the covariates is used to capture the hidden data structure. To this end, we approximate the sets representing the propagated uncertainty for the pre-processed features empirically. To exploit the empirical uncertainty sets, we propose a greedy and optimistic clustering (GOC) algorithm that finds better feature candidates over such sets, yielding more condensed clusters. As an important application, we apply the GOC algorithm to synthetic datasets of the orbital properties of stars generated through our numerical simulation mimicking the formation process of the Milky Way. The GOC algorithm demonstrates an improved performance in finding sibling stars originating from the same dwarf galaxy. These realistic datasets have also been made publicly available.
Low-rank matrix estimation under heavy-tailed noise is challenging, both computationally and statistically. Convex approaches have been proven statistically optimal but suffer from high computational costs, especially since robust loss functions are usually non-smooth. More recently, computationally fast non-convex approaches via sub-gradient descent are proposed, which, unfortunately, fail to deliver a statistically consistent estimator even under sub-Gaussian noise. In this paper, we introduce a novel Riemannian sub-gradient (RsGrad) algorithm which is not only computationally efficient with linear convergence but also is statistically optimal, be the noise Gaussian or heavy-tailed. Convergence theory is established for a general framework and specific applications to absolute loss, Huber loss, and quantile loss are investigated. Compared with existing non-convex methods, ours reveals a surprising phenomenon of dual-phase convergence. In phase one, RsGrad behaves as in a typical non-smooth optimization that requires gradually decaying stepsizes. However, phase one only delivers a statistically sub-optimal estimator which is already observed in the existing literature. Interestingly, during phase two, RsGrad converges linearly as if minimizing a smooth and strongly convex objective function and thus a constant stepsize suffices. Underlying the phase-two convergence is the smoothing effect of random noise to the non-smooth robust losses in an area close but not too close to the truth. Lastly, RsGrad is applicable for low-rank tensor estimation under heavy-tailed noise where a statistically optimal rate is attainable with the same phenomenon of dual-phase convergence, and a novel shrinkage-based second-order moment method is guaranteed to deliver a warm initialization. Numerical simulations confirm our theoretical discovery and showcase the superiority of RsGrad over prior methods.
We study a class of enriched unfitted finite element or generalized finite element methods (GFEM) to solve a larger class of interface problems, that is, 1D elliptic interface problems with discontinuous solutions, including those having implicit or Robin-type interface jump conditions. The major challenge of GFEM development is to construct enrichment functions that capture the imposed discontinuity of the solution while keeping the condition number from fast growth. The linear stable generalized finite element method (SGFEM) was recently developed using one enrichment function. We generalized it to an arbitrary degree using two simple discontinuous one-sided enrichment functions. Optimal order convergence in the $L^2$ and broken $H^1$-norms are established. So is the optimal order convergence at all nodes. To prove the efficiency of the SGFEM, the enriched linear, quadratic, and cubic elements are applied to a multi-layer wall model for drug-eluting stents in which zero-flux jump conditions and implicit concentration interface conditions are both present.
One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.
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