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We revisit the Bayesian Context Trees (BCT) modelling framework for discrete time series, which was recently found to be very effective in numerous tasks including model selection, estimation and prediction. A novel representation of the induced posterior distribution on model space is derived in terms of a simple branching process, and several consequences of this are explored in theory and in practice. First, it is shown that the branching process representation leads to a simple variable-dimensional Monte Carlo sampler for the joint posterior distribution on models and parameters, which can efficiently produce independent samples. This sampler is found to be more efficient than earlier MCMC samplers for the same tasks. Then, the branching process representation is used to establish the asymptotic consistency of the BCT posterior, including the derivation of an almost-sure convergence rate. Finally, an extensive study is carried out on the performance of the induced Bayesian entropy estimator. Its utility is illustrated through both simulation experiments and real-world applications, where it is found to outperform several state-of-the-art methods.

The extensive-form game has been studied considerably in recent years. It can represent games with multiple decision points and incomplete information, and hence it is helpful in formulating games with uncertain inputs, such as poker. We consider an extended-form game with two players and zero-sum, i.e., the sum of their payoffs is always zero. In such games, the problem of finding the optimal strategy can be formulated as a bilinear saddle-point problem. This formulation grows huge depending on the size of the game, since it has variables representing the strategies at all decision points for each player. To solve such large-scale bilinear saddle-point problems, the excessive gap technique (EGT), a smoothing method, has been studied. This method generates a sequence of approximate solutions whose error is guaranteed to converge at $\mathcal{O}(1/k)$, where $k$ is the number of iterations. However, it has the disadvantage of having poor theoretical bounds on the error related to the game size. This makes it inapplicable to large games. Our goal is to improve the smoothing method for solving extensive-form games so that it can be applied to large-scale games. To this end, we make two contributions in this work. First, we slightly modify the strongly convex function used in the smoothing method in order to improve the theoretical bounds related to the game size. Second, we propose a heuristic called centering trick, which allows the smoothing method to be combined with other methods and consequently accelerates the convergence in practice. As a result, we combine EGT with CFR+, a state-of-the-art method for extensive-form games, to achieve good performance in games where conventional smoothing methods do not perform well. The proposed smoothing method is shown to have the potential to solve large games in practice.

It is a common phenomenon that for high-dimensional and nonparametric statistical models, rate-optimal estimators balance squared bias and variance. Although this balancing is widely observed, little is known whether methods exist that could avoid the trade-off between bias and variance. We propose a general strategy to obtain lower bounds on the variance of any estimator with bias smaller than a prespecified bound. This shows to which extent the bias-variance trade-off is unavoidable and allows to quantify the loss of performance for methods that do not obey it. The approach is based on a number of abstract lower bounds for the variance involving the change of expectation with respect to different probability measures as well as information measures such as the Kullback-Leibler or $\chi^2$-divergence. In a second part of the article, the abstract lower bounds are applied to several statistical models including the Gaussian white noise model, a boundary estimation problem, the Gaussian sequence model and the high-dimensional linear regression model. For these specific statistical applications, different types of bias-variance trade-offs occur that vary considerably in their strength. For the trade-off between integrated squared bias and integrated variance in the Gaussian white noise model, we propose to combine the general strategy for lower bounds with a reduction technique. This allows us to reduce the original problem to a lower bound on the bias-variance trade-off for estimators with additional symmetry properties in a simpler statistical model. In the Gaussian sequence model, different phase transitions of the bias-variance trade-off occur. Although there is a non-trivial interplay between bias and variance, the rate of the squared bias and the variance do not have to be balanced in order to achieve the minimax estimation rate.

We study the sample complexity of identifying an approximate equilibrium for two-player zero-sum $n\times 2$ matrix games. That is, in a sequence of repeated game plays, how many rounds must the two players play before reaching an approximate equilibrium (e.g., Nash)? We derive instance-dependent bounds that define an ordering over game matrices that captures the intuition that the dynamics of some games converge faster than others. Specifically, we consider a stochastic observation model such that when the two players choose actions $i$ and $j$, respectively, they both observe each other's played actions and a stochastic observation $X_{ij}$ such that $\mathbb E[ X_{ij}] = A_{ij}$. To our knowledge, our work is the first case of instance-dependent lower bounds on the number of rounds the players must play before reaching an approximate equilibrium in the sense that the number of rounds depends on the specific properties of the game matrix $A$ as well as the desired accuracy. We also prove a converse statement: there exist player strategies that achieve this lower bound.

Generalised hyperbolic (GH) processes are a class of stochastic processes that are used to model the dynamics of a wide range of complex systems that exhibit heavy-tailed behavior, including systems in finance, economics, biology, and physics. In this paper, we present novel simulation methods based on subordination with a generalised inverse Gaussian (GIG) process and using a generalised shot-noise representation that involves random thinning of infinite series of decreasing jump sizes. Compared with our previous work on GIG processes, we provide tighter bounds for the construction of rejection sampling ratios, leading to improved acceptance probabilities in simulation. Furthermore, we derive methods for the adaptive determination of the number of points required in the associated random series using concentration inequalities. Residual small jumps are then approximated using an appropriately scaled Brownian motion term with drift. Finally the rejection sampling steps are made significantly more computationally efficient through the use of squeezing functions based on lower and upper bounds on the L\'evy density. Experimental results are presented illustrating the strong performance under various parameter settings and comparing the marginal distribution of the GH paths with exact simulations of GH random variates. The new simulation methodology is made available to researchers through the publication of a Python code repository.

The kernel-based method has been successfully applied in linear system identification using stable kernel designs. From a Gaussian process perspective, it automatically provides probabilistic error bounds for the identified models from the posterior covariance, which are useful in robust and stochastic control. However, the error bounds require knowledge of the true hyperparameters in the kernel design and are demonstrated to be inaccurate with estimated hyperparameters for lightly damped systems or in the presence of high noise. In this work, we provide reliable quantification of the estimation error when the hyperparameters are unknown. The bounds are obtained by first constructing a high-probability set for the true hyperparameters from the marginal likelihood function and then finding the worst-case posterior covariance within the set. The proposed bound is proven to contain the true model with a high probability and its validity is verified in numerical simulation.

This paper explores continuous-time control synthesis for target-driven navigation to satisfy complex high-level tasks expressed as linear temporal logic (LTL). We propose a model-free framework using deep reinforcement learning (DRL) where the underlying dynamic system is unknown (an opaque box). Unlike prior work, this paper considers scenarios where the given LTL specification might be infeasible and therefore cannot be accomplished globally. Instead of modifying the given LTL formula, we provide a general DRL-based approach to satisfy it with minimal violation. To do this, we transform a previously multi-objective DRL problem, which requires simultaneous automata satisfaction and minimum violation cost, into a single objective. By guiding the DRL agent with a sampling-based path planning algorithm for the potentially infeasible LTL task, the proposed approach mitigates the myopic tendencies of DRL, which are often an issue when learning general LTL tasks that can have long or infinite horizons. This is achieved by decomposing an infeasible LTL formula into several reach-avoid sub-tasks with shorter horizons, which can be trained in a modular DRL architecture. Furthermore, we overcome the challenge of the exploration process for DRL in complex and cluttered environments by using path planners to design rewards that are dense in the configuration space. The benefits of the presented approach are demonstrated through testing on various complex nonlinear systems and compared with state-of-the-art baselines. The Video demonstration can be found here://youtu.be/jBhx6Nv224E.

We present prompt distribution learning for effectively adapting a pre-trained vision-language model to address downstream recognition tasks. Our method not only learns low-bias prompts from a few samples but also captures the distribution of diverse prompts to handle the varying visual representations. In this way, we provide high-quality task-related content for facilitating recognition. This prompt distribution learning is realized by an efficient approach that learns the output embeddings of prompts instead of the input embeddings. Thus, we can employ a Gaussian distribution to model them effectively and derive a surrogate loss for efficient training. Extensive experiments on 12 datasets demonstrate that our method consistently and significantly outperforms existing methods. For example, with 1 sample per category, it relatively improves the average result by 9.1% compared to human-crafted prompts.

Learning disentanglement aims at finding a low dimensional representation which consists of multiple explanatory and generative factors of the observational data. The framework of variational autoencoder (VAE) is commonly used to disentangle independent factors from observations. However, in real scenarios, factors with semantics are not necessarily independent. Instead, there might be an underlying causal structure which renders these factors dependent. We thus propose a new VAE based framework named CausalVAE, which includes a Causal Layer to transform independent exogenous factors into causal endogenous ones that correspond to causally related concepts in data. We further analyze the model identifiabitily, showing that the proposed model learned from observations recovers the true one up to a certain degree. Experiments are conducted on various datasets, including synthetic and real word benchmark CelebA. Results show that the causal representations learned by CausalVAE are semantically interpretable, and their causal relationship as a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is identified with good accuracy. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the proposed CausalVAE model is able to generate counterfactual data through "do-operation" to the causal factors.

The aim of this work is to develop a fully-distributed algorithmic framework for training graph convolutional networks (GCNs). The proposed method is able to exploit the meaningful relational structure of the input data, which are collected by a set of agents that communicate over a sparse network topology. After formulating the centralized GCN training problem, we first show how to make inference in a distributed scenario where the underlying data graph is split among different agents. Then, we propose a distributed gradient descent procedure to solve the GCN training problem. The resulting model distributes computation along three lines: during inference, during back-propagation, and during optimization. Convergence to stationary solutions of the GCN training problem is also established under mild conditions. Finally, we propose an optimization criterion to design the communication topology between agents in order to match with the graph describing data relationships. A wide set of numerical results validate our proposal. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work combining graph convolutional neural networks with distributed optimization.