Statistical analysis of extremes can be used to predict the probability of future extreme events, such as large rainfalls or devastating windstorms. The quality of these forecasts can be measured through scoring rules. Locally scale invariant scoring rules give equal importance to the forecasts at different locations regardless of differences in the prediction uncertainty. This is a useful feature when computing average scores but can be an unnecessarily strict requirement when mostly concerned with extremes. We propose the concept of local weight-scale invariance, describing scoring rules fulfilling local scale invariance in a certain region of interest, and as a special case local tail-scale invariance, for large events. Moreover, a new version of the weighted Continuous Ranked Probability score (wCRPS) called the scaled wCRPS (swCRPS) that possesses this property is developed and studied. The score is a suitable alternative for scoring extreme value models over areas with varying scale of extreme events, and we derive explicit formulas of the score for the Generalised Extreme Value distribution. The scoring rules are compared through simulation, and their usage is illustrated in modelling of extreme water levels, annual maximum rainfalls, and in an application to non-extreme forecast for the prediction of air pollution.
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Neural network with quadratic decision functions have been introduced as alternatives to standard neural networks with affine linear one. They are advantageous when the objects to be identified are of compact basic geometries like circles, ellipsis etc. In this paper we investigate the use of such ansatz functions for classification. In particular we test and compare the algorithm on the MNIST dataset for classification of handwritten digits and for classification of subspecies. We also show, that the implementation can be based on the neural network structure in the software Tensorflow and Keras, respectively.
Large-scale language-vision pre-training models, such as CLIP, have achieved remarkable text-guided image morphing results by leveraging several unconditional generative models. However, existing CLIP-guided image morphing methods encounter difficulties when morphing photorealistic images. Specifically, existing guidance fails to provide detailed explanations of the morphing regions within the image, leading to misguidance. In this paper, we observed that such misguidance could be effectively mitigated by simply using a proper regularization loss. Our approach comprises two key components: 1) a geodesic cosine similarity loss that minimizes inter-modality features (i.e., image and text) on a projected subspace of CLIP space, and 2) a latent regularization loss that minimizes intra-modality features (i.e., image and image) on the image manifold. By replacing the na\"ive directional CLIP loss in a drop-in replacement manner, our method achieves superior morphing results on both images and videos for various benchmarks, including CLIP-inversion.
Optical coherence tomography (OCT) suffers from speckle noise, causing the deterioration of image quality, especially in high-resolution modalities like visible light OCT (vis-OCT). The potential of conventional supervised deep learning denoising methods is limited by the difficulty of obtaining clean data. Here, we proposed an innovative self-supervised strategy called Sub2Full (S2F) for OCT despeckling without clean data. This approach works by acquiring two repeated B-scans, splitting the spectrum of the first repeat as a low-resolution input, and utilizing the full spectrum of the second repeat as the high-resolution target. The proposed method was validated on vis-OCT retinal images visualizing sublaminar structures in outer retina and demonstrated superior performance over conventional Noise2Noise and Noise2Void schemes. The code is available at //github.com/PittOCT/Sub2Full-OCT-Denoising.
We generalize the Poisson limit theorem to binary functions of random objects whose law is invariant under the action of an amenable group. Examples include stationary random fields, exchangeable sequences, and exchangeable graphs. A celebrated result of E. Lindenstrauss shows that normalized sums over certain increasing subsets of such groups approximate expectations. Our results clarify that the corresponding unnormalized sums of binary statistics are asymptotically Poisson, provided suitable mixing conditions hold. They extend further to randomly subsampled sums and also show that strict invariance of the distribution is not needed if the requisite mixing condition defined by the group holds. We illustrate the results with applications to random fields, Cayley graphs, and Poisson processes on groups.
Audio-visual speech separation methods aim to integrate different modalities to generate high-quality separated speech, thereby enhancing the performance of downstream tasks such as speech recognition. Most existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) models operate in the time domain. However, their overly simplistic approach to modeling acoustic features often necessitates larger and more computationally intensive models in order to achieve SOTA performance. In this paper, we present a novel time-frequency domain audio-visual speech separation method: Recurrent Time-Frequency Separation Network (RTFS-Net), which applies its algorithms on the complex time-frequency bins yielded by the Short-Time Fourier Transform. We model and capture the time and frequency dimensions of the audio independently using a multi-layered RNN along each dimension. Furthermore, we introduce a unique attention-based fusion technique for the efficient integration of audio and visual information, and a new mask separation approach that takes advantage of the intrinsic spectral nature of the acoustic features for a clearer separation. RTFS-Net outperforms the previous SOTA method using only 10% of the parameters and 18% of the MACs. This is the first time-frequency domain audio-visual speech separation method to outperform all contemporary time-domain counterparts.
In this paper we develop a linear expectile hidden Markov model for the analysis of cryptocurrency time series in a risk management framework. The methodology proposed allows to focus on extreme returns and describe their temporal evolution by introducing in the model time-dependent coefficients evolving according to a latent discrete homogeneous Markov chain. As it is often used in the expectile literature, estimation of the model parameters is based on the asymmetric normal distribution. Maximum likelihood estimates are obtained via an Expectation-Maximization algorithm using efficient M-step update formulas for all parameters. We evaluate the introduced method with both artificial data under several experimental settings and real data investigating the relationship between daily Bitcoin returns and major world market indices.
In recent years, the Adaptive Antoulas-Anderson AAA algorithm has established itself as the method of choice for solving rational approximation problems. Data-driven Model Order Reduction (MOR) of large-scale Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) systems represents one of the many applications in which this algorithm has proven to be successful since it typically generates reduced-order models (ROMs) efficiently and in an automated way. Despite its effectiveness and numerical reliability, the classical AAA algorithm is not guaranteed to return a ROM that retains the same structural features of the underlying dynamical system, such as the stability of the dynamics. In this paper, we propose a novel algebraic characterization for the stability of ROMs with transfer function obeying the AAA barycentric structure. We use this characterization to formulate a set of convex constraints on the free coefficients of the AAA model that, whenever verified, guarantee by construction the asymptotic stability of the resulting ROM. We suggest how to embed such constraints within the AAA optimization routine, and we validate experimentally the effectiveness of the resulting algorithm, named stabAAA, over a set of relevant MOR applications.
Semivariance is a measure of the dispersion of all observations that fall above the mean or target value of a random variable and it plays an important role in life-length, actuarial and income studies. In this paper, we develop a new non-parametric test for equality of upper semi-variance. We use the U-statistic theory to derive the test statistic and then study the asymptotic properties of the test statistic. We also develop a jackknife empirical likelihood (JEL) ratio test for equality of upper Semivariance. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation studies are carried out to validate the performance of the proposed JEL-based test. We illustrate the test procedure using real data.
Sequential models, such as Recurrent Neural Networks and Neural Ordinary Differential Equations, have long suffered from slow training due to their inherent sequential nature. For many years this bottleneck has persisted, as many thought sequential models could not be parallelized. We challenge this long-held belief with our parallel algorithm that accelerates GPU evaluation of sequential models by up to 3 orders of magnitude faster without compromising output accuracy. The algorithm does not need any special structure in the sequential models' architecture, making it applicable to a wide range of architectures. Using our method, training sequential models can be more than 10 times faster than the common sequential method without any meaningful difference in the training results. Leveraging this accelerated training, we discovered the efficacy of the Gated Recurrent Unit in a long time series classification problem with 17k time samples. By overcoming the training bottleneck, our work serves as the first step to unlock the potential of non-linear sequential models for long sequence problems.
Continuous queries over data streams may suffer from blocking operations and/or unbound wait, which may delay answers until some relevant input arrives through the data stream. These delays may turn answers, when they arrive, obsolete to users who sometimes have to make decisions with no help whatsoever. Therefore, it can be useful to provide hypothetical answers - "given the current information, it is possible that X will become true at time t" - instead of no information at all. In this paper we present a semantics for queries and corresponding answers that covers such hypothetical answers, together with an online algorithm for updating the set of facts that are consistent with the currently available information.
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