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Large language models (LLMs) are able to do accurate classification with zero or only a few examples (in-context learning). We show a prompting system that enables regression with uncertainty for in-context learning with frozen LLM (GPT-3, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4) models, allowing predictions without features or architecture tuning. By incorporating uncertainty, our approach enables Bayesian optimization for catalyst or molecule optimization using natural language, eliminating the need for training or simulation. Here, we performed the optimization using the synthesis procedure of catalysts to predict properties. Working with natural language mitigates difficulty synthesizability since the literal synthesis procedure is the model's input. We showed that in-context learning could improve past a model context window (maximum number of tokens the model can process at once) as data is gathered via example selection, allowing the model to scale better. Although our method does not outperform all baselines, it requires zero training, feature selection, and minimal computing while maintaining satisfactory performance. We also find Gaussian Process Regression on text embeddings is strong at Bayesian optimization. The code is available in our GitHub repository: //github.com/ur-whitelab/BO-LIFT

As robotics technology advances, dense point cloud maps are increasingly in demand. However, dense reconstruction using a single unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) suffers from limitations in flight speed and battery power, resulting in slow reconstruction and low coverage. Cluster UAV systems offer greater flexibility and wider coverage for map building. Existing methods of cluster UAVs face challenges with accurate relative positioning, scale drift, and high-speed dense point cloud map generation. To address these issues, we propose a cluster framework for large-scale dense reconstruction and real-time collaborative localization. The front-end of the framework is an improved visual odometry which can effectively handle large-scale scenes. Collaborative localization between UAVs is enabled through a two-stage joint optimization algorithm and a relative pose optimization algorithm, effectively achieving accurate relative positioning of UAVs and mitigating scale drift. Estimated poses are used to achieve real-time dense reconstruction and fusion of point cloud maps. To evaluate the performance of our proposed method, we conduct qualitative and quantitative experiments on real-world data. The results demonstrate that our framework can effectively suppress scale drift and generate large-scale dense point cloud maps in real-time, with the reconstruction speed increasing as more UAVs are added to the system.

We study dynamic discrete choice models, where a commonly studied problem involves estimating parameters of agent reward functions (also known as "structural" parameters), using agent behavioral data. Maximum likelihood estimation for such models requires dynamic programming, which is limited by the curse of dimensionality. In this work, we present a novel algorithm that provides a data-driven method for selecting and aggregating states, which lowers the computational and sample complexity of estimation. Our method works in two stages. In the first stage, we use a flexible inverse reinforcement learning approach to estimate agent Q-functions. We use these estimated Q-functions, along with a clustering algorithm, to select a subset of states that are the most pivotal for driving changes in Q-functions. In the second stage, with these selected "aggregated" states, we conduct maximum likelihood estimation using a commonly used nested fixed-point algorithm. The proposed two-stage approach mitigates the curse of dimensionality by reducing the problem dimension. Theoretically, we derive finite-sample bounds on the associated estimation error, which also characterize the trade-off of computational complexity, estimation error, and sample complexity. We demonstrate the empirical performance of the algorithm in two classic dynamic discrete choice estimation applications.

Density-based clustering aims to find groups of similar objects (i.e., clusters) in a given dataset. Applications include, e.g., process mining and anomaly detection. It comes with two user parameters ({\epsilon}, MinPts) that determine the clustering result, but are typically unknown in advance. Thus, users need to interactively test various settings until satisfying clusterings are found. However, existing solutions suffer from the following limitations: (a) Ineffective pruning of expensive neighborhood computations. (b) Approximate clustering, where objects are falsely labeled noise. (c) Restricted parameter tuning that is limited to {\epsilon} whereas MinPts is constant, which reduces the explorable clusterings. (d) Inflexibility in terms of applicable data types and distance functions. We propose FINEX, a linear-space index that overcomes these limitations. Our index provides exact clusterings and can be queried with either of the two parameters. FINEX avoids neighborhood computations where possible and reduces the complexities of the remaining computations by leveraging fundamental properties of density-based clusters. Hence, our solution is effcient and flexible regarding data types and distance functions. Moreover, FINEX respects the original and straightforward notion of density-based clustering. In our experiments on 12 large real-world datasets from various domains, FINEX frequently outperforms state-of-the-art techniques for exact clustering by orders of magnitude.

Traditional methods for inference in change point detection often rely on a large number of observed data points and can be inaccurate in non-asymptotic settings. With the rise of mobile health and digital phenotyping studies, where patients are monitored through the use of smartphones or other digital devices, change point detection is needed in non-asymptotic settings where it may be important to identify behavioral changes that occur just days before an adverse event such as relapse or suicide. Furthermore, analytical and computationally efficient means of inference are necessary for the monitoring and online analysis of large-scale digital phenotyping cohorts. We extend the result for asymptotic tail probabilities of the likelihood ratio test to the multivariate change point detection setting, and demonstrate through simulation its inaccuracy when the number of observed data points is not large. We propose a non-asymptotic approach for inference on the likelihood ratio test, and compare the efficiency of this estimated p-value to the popular empirical p-value obtained through simulation of the null distribution. The accuracy and power of this approach relative to competing methods is demonstrated through simulation and through the detection of a change point in the behavior of a patient with schizophrenia in the week prior to relapse.

We consider the problem of ensuring confidentiality of dataset properties aggregated over many records of a dataset. Such properties can encode sensitive information, such as trade secrets or demographic data, while involving a notion of data protection different to the privacy of individual records typically discussed in the literature. In this work, we demonstrate how a distribution privacy framework can be applied to formalize such data confidentiality. We extend the Wasserstein Mechanism from Pufferfish privacy and the Gaussian Mechanism from attribute privacy to this framework, then analyze their underlying data assumptions and how they can be relaxed. We then empirically evaluate the privacy-utility tradeoffs of these mechanisms and apply them against a practical property inference attack which targets global properties of datasets. The results show that our mechanisms can indeed reduce the effectiveness of the attack while providing utility substantially greater than a crude group differential privacy baseline. Our work thus provides groundwork for theoretical mechanisms for protecting global properties of datasets along with their evaluation in practice.

Bayesian causal structure learning aims to learn a posterior distribution over directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), and the mechanisms that define the relationship between parent and child variables. By taking a Bayesian approach, it is possible to reason about the uncertainty of the causal model. The notion of modelling the uncertainty over models is particularly crucial for causal structure learning since the model could be unidentifiable when given only a finite amount of observational data. In this paper, we introduce a novel method to jointly learn the structure and mechanisms of the causal model using Variational Bayes, which we call Variational Bayes-DAG-GFlowNet (VBG). We extend the method of Bayesian causal structure learning using GFlowNets to learn not only the posterior distribution over the structure, but also the parameters of a linear-Gaussian model. Our results on simulated data suggest that VBG is competitive against several baselines in modelling the posterior over DAGs and mechanisms, while offering several advantages over existing methods, including the guarantee to sample acyclic graphs, and the flexibility to generalize to non-linear causal mechanisms.

Estimating optimal dynamic policies from offline data is a fundamental problem in dynamic decision making. In the context of causal inference, the problem is known as estimating the optimal dynamic treatment regime. Even though there exists a plethora of methods for estimation, constructing confidence intervals for the value of the optimal regime and structural parameters associated with it is inherently harder, as it involves non-linear and non-differentiable functionals of un-known quantities that need to be estimated. Prior work resorted to sub-sample approaches that can deteriorate the quality of the estimate. We show that a simple soft-max approximation to the optimal treatment regime, for an appropriately fast growing temperature parameter, can achieve valid inference on the truly optimal regime. We illustrate our result for a two-period optimal dynamic regime, though our approach should directly extend to the finite horizon case. Our work combines techniques from semi-parametric inference and $g$-estimation, together with an appropriate triangular array central limit theorem, as well as a novel analysis of the asymptotic influence and asymptotic bias of softmax approximations.

Modern datasets commonly feature both substantial missingness and many variables of mixed data types, which present significant challenges for estimation and inference. Complete case analysis, which proceeds using only the observations with fully-observed variables, is often severely biased, while model-based imputation of missing values is limited by the ability of the model to capture complex dependencies among (possibly many) variables of mixed data types. To address these challenges, we develop a novel Bayesian mixture copula for joint and nonparametric modeling of multivariate count, continuous, ordinal, and unordered categorical variables, and deploy this model for inference, prediction, and imputation of missing data. Most uniquely, we introduce a new and computationally efficient strategy for marginal distribution estimation that eliminates the need to specify any marginal models yet delivers posterior consistency for each marginal distribution and the copula parameters under missingness-at-random. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate exceptional modeling and imputation capabilities relative to competing methods, especially with mixed data types, complex missingness mechanisms, and nonlinear dependencies. We conclude with a data analysis that highlights how improper treatment of missing data can distort a statistical analysis, and how the proposed approach offers a resolution.

Implicit fields have recently shown increasing success in representing and learning 3D shapes accurately. Signed distance fields and occupancy fields are decades old and still the preferred representations, both with well-studied properties, despite their restriction to closed surfaces. With neural networks, several other variations and training principles have been proposed with the goal to represent all classes of shapes. In this paper, we develop a novel and yet a fundamental representation considering unit vectors in 3D space and call it Vector Field (VF): at each point in $\mathbb{R}^3$, VF is directed at the closest point on the surface. We theoretically demonstrate that VF can be easily transformed to surface density by computing the flux density. Unlike other standard representations, VF directly encodes an important physical property of the surface, its normal. We further show the advantages of VF representation, in learning open, closed, or multi-layered as well as piecewise planar surfaces. We compare our method on several datasets including ShapeNet where the proposed new neural implicit field shows superior accuracy in representing any type of shape, outperforming other standard methods. Code is available at //github.com/edomel/ImplicitVF.